Restless multi-armed bandits (RMAB) has been widely used to model constrained sequential decision making problems, where the state of each restless arm evolves according to a Markov chain and each state transition generates a scalar reward. However, the success of RMAB crucially relies on the availability and quality of reward signals. Unfortunately, specifying an exact reward function in practice can be challenging and even infeasible. In this paper, we introduce Pref-RMAB, a new RMAB model in the presence of preference signals, where the decision maker only observes pairwise preference feedback rather than scalar reward from the activated arms at each decision epoch. Preference feedback, however, arguably contains less information than the scalar reward, which makes Pref-RMAB seemingly more difficult. To address this challenge, we present a direct online preference learning (DOPL) algorithm for Pref-RMAB to efficiently explore the unknown environments, adaptively collect preference data in an online manner, and directly leverage the preference feedback for decision-makings. We prove that DOPL yields a sublinear regret. To our best knowledge, this is the first algorithm to ensure $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T\ln T})$ regret for RMAB with preference feedback. Experimental results further demonstrate the effectiveness of DOPL.

The Gaussian process (GP) is a Bayesian nonparametric paradigm that is widely adopted for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in a number of safety-critical applications, including robotics, healthcare, as well as surveillance. The consistency of the resulting uncertainty values however, hinges on the premise that the learning function conforms to the properties specified by the GP model, such as smoothness, periodicity and more, which may not be satisfied in practice, especially with data arriving on the fly. To combat against such model mis-specification, we propose to wed the GP with the prevailing conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free post-processing framework that produces it prediction sets with a provably valid coverage under the sole assumption of data exchangeability. However, this assumption is usually violated in the online setting, where a prediction set is sought before revealing the true label. To ensure long-term coverage guarantee, we will adaptively set the key threshold parameter based on the feedback whether the true label falls inside the prediction set. Numerical results demonstrate the merits of the online GP-CP approach relative to existing alternatives in the long-term coverage performance.

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating individual treatment effects may not suffice for truly optimal decisions. Our study addressed this issue by incorporating additional criteria, such as the estimations' uncertainty, measured by the conditional value-at-risk, commonly used in portfolio and insurance management. For continuous outcomes observable before and after treatment, we incorporated a specific prediction condition. We prioritized treatments that could yield optimal treatment effect results and lead to post-treatment outcomes more desirable than pretreatment levels, with the latter condition being called the prediction criterion. With these considerations, we propose a comprehensive methodology for multitreatment selection. Our approach ensures satisfaction of the overlap assumption, crucial for comparing outcomes for treated and control groups, by training propensity score models as a preliminary step before employing traditional causal models. To illustrate a practical application of our methodology, we applied it to the credit card limit adjustment problem. Analyzing a fintech company's historical data, we found that relying solely on counterfactual predictions was inadequate for appropriate credit line modifications. Incorporating our proposed additional criteria significantly enhanced policy performance.

Screening is important for the diagnosis and treatment of a wide variety of diseases. A good screening policy should be personalized to the features of the patient and to the dynamic history of the patient (including the history of screening). The growth of electronic health records data has led to the development of many models to predict the onset and progression of different diseases. However, there has been limited work to address the personalized screening for these different diseases. In this work, we develop the first framework to construct screening policies for a large class of disease models.

In this paper, we propose to adopt the diffusion approximation tools to study the dynamics of Oja's iteration which is an online stochastic gradient descent method for the principal component analysis. Oja's iteration maintains a running estimate of the true principal component from streaming data and enjoys less temporal and spatial complexities. We show that the Oja's iteration for the top eigenvector generates a continuous-state discrete-time Markov chain over the unit sphere. We characterize the Oja's iteration in three phases using diffusion approximation and weak convergence tools. Our three-phase analysis further provides a finite-sample error bound for the running estimate, which matches the minimax information lower bound for principal component analysis under the additional assumption of bounded samples.

We propose introspective convolutional networks (ICN) that emphasize the importance of having convolutional neural networks empowered with generative capabilities. We employ a reclassification-by-synthesis algorithm to perform training using a formulation stemmed from the Bayes theory. Our ICN tries to iteratively: (1) synthesize pseudo-negative samples; and (2) enhance itself by improving the classification. The single CNN classifier learned is at the same time generative -- being able to directly synthesize new samples within its own discriminative model. We conduct experiments on benchmark datasets including MNIST, CIFAR-10, and SVHN using state-of-the-art CNN architectures, and observe improved classification results.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) algorithms have become increasingly popular for Bayesian inference in large-scale applications. Even though these methods have proved useful in several scenarios, their performance is often limited by their bias. In this study, we propose a novel sampling algorithm that aims to reduce the bias of SG-MCMC while keeping the variance at a reasonable level. Our approach is based on a numerical sequence acceleration method, namely the Richardson-Romberg extrapolation, which simply boils down to running almost the same SG-MCMC algorithm twice in parallel with different step sizes. We illustrate our framework on the popular Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) algorithm and propose a novel SG-MCMC algorithm referred to as Stochastic Gradient Richardson-Romberg Langevin Dynamics (SGRRLD). We provide formal theoretical analysis and show that SGRRLD is asymptotically consistent, satisfies a central limit theorem, and its non-asymptotic bias and the mean squared-error can be bounded. Our results show that SGRRLD attains higher rates of convergence than SGLD in both finite-time and asymptotically, and it achieves the theoretical accuracy of the methods that are based on higher-order integrators. We support our findings using both synthetic and real data experiments.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Clustering is a key component in any data analysis toolbox.