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 Learning Graphical Models


Learning in complex action spaces without policy gradients

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conventional wisdom suggests that policy gradient methods are better suited to complex action spaces than action-value methods. However, foundational studies have shown equivalences between these paradigms in small and finite action spaces (O'Donoghue et al., 2017; Schulman et al., 2017a). This raises the question of why their computational applicability and performance diverge as the complexity of the action space increases. We hypothesize that the apparent superiority of policy gradients in such settings stems not from intrinsic qualities of the paradigm, but from universal principles that can also be applied to action-value methods to serve similar functionality. We identify three such principles and provide a framework for incorporating them into action-value methods. To support our hypothesis, we instantiate this framework in what we term QMLE, for Q-learning with maximum likelihood estimation. Our results show that QMLE can be applied to complex action spaces with a controllable computational cost that is comparable to that of policy gradient methods, all without using policy gradients. Furthermore, QMLE demonstrates strong performance on the DeepMind Control Suite, even when compared to the state-of-the-art methods such as DMPO and D4PG.


Temperature Optimization for Bayesian Deep Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Cold Posterior Effect (CPE) is a phenomenon in Bayesian Deep Learning (BDL), where tempering the posterior to a cold temperature often improves the predictive performance of the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). Although the term `CPE' suggests colder temperatures are inherently better, the BDL community increasingly recognizes that this is not always the case. Despite this, there remains no systematic method for finding the optimal temperature beyond grid search. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach to select the temperature that maximizes test log-predictive density, treating the temperature as a model parameter and estimating it directly from the data. We empirically demonstrate that our method performs comparably to grid search, at a fraction of the cost, across both regression and classification tasks. Finally, we highlight the differing perspectives on CPE between the BDL and Generalized Bayes communities: while the former primarily focuses on predictive performance of the PPD, the latter emphasizes calibrated uncertainty and robustness to model misspecification; these distinct objectives lead to different temperature preferences.


Cooperative and Asynchronous Transformer-based Mission Planning for Heterogeneous Teams of Mobile Robots

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Coordinating heterogeneous teams of mobile robots for tasks such as search and rescue is highly challenging. This is due to the complexities of perception, decision making and planning in such environments, with agents' non-synchronous operation, constrained communication, and limited computational resources. This paper presents the Cooperative and Asynchronous Transformer-based Mission Planning (CATMiP) framework, which leverages multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to effectively coordinate agents with heterogeneous sensing, motion, and actuation capabilities. The framework introduces a Class-based Macro-Action Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (CMD-POMDP) model to handle asynchronous decision-making among different agent classes via macro-actions. It also extends the Multi-Agent Transformer (MAT) architecture to facilitate distributed, ad hoc communication among the agents. CATMiP easily adapts to mission complexities and communication constraints, and scales to varying environment sizes and team compositions. Simulations demonstrate its scalability and ability to achieve cooperative mission objectives with two classes of explorer and rescuer agents, even under severe communication constraints. The code is available at https://github.com/mylad13/CATMiP.


Reviews: Data-Efficient Reinforcement Learning in Continuous State-Action Gaussian-POMDPs

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper describes an extension to the PILCO algorithm (Probabilistic Inference and Learning for COntrol, a data-efficient reinforcement algorithm). The proposed algorithm applies a measurement filtering algorithm during the actual experiment and explicitly takes this measurement filtering algorithm into account during the policy learning step, which uses data from the experiment. This is an important practical extension addressing the fact that measurements are often very noisy. My intuitive explanation for this approach is that the proposed approach makes the overall feedback system more "repeatable" (noise is mostly filtered out) and therefore learning is faster (given that the filtering is effective, see last sentence of the conclusion). The paper presents detailed mathematical derivations and strong simulation results that highlight the properties of the proposed algorithm.


Reviews: Predictive Approximate Bayesian Computation via Saddle Points

Neural Information Processing Systems

I am happy with all of your responses, though slightly confused over Q2 (rev2). One can't draw samples from improper priors in the first place, and other techniques (such as Rodrigues et al) won't save you there. You simply need to draw your samples from a distribution that is not the prior. I am still positively inclined towards this paper, and following the response and comparison to EP-ABC I will increase my score to 7 (from 6). Of course when the prior is improper or merely diffuse with respect to the posterior this will be impossible or at best highly inefficient.


Reviews: Learning Unknown Markov Decision Processes: A Thompson Sampling Approach

Neural Information Processing Systems

The paper proposes TSDE, a posterior sampling algorithm for RL in the average reward infinite horizon setting. This algorithm uses dynamic episodes but unlike Lazy-PSRL avoids technical issues by not only terminating an episode when an observation count doubled but also terminating episodes when they become too long. This ensures that the episode length cannot grow faster than linear and ultimately a Bayesian regret bound of O(HS(AT) .5) is shown. Posterior sampling methods typically outperform UCB-type algorithms and therefore a posterior sampling algorithm for non-episodic RL with rigorous regret bounds is desirable. This paper proposes such an algorithm, which is of high interest.


Reviews: Entropy Rate Estimation for Markov Chains with Large State Space

Neural Information Processing Systems

The paper proposes an entropy estimate for Markov chains by reduction to optimal entropy estimation for i.i.d samples. Sample complexity analysis is provided for different mixing scenarios with a minimax rate established for a particular rate. The estimator is used to assess the capacity of language models. This is a very clear and well-written paper. I appreciate the efforts done by the authors to summarize the results.


Reviews: Constructing Deep Neural Networks by Bayesian Network Structure Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

The presented method learns a structure of a deep ANN by first learning a BN and then constructing the ANN from this BN. The authors state that they "propose a new interpretation for depth and inter-layer connectivity in deep neural networks". Neurons in deep layers represent low-order conditional independencies (ie small conditioning set) and those in'early' (non-deep) layers represent high-order CI relationships. These are all CI relations in the "X" ie the input vector of (observed) random variables. Perhaps I am missing something here but I could not find an argument as to why this is a principled way to build deep ANNs with good performance.


Reviews: A Bayesian Approach to Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

It seems that this could perhaps be expressed more concisely using the output of the discriminator (and the true label) as functions, rather than introducing new random variables. Further, it seems the algorithm is described in sufficient detail to be re-implemented. The experiments are missing some detail to be reproduced or interpreted (e.g.


Reviews: Robust Conditional Probabilities

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper studies the problem of computing probability bounds, more specifically bounds over probability of atoms of the joint space and conditional probabilities of the class, under the assumption that only some pairwise marginal as well as some univariate marginal values are known. The idea is that such marginals may be easier to obtain than fully specified probabilities, and that cautious inferences can then be used to produce predictions. It is shown that when the marginals follow a tree structure (results are extended to a few other structures), then the problem can actually be solved in closed, analytical form, relating it to cover set and maximum flow problems. Some experiments performed on neural networks show that this simple method is actually competitive with other more complex approaches (Ladder, VAE), while outperforming methods of comparable complexity. The paper is elegantly written, with quite understandable and significant results.