Inference, estimation, sampling and likelihood evaluation are four primary goals of probabilistic modeling. Practical considerations often force modeling approaches to make compromises between these objectives. We present a novel probabilistic learning framework, called Fenchel Mini-Max Learning (FML), that accommodates all four desiderata in a flexible and scalable manner. Our derivation is rooted in classical maximum likelihood estimation, and it overcomes a longstanding challenge that prevents unbiased estimation of unnormalized statistical models. By reformulating MLE as a mini-max game, FML enjoys an unbiased training objective that (i) does not explicitly involve the intractable normalizing constant and (ii) is directly amendable to stochastic gradient descent optimization.

A fundamental problem of causal discovery is cause-effect inference, to learn the correct causal direction between two random variables. Significant progress has been made through modelling the effect as a function of its cause and a noise term, which allows us to leverage assumptions about the generating function class. The recently introduced heteroscedastic location-scale noise functional models (LSNMs) combine expressive power with identifiability guarantees. LSNM model selection based on maximizing likelihood achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, when the noise distributions are correctly specified. However, through an extensive empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that the accuracy deteriorates sharply when the form of the noise distribution is misspecified by the user.

This paper re-examines a continuous optimization framework dubbed NOTEARS for learning Bayesian networks. We first generalize existing algebraic characterizations of acyclicity to a class of matrix polynomials. Next, focusing on a one-parameter-per-edge setting, it is shown that the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) optimality conditions for the NOTEARS formulation cannot be satisfied except in a trivial case, which explains a behavior of the associated algorithm. We then derive the KKT conditions for an equivalent reformulation, show that they are indeed necessary, and relate them to explicit constraints that certain edges be absent from the graph. If the score function is convex, these KKT conditions are also sufficient for local minimality despite the non-convexity of the constraint.

Gibbs sampling is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method that is often used for learning and inference on graphical models. Minibatching, in which a small random subset of the graph is used at each iteration, can help make Gibbs sampling scale to large graphical models by reducing its computational cost. In this paper, we propose a new auxiliary-variable minibatched Gibbs sampling method, {\it Poisson-minibatching Gibbs}, which both produces unbiased samples and has a theoretical guarantee on its convergence rate. In comparison to previous minibatched Gibbs algorithms, Poisson-minibatching Gibbs supports fast sampling from continuous state spaces and avoids the need for a Metropolis-Hastings correction on discrete state spaces. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on multiple applications and in comparison with both plain Gibbs and previous minibatched methods.

We study a multi-armed bandit problem where the rewards exhibit regime switching. Specifically, the distributions of the random rewards generated from all arms are modulated by a common underlying state modeled as a finite-state Markov chain. The agent does not observe the underlying state and has to learn the transition matrix and the reward distributions. We propose a learning algorithm for this problem, building on spectral method-of-moments estimations for hidden Markov models, belief error control in partially observable Markov decision processes and upper-confidence-bound methods for online learning. We also establish an upper bound O(T {2/3}\sqrt{\log T}) for the proposed learning algorithm where T is the learning horizon. Finally, we conduct proof-of-concept experiments to illustrate the performance of the learning algorithm.

Probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFGs) and dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are widely used sequence models with complementary strengths and limitations. While PCFGs allow for nested hierarchical dependencies (tree structures), their latent variables (non-terminal symbols) have to be discrete. In contrast, DBNs allow for continuous latent variables, but the dependencies are strictly sequential (chain structure). Therefore, neither can be applied if the latent variables are assumed to be continuous and also to have a nested hierarchical dependency structure. In this paper, we present Recursive Bayesian Networks (RBNs), which generalise and unify PCFGs and DBNs, combining their strengths and containing both as special cases.

We analyze the complexity of learning directed acyclic graphical models from observational data in general settings without specific distributional assumptions. Our approach is information-theoretic and uses a local Markov boundary search procedure in order to recursively construct ancestral sets in the underlying graphical model. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that for certain graph ensembles, a simple forward greedy search algorithm (i.e. This substantially improves the sample complexity, which we show is at most polynomial in the number of nodes. This is then applied to learn the entire graph under a novel identifiability condition that generalizes existing conditions from the literature.

Using deep latent variable models in causal inference has attracted considerable interest recently, but an essential open question is their ability to yield consistent causal estimates. While they have demonstrated promising results and theory exists on some simple model formulations, we also know that causal effects are not even identifiable in general with latent variables. We investigate this gap between theory and empirical results with analytical considerations and extensive experiments under multiple synthetic and real-world data sets, using the causal effect variational autoencoder (CEVAE) as a case study. While CEVAE seems to work reliably under some simple scenarios, it does not estimate the causal effect correctly with a misspecified latent variable or a complex data distribution, as opposed to its original motivation. Hence, our results show that more attention should be paid to ensuring the correctness of causal estimates with deep latent variable models.

Given a sequence of convex functions f_0, f_1, \ldots, f_T, we study the problem of sampling from the Gibbs distribution \pi_t \propto e {-\sum_{k 0} t f_k} for each epoch t in an {\em online} manner. Interest in this problem derives from applications in machine learning, Bayesian statistics, and optimization where, rather than obtaining all the observations at once, one constantly acquires new data, and must continuously update the distribution. Our main result is an algorithm that generates roughly independent samples from \pi_t for every epoch t and, under mild assumptions, makes \mathrm{polylog}(T) gradient evaluations per epoch. All previous results imply a bound on the number of gradient or function evaluations which is at least linear in T . Motivated by real-world applications, we assume that functions are smooth, their associated distributions have a bounded second moment, and their minimizer drifts in a bounded manner, but do not assume they are strongly convex.

We study the \emph{offline reinforcement learning} (offline RL) problem, where the goal is to learn a reward-maximizing policy in an unknown \emph{Markov Decision Process} (MDP) using the data coming from a policy \mu . In particular, we consider the sample complexity problems of offline RL for the finite horizon MDPs. Prior works derive the information-theoretical lower bounds based on different data-coverage assumptions and their upper bounds are expressed by the covering coefficients which lack the explicit characterization of system quantities. Here \pi \star is a optimal policy, \mu is the behavior policy and d(s_h,a_h) is the marginal state-action probability. We call this adaptive bound the \emph{intrinsic offline reinforcement learning bound} since it directly implies all the existing optimal results: minimax rate under uniform data-coverage assumption, horizon-free setting, single policy concentrability, and the tight problem-dependent results.