We consider the problem of offline reinforcement learning (RL) --- a well-motivated setting of RL that aims at policy optimization using only historical data. Despite its wide applicability, theoretical understandings of offline RL, such as its optimal sample complexity, remain largely open even in basic settings such as \emph{tabular} Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). In this paper, we propose \emph{Off-Policy Double Variance Reduction} (OPDVR), a new variance reduction-based algorithm for offline RL. Our main result shows that OPDVR provably identifies an \epsilon -optimal policy with \widetilde{O}(H 2/d_m\epsilon 2) episodes of offline data in the finite-horizon \emph{stationary transition} setting, where H is the horizon length and d_m is the minimal marginal state-action distribution induced by the behavior policy. This improves over the best-known upper bound by a factor of H .

We give methods for Bayesian inference of directed acyclic graphs, DAGs, and the induced causal effects from passively observed complete data. Our methods build on a recent Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for learning Bayesian networks, which enables efficient approximate sampling from the graph posterior, provided that each node is assigned a small number K of candidate parents. We present algorithmic techniques to significantly reduce the space and time requirements, which make the use of substantially larger values of K feasible. Furthermore, we investigate the problem of selecting the candidate parents per node so as to maximize the covered posterior mass. Finally, we combine our sampling method with a novel Bayesian approach for estimating causal effects in linear Gaussian DAG models.

We consider Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) where the rewards are unknown and may change in an adversarial manner. We provide an algorithm that achieves a regret bound of O( \sqrt{\tau (\ln S \ln A)T}\ln(T)), where S is the state space, A is the action space, \tau is the mixing time of the MDP, and T is the number of periods. The algorithm's computational complexity is polynomial in S and A . We then consider a setting often encountered in practice, where the state space of the MDP is too large to allow for exact solutions. By approximating the state-action occupancy measures with a linear architecture of dimension d\ll S, we propose a modified algorithm with a computational complexity polynomial in d and independent of S .

Graphical models are powerful tools for modeling high-dimensional data, but learning graphical models in the presence of latent variables is well-known to be difficult. In this work we give new results for learning Restricted Boltzmann Machines, probably the most well-studied class of latent variable models. Our results are based on new connections to learning two-layer neural networks under \ell_{\infty} bounded input; for both problems, we give nearly optimal results under the conjectured hardness of sparse parity with noise. Using the connection between RBMs and feedforward networks, we also initiate the theoretical study of {\em supervised RBMs} \citep{hinton2012practical}, a version of neural-network learning that couples distributional assumptions induced from the underlying graphical model with the architecture of the unknown function class. We then give an algorithm for learning a natural class of supervised RBMs with better runtime than what is possible for its related class of networks without distributional assumptions.

We show that the matrix perspective function, which is jointly convex in the Cartesian product of a standard Euclidean vector space and a conformal space of symmetric matrices, has a proximity operator in an almost closed form. The only implicit part is to solve a semismooth, univariate root finding problem. We uncover the connection between our problem of study and the matrix nearness problem. Through this connection, we propose a quadratically convergent Newton algorithm for the root finding problem.Experiments verify that the evaluation of the proximity operator requires at most 8 Newton steps, taking less than 5s for 2000 by 2000 matrices on a standard laptop. Using this routine as a building block, we demonstrate the usefulness of the studied proximity operator in constrained maximum likelihood estimation of Gaussian mean and covariance, peudolikelihood-based graphical model selection, and a matrix variant of the scaled lasso problem.

Variational Inference is a powerful tool in the Bayesian modeling toolkit, however, its effectiveness is determined by the expressivity of the utilized variational distributions in terms of their ability to match the true posterior distribution. In turn, the expressivity of the variational family is largely limited by the requirement of having a tractable density function. To overcome this roadblock, we introduce a new family of variational upper bounds on a marginal log-density in the case of hierarchical models (also known as latent variable models). We then derive a family of increasingly tighter variational lower bounds on the otherwise intractable standard evidence lower bound for hierarchical variational distributions, enabling the use of more expressive approximate posteriors. We show that previously known methods, such as Hierarchical Variational Models, Semi-Implicit Variational Inference and Doubly Semi-Implicit Variational Inference can be seen as special cases of the proposed approach, and empirically demonstrate superior performance of the proposed method in a set of experiments.

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are flexible density estimators and have received significant attention due to their attractive inference properties. While parameter learning in SPNs is well developed, structure learning leaves something to be desired: Even though there is a plethora of SPN structure learners, most of them are somewhat ad-hoc and based on intuition rather than a clear learning principle. In this paper, we introduce a well-principled Bayesian framework for SPN structure learning. The first is rather unproblematic and akin to neural network architecture validation. The second represents the effective structure of the SPN and needs to respect the usual structural constraints in SPN, i.e. completeness and decomposability.

Multivariate zero-inflated count data arise in a wide range of areas such as economics, social sciences, and biology. To infer causal relationships in zero-inflated count data, we propose a new zero-inflated Poisson Bayesian network (ZIPBN) model. We show that the proposed ZIPBN is identifiable with cross-sectional data. The proof is based on the well-known characterization of Markov equivalence class which is applicable to other distribution families. For causal structural learning, we introduce a fully Bayesian inference approach which exploits the parallel tempering Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently explore the multi-modal network space.

We propose SmoothCruiser, a new planning algorithm for estimating the value function in entropy-regularized Markov decision processes and two-player games, given a generative model of the SmoothCruiser. SmoothCruiser makes use of the smoothness of the Bellman operator promoted by the regularization to achieve problem-independent sample complexity of order \tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\epsilon 4) for a desired accuracy \epsilon, whereas for non-regularized settings there are no known algorithms with guaranteed polynomial sample complexity in the worst case.

We study the problem of inferring time-varying Gaussian Markov random fields, where the underlying graphical model is both sparse and changes {sparsely} over time. Most of the existing methods for the inference of time-varying Markov random fields (MRFs) rely on the \textit{regularized maximum likelihood estimation} (MLE), that typically suffer from weak statistical guarantees and high computational time. Instead, we introduce a new class of constrained optimization problems for the inference of sparsely-changing Gaussian MRFs (GMRFs). The proposed optimization problem is formulated based on the exact \ell_0 regularization, and can be solved in near-linear time and memory. Moreover, we show that the proposed estimator enjoys a provably small estimation error.