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 Learning Graphical Models


Revisiting Hierarchical Text Classification: Inference and Metrics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hierarchical text classification (HTC) is the task of assigning labels to a text within a structured space organized as a hierarchy. Recent works treat HTC as a conventional multilabel classification problem, therefore evaluating it as such. We instead propose to evaluate models based on specifically designed hierarchical metrics and we demonstrate the intricacy of metric choice and prediction inference method. We introduce a new challenging dataset and we evaluate fairly, recent sophisticated models, comparing them with a range of simple but strong baselines, including a new theoretically motivated loss. Finally, we show that those baselines are very often competitive with the latest models. This highlights the importance of carefully considering the evaluation methodology when proposing new methods for HTC. Code implementation and dataset are available at \url{https://github.com/RomanPlaud/revisitingHTC}.


Simplified POMDP Planning with an Alternative Observation Space and Formal Performance Guarantees

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online planning under uncertainty in partially observable domains is an essential capability in robotics and AI. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a mathematically principled framework for addressing decision-making problems in this challenging setting. However, finding an optimal solution for POMDPs is computationally expensive and is feasible only for small problems. In this work, we contribute a novel method to simplify POMDPs by switching to an alternative, more compact, observation space and simplified model to speedup planning with formal performance guarantees. We introduce the notion of belief tree topology, which encodes the levels and branches in the tree that use the original and alternative observation space and models. Each belief tree topology comes with its own policy space and planning performance. Our key contribution is to derive bounds between the optimal Q-function of the original POMDP and the simplified tree defined by a given topology with a corresponding simplified policy space. These bounds are then used as an adaptation mechanism between different tree topologies until the optimal action of the original POMDP can be determined. Further, we consider a specific instantiation of our framework, where the alternative observation space and model correspond to a setting where the state is fully observable. We evaluate our approach in simulation, considering exact and approximate POMDP solvers and demonstrating a significant speedup while preserving solution quality. We believe this work opens new exciting avenues for online POMDP planning with formal performance guarantees.


Multi-Agent Actor-Critics in Autonomous Cyber Defense

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The need for autonomous and adaptive defense mechanisms has become paramount in the rapidly evolving landscape of cyber threats. Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning (MADRL) presents a promising approach to enhancing the efficacy and resilience of autonomous cyber operations. This paper explores the application of Multi-Agent Actor-Critic algorithms which provides a general form in Multi-Agent learning to cyber defense, leveraging the collaborative interactions among multiple agents to detect, mitigate, and respond to cyber threats. We demonstrate each agent is able to learn quickly and counter act on the threats autonomously using MADRL in simulated cyber-attack scenarios. The results indicate that MADRL can significantly enhance the capability of autonomous cyber defense systems, paving the way for more intelligent cybersecurity strategies. This study contributes to the growing body of knowledge on leveraging artificial intelligence for cybersecurity and sheds light for future research and development in autonomous cyber operations.


DFM: Interpolant-free Dual Flow Matching

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) can model data distributions with expressive infinite-length architectures. But this modeling involves computationally expensive process of solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE) during maximum likelihood training. Recently proposed flow matching (FM) framework allows to substantially simplify the training phase using a regression objective with the interpolated forward vector field. In this paper, we propose an interpolant-free dual flow matching (DFM) approach without explicit assumptions about the modeled vector field. DFM optimizes the forward and, additionally, a reverse vector field model using a novel objective that facilitates bijectivity of the forward and reverse transformations. Our experiments with the SMAP unsupervised anomaly detection show advantages of DFM when compared to the CNF trained with either maximum likelihood or FM objectives with the state-of-the-art performance metrics.


Drama: Mamba-Enabled Model-Based Reinforcement Learning Is Sample and Parameter Efficient

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) offers a solution to the data inefficiency that plagues most model-free RL algorithms. However, learning a robust world model often demands complex and deep architectures, which are expensive to compute and train. Within the world model, dynamics models are particularly crucial for accurate predictions, and various dynamics-model architectures have been explored, each with its own set of challenges. Currently, recurrent neural network (RNN) based world models face issues such as vanishing gradients and difficulty in capturing long-term dependencies effectively. In contrast, use of transformers suffers from the well-known issues of self-attention mechanisms, where both memory and computational complexity scale as $O(n^2)$, with $n$ representing the sequence length. To address these challenges we propose a state space model (SSM) based world model, specifically based on Mamba, that achieves $O(n)$ memory and computational complexity while effectively capturing long-term dependencies and facilitating the use of longer training sequences efficiently. We also introduce a novel sampling method to mitigate the suboptimality caused by an incorrect world model in the early stages of training, combining it with the aforementioned technique to achieve a normalised score comparable to other state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms using only a 7 million trainable parameter world model. This model is accessible and can be trained on an off-the-shelf laptop. Our code is available at https://github.com/realwenlongwang/drama.git.


Analyzing Probabilistic Methods for Evaluating Agent Capabilities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To mitigate risks from AI systems, we need to assess their capabilities accurately. This is especially difficult in cases where capabilities are only rarely displayed. Phuong et al. [12] propose two methods that aim to obtain better estimates of the probability of an AI agent successfully completing a given task. The milestone method decomposes tasks into subtasks, aiming to improve overall success rate estimation, while the expert best-of-N method leverages human guidance as a proxy for the model's independent performance. Our analysis of these methods as Monte Carlo estimators reveals that while both effectively reduce variance compared to naive Monte Carlo sampling, they also introduce bias. Experimental results demonstrate that the milestone method underestimates true solve rates for many real-world tasks due to its constraining assumptions. The expert best-of-N method exhibits even more severe underestimation across all tasks, attributed to an inherently flawed re-weighting factor. To enhance the accuracy of capability estimates of AI agents on difficult tasks, we suggest future work should leverage the rich literature on Monte Carlo Estimators.


Optimal Downsampling for Imbalanced Classification with Generalized Linear Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Downsampling or under-sampling is a technique that is utilized in the context of large and highly imbalanced classification models. We study optimal downsampling for imbalanced classification using generalized linear models (GLMs). We propose a pseudo maximum likelihood estimator and study its asymptotic normality in the context of increasingly imbalanced populations relative to an increasingly large sample size. We provide theoretical guarantees for the introduced estimator. Additionally, we compute the optimal downsampling rate using a criterion that balances statistical accuracy and computational efficiency. Our numerical experiments, conducted on both synthetic and empirical data, further validate our theoretical results, and demonstrate that the introduced estimator outperforms commonly available alternatives.


Linear-cost unbiased posterior estimates for crossed effects and matrix factorization models via couplings

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent years, unbiased Markov Chain Monte Carlo via couplings (UMCMC) has emerged as a promising framework to remove bias from MCMC estimates, thus potentially allowing for early stopping, simplifying the convergence diagnostic process and facilitating parallelization (Glynn and Rhee, 2014; Jacob et al., 2020). In UMCMC, coupled chains are run for a random number of iterations (at least up to coalescence) and their values are combined to produce unbiased estimates. A natural question that arises is whether this class of estimates incurs a greater computational cost than conventional MCMC based on simple ergodic averages and to quantify this potential difference. Framing the question differently, one may ask whether it is possible to devise UMCMC methods with computational cost matching top performing MCMCs, while enjoying the above mentioned benefits. On a different line of research, various works showed how carefully designed blocked Gibbs Samplers (BGSs), i.e. Gibbs sampling schemes that update entire blocks of coordinates jointly, can achieve state-of-the-art performances for sampling from the posterior distributions of various challenging high-dimensional Bayesian models, such as non-nested models with crossed dependencies (Papaspiliopoulos et al., 2019, 2023). In particular, BGSs achieve linear computational costs in the number of parameters and observations in asymptotic regimes where both diverge to infinity.


Calibration of Shared Equilibria in General Sum Partially Observable Markov Games

Neural Information Processing Systems

Training multi-agent systems (MAS) to achieve realistic equilibria gives us a useful tool to understand and model real-world systems. We consider a general sum partially observable Markov game where agents of different types share a single policy network, conditioned on agent-specific information. This paper aims at i) formally understanding equilibria reached by such agents, and ii) matching emergent phenomena of such equilibria to real-world targets. Parameter sharing with decentralized execution has been introduced as an efficient way to train multiple agents using a single policy network. However, the nature of resulting equilibria reached by such agents has not been yet studied: we introduce the novel concept of Shared equilibrium as a symmetric pure Nash equilibrium of a certain Functional Form Game (FFG) and prove convergence to the latter for a certain class of games using self-play.


Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader for Adversarial Markov Decision Processes with Bandit Feedback

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider regret minimization for Adversarial Markov Decision Processes (AMDPs), where the loss functions are changing over time and adversarially chosen, and the learner only observes the losses for the visited state-action pairs (i.e., bandit feedback). While there has been a surge of studies on this problem using Online-Mirror-Descent (OMD) methods, very little is known about the Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FTPL) methods, which are usually computationally more efficient and also easier to implement since it only requires solving an offline planning problem. Motivated by this, we take a closer look at FTPL for learning AMDPs, starting from the standard episodic finite-horizon setting. We find some unique and intriguing difficulties in the analysis and propose a workaround to eventually show that FTPL is also able to achieve near-optimal regret bounds in this case. More importantly, we then find two significant applications: First, the analysis of FTPL turns out to be readily generalizable to delayed bandit feedback with order-optimal regret, while OMD methods exhibit extra difficulties (Jin et al., 2022).