Although existing variational graph autoencoders (VGAEs) have been widely used for modeling and generating graph-structured data, most of them are still not flexible enough to approximate the sparse and skewed latent node representations, especially those of document relational networks (DRNs) with discrete observations. To analyze a collection of interconnected documents, a typical branch of Bayesian models, specifically relational topic models (RTMs), has proven their efficacy in describing both link structures and document contents of DRNs, which motives us to incorporate RTMs with existing VGAEs to alleviate their potential issues when modeling the generation of DRNs. In this paper, moving beyond the sophisticated approximate assumptions of traditional RTMs, we develop a graph Poisson factor analysis (GPFA), which provides analytic conditional posteriors to improve the inference accuracy, and extend GPFA to a multi-stochastic-layer version named graph Poisson gamma belief network (GPGBN) to capture the hierarchical document relationships at multiple semantic levels. Then, taking GPGBN as the decoder, we combine it with various Weibull-based graph inference networks, resulting in two variants of Weibull graph auto-encoder (WGAE), equipped with model inference algorithms. Experimental results demonstrate that our models can extract high-quality hierarchical latent document representations and achieve promising performance on various graph analytic tasks.

We study minimax optimal reinforcement learning in episodic factored Markov decision processes (FMDPs), which are MDPs with conditionally independent transition components. Assuming the factorization is known, we propose two model-based algorithms. The first one achieves minimax optimal regret guarantees for a rich class of factored structures, while the second one enjoys better computational complexity with a slightly worse regret. A key new ingredient of our algorithms is the design of a bonus term to guide exploration. We complement our algorithms by presenting several structure dependent lower bounds on regret for FMDPs that reveal the difficulty hiding in the intricacy of the structures.

Exact multi-label classification is the task of assigning each datapoint a set of class labels such that the assigned set exactly matches the ground truth. Optimizing for exact multi-label classification is important in domains where missing a single label can be especially costly, such as in object detection for autonomous vehicles or symptom classification for disease diagnosis. Recurrent Classifier Chains (RCCs), a recurrent neural network extension of ensemble-based classifier chains, are the state-of-the-art exact multi-label classification method for maximizing subset accuracy. However, RCCs iteratively predict classes with an unprincipled ordering, and therefore indiscriminately condition class probabilities. These disadvantages make RCCs prone to predicting inaccurate label sets. In this work we propose Recurrent Bayesian Classifier Chains (RBCCs), which learn a Bayesian network of class dependencies and leverage this network in order to condition the prediction of child nodes only on their parents.

We present two elegant solutions for modeling continuous-time dynamics, in a novel model-based reinforcement learning (RL) framework for semi-Markov decision processes (SMDPs), using neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Our models accurately characterize continuous-time dynamics and enable us to develop high-performing policies using a small amount of data. We also develop a model-based approach for optimizing time schedules to reduce interaction rates with the environment while maintaining the near-optimal performance, which is not possible for model-free methods. We experimentally demonstrate the efficacy of our methods across various continuous-time domains.

This paper considers the challenging tasks of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) under partial observability, where each agent only sees her own individual observations and actions that reveal incomplete information about the underlying state of system. This paper studies these tasks under the general model of multiplayer general-sum Partially Observable Markov Games (POMGs), which is significantly larger than the standard model of Imperfect Information Extensive-Form Games (IIEFGs). We identify a rich subclass of POMGs---weakly revealing POMGs---in which sample-efficient learning is tractable. In the self-play setting, we prove that a simple algorithm combining optimism and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is sufficient to find approximate Nash equilibria, correlated equilibria, as well as coarse correlated equilibria of weakly revealing POMGs, in a polynomial number of samples when the number of agents is small. In the setting of playing against adversarial opponents, we show that a variant of our optimistic MLE algorithm is capable of achieving sublinear regret when being compared against the optimal maximin policies.

Sparse models are desirable for many applications across diverse domains as they can perform automatic variable selection, aid interpretability, and provide regularization. When fitting sparse models in a Bayesian framework, however, analytically obtaining a posterior distribution over the parameters of interest is intractable for all but the simplest cases. As a result practitioners must rely on either sampling algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational methods to obtain an approximate posterior. Mean field variational inference is a particularly simple and popular framework that is often amenable to analytically deriving closed-form parameter updates. When all distributions in the model are members of exponential families and are conditionally conjugate, optimization schemes can often be derived by hand.

We consider the question of learning the natural parameters of a k parameter \textit{minimal} exponential family from i.i.d. We focus on the setting where the support as well as the natural parameters are appropriately bounded. While the traditional maximum likelihood estimator for this class of exponential family is consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient, evaluating it is computationally hard. In this work, we propose a computationally efficient estimator that is consistent as well as asymptotically normal under mild conditions. We provide finite sample guarantees to achieve an ( \ell_2) error of \alpha in the parameter estimation with sample complexity O(\mathrm{poly}(k/\alpha)) and computational complexity {O}(\mathrm{poly}(k/\alpha)) .

We consider the estimation of sparse graphical models that characterize the dependency structure of high-dimensional tensor-valued data. To facilitate the estimation of the precision matrix corresponding to each way of the tensor, we assume the data follow a tensor normal distribution whose covariance has a Kronecker product structure. The penalized maximum likelihood estimation of this model involves minimizing a non-convex objective function. In spite of the non-convexity of this estimation problem, we prove that an alternating minimization algorithm, which iteratively estimates each sparse precision matrix while fixing the others, attains an estimator with the optimal statistical rate of convergence as well as consistent graph recovery. Notably, such an estimator achieves estimation consistency with only one tensor sample, which is unobserved in previous work.

Many real-world problems that require making optimal sequences of decisions under uncertainty involve costs when the agent wishes to obtain information about its environment. We design and analyze algorithms for reinforcement learning (RL) in Action-Contingent Noiselessly Observable MDPs (ACNO-MDPs), a special class of POMDPs in which the agent can choose to either (1) fully observe the state at a cost and then act; or (2) act without any immediate observation information, relying on past observations to infer the underlying state. ACNO-MDPs arise frequently in important real-world application domains like healthcare, in which clinicians must balance the value of information gleaned from medical tests (e.g., blood-based biomarkers) with the costs of gathering that information (e.g., the costs of labor and materials required to administer such tests). We develop a PAC RL algorithm for tabular ACNO-MDPs that provides substantially tighter bounds, compared to generic POMDP-RL algorithms, on the total number of episodes exhibiting worse than near-optimal performance. For continuous-state ACNO-MDPs, we propose a novel method of incorporating observation information that, when coupled with modern RL algorithms, yields significantly faster learning compared to other POMDP-RL algorithms in several simulated environments.

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze streams of data. It approximates a new type of distribution, the population posterior, which combines the notion of a population distribution of the data with Bayesian inference in a probabilistic model. We study our method with latent Dirichlet allocation and Dirichlet process mixtures on several large-scale data sets.