Inferring atmospheric properties of exoplanets from observed spectra is key to understanding their formation, evolution, and habitability. Since traditional Bayesian approaches to atmospheric retrieval (e.g., nested sampling) are computationally expensive, a growing number of machine learning (ML) methods such as neural posterior estimation (NPE) have been proposed. We seek to make ML-based atmospheric retrieval (1) more reliable and accurate with verified results, and (2) more flexible with respect to the underlying neural networks and the choice of the assumed noise models. First, we adopt flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) as a new ML approach to atmospheric retrieval. FMPE maintains many advantages of NPE, but provides greater architectural flexibility and scalability. Second, we use importance sampling (IS) to verify and correct ML results, and to compute an estimate of the Bayesian evidence. Third, we condition our ML models on the assumed noise level of a spectrum (i.e., error bars), thus making them adaptable to different noise models. Both our noise level-conditional FMPE and NPE models perform on par with nested sampling across a range of noise levels when tested on simulated data. FMPE trains about 3 times faster than NPE and yields higher IS efficiencies. IS successfully corrects inaccurate ML results, identifies model failures via low efficiencies, and provides accurate estimates of the Bayesian evidence. FMPE is a powerful alternative to NPE for fast, amortized, and parallelizable atmospheric retrieval. IS can verify results, thus helping to build confidence in ML-based approaches, while also facilitating model comparison via the evidence ratio. Noise level conditioning allows design studies for future instruments to be scaled up, for example, in terms of the range of signal-to-noise ratios.

This paper investigates a novel lossy compression framework operating under logarithmic loss, designed to handle situations where the reconstruction distribution diverges from the source distribution. This framework is especially relevant for applications that require joint compression and retrieval, and in scenarios involving distributional shifts due to processing. We show that the proposed formulation extends the classical minimum entropy coupling framework by integrating a bottleneck, allowing for a controlled degree of stochasticity in the coupling. We explore the decomposition of the Minimum Entropy Coupling with Bottleneck (MEC-B) into two distinct optimization problems: Entropy-Bounded Information Maximization (EBIM) for the encoder, and Minimum Entropy Coupling (MEC) for the decoder. Through extensive analysis, we provide a greedy algorithm for EBIM with guaranteed performance, and characterize the optimal solution near functional mappings, yielding significant theoretical insights into the structural complexity of this problem. Furthermore, we illustrate the practical application of MEC-B through experiments in Markov Coding Games (MCGs) under rate limits. These games simulate a communication scenario within a Markov Decision Process, where an agent must transmit a compressed message from a sender to a receiver through its actions. Our experiments highlight the trade-offs between MDP rewards and receiver accuracy across various compression rates, showcasing the efficacy of our method compared to conventional compression baseline.

The discovery of causal relationships between random variables is an important yet challenging problem that has applications across many scientific domains. Differentiable causal discovery (DCD) methods are effective in uncovering causal relationships from observational data; however, these approaches often suffer from limited interpretability and face challenges in incorporating domain-specific prior knowledge. In contrast, Large Language Models (LLMs)-based causal discovery approaches have recently been shown capable of providing useful priors for causal discovery but struggle with formal causal reasoning. In this paper, we propose LLM-DCD, which uses an LLM to initialize the optimization of the maximum likelihood objective function of DCD approaches, thereby incorporating strong priors into the discovery method. To achieve this initialization, we design our objective function to depend on an explicitly defined adjacency matrix of the causal graph as its only variational parameter. Directly optimizing the explicitly defined adjacency matrix provides a more interpretable approach to causal discovery. Additionally, we demonstrate higher accuracy on key benchmarking datasets of our approach compared to state-of-the-art alternatives, and provide empirical evidence that the quality of the initialization directly impacts the quality of the final output of our DCD approach. LLM-DCD opens up new opportunities for traditional causal discovery methods like DCD to benefit from future improvements in the causal reasoning capabilities of LLMs.

The analysis of neural power spectra plays a crucial role in understanding brain function and dysfunction. While recent efforts have led to the development of methods for decomposing spectral data, challenges remain in performing statistical analysis and group-level comparisons. Here, we introduce Bayesian Spectral Decomposition (BSD), a Bayesian framework for analysing neural spectral power. BSD allows for the specification, inversion, comparison, and analysis of parametric models of neural spectra, addressing limitations of existing methods. We first establish the face validity of BSD on simulated data and show how it outperforms an established method (\fooof{}) for peak detection on artificial spectral data. We then demonstrate the efficacy of BSD on a group-level study of EEG spectra in 204 healthy subjects from the LEMON dataset. Our results not only highlight the effectiveness of BSD in model selection and parameter estimation, but also illustrate how BSD enables straightforward group-level regression of the effect of continuous covariates such as age. By using Bayesian inference techniques, BSD provides a robust framework for studying neural spectral data and their relationship to brain function and dysfunction.

Foundation Language Models (FLMs) such as BERT and its variants have achieved remarkable success in natural language processing. To date, the interpretability of FLMs has primarily relied on the attention weights in their self-attention layers. However, these attention weights only provide word-level interpretations, failing to capture higher-level structures, and are therefore lacking in readability and intuitiveness. To address this challenge, we first provide a formal definition of conceptual interpretation and then propose a variational Bayesian framework, dubbed VAriational Language Concept (VALC), to go beyond word-level interpretations and provide concept-level interpretations. Our theoretical analysis shows that our VALC finds the optimal language concepts to interpret FLM predictions. Empirical results on several real-world datasets show that our method can successfully provide conceptual interpretation for FLMs.

Many real-world sequential repair problems can be effectively modeled using monotonic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), where the system state stochastically decreases and can only be increased by performing a restorative action. This work addresses the problem of solving multi-component monotonic MDPs with both budget and capacity constraints. The budget constraint limits the total number of restorative actions and the capacity constraint limits the number of restorative actions that can be performed simultaneously. While prior methods dealt with budget constraints, including capacity constraints in prior methods leads to an exponential increase in computational complexity as the number of components in the MDP grows. We propose a two-step planning approach to address this challenge. First, we partition the components of the multi-component MDP into groups, where the number of groups is determined by the capacity constraint. We achieve this partitioning by solving a Linear Sum Assignment Problem (LSAP). Each group is then allocated a fraction of the total budget proportional to its size. This partitioning effectively decouples the large multi-component MDP into smaller subproblems, which are computationally feasible because the capacity constraint is simplified and the budget constraint can be addressed using existing methods. Subsequently, we use a meta-trained PPO agent to obtain an approximately optimal policy for each group. To validate our approach, we apply it to the problem of scheduling repairs for a large group of industrial robots, constrained by a limited number of repair technicians and a total repair budget. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms baseline approaches in terms of maximizing the average uptime of the robot swarm, particularly for large swarm sizes.

Experience goods such as sporting and artistic events, songs, videos, news stories, podcasts, and television series, are often packaged and consumed in bundles. Many such bundles are ordered in the sense that the individual items are consumed sequentially, one at a time. We examine if an individual's decision to consume the next item in an ordered bundle can be predicted based on his/her consumption pattern for the preceding items. We evaluate several predictive models, including two custom Transformers using decoder-only and encoder-decoder architectures, fine-tuned GPT-3, a custom LSTM model, a reinforcement learning model, two Markov models, and a zero-order model. Using data from Spotify, we find that the custom Transformer with a decoder-only architecture provides the most accurate predictions, both for individual choices and aggregate demand. This model captures a general form of state dependence. Analysis of Transformer attention weights suggests that the consumption of the next item in a bundle is based on approximately equal weighting of all preceding choices. Our results indicate that the Transformer can assist in queuing the next item that an individual is likely to consume from an ordered bundle, predicting the demand for individual items, and personalizing promotions to increase demand.

We propose an importance sampling method for tractable and efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings, named Exogenous Matching. By minimizing a common upper bound of counterfactual estimators, we transform the variance minimization problem into a conditional distribution learning problem, enabling its integration with existing conditional distribution modeling approaches. We validate the theoretical results through experiments under various types and settings of Structural Causal Models (SCMs) and demonstrate the outperformance on counterfactual estimation tasks compared to other existing importance sampling methods. We also explore the impact of injecting structural prior knowledge (counterfactual Markov boundaries) on the results. Finally, we apply this method to identifiable proxy SCMs and demonstrate the unbiasedness of the estimates, empirically illustrating the applicability of the method to practical scenarios.

In the highly competitive environment of the banking industry, it is essential to precisely forecast the behavior of customers in order to maximize the effectiveness of marketing initiatives and improve financial consequences. The purpose of this research is to examine the efficacy of logit and probit models in predicting term deposit subscriptions using a Portuguese bank's direct marketing data. There are several demographic, economic, and behavioral characteristics in the dataset that affect the probability of subscribing. To increase model performance and provide an unbiased evaluation, the target variable was balanced, considering the inherent imbalance in the dataset. The two model's prediction abilities were evaluated using Bayesian techniques and Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). The logit model performed better than the probit model in handling this classification problem. The results highlight the relevance of model selection when dealing with complicated decision-making processes in the financial services industry and imbalanced datasets. Findings from this study shed light on how banks can optimize their decision-making processes, improve their client segmentation, and boost their marketing campaigns by utilizing machine learning models.

In this paper, we present a complete framework for quickly calibrating and administering a robust large-scale computerized adaptive test (CAT) with a small number of responses. Calibration - learning item parameters in a test - is done using AutoIRT, a new method that uses automated machine learning (AutoML) in combination with item response theory (IRT), originally proposed in [Sharpnack et al., 2024]. AutoIRT trains a non-parametric AutoML grading model using item features, followed by an item-specific parametric model, which results in an explanatory IRT model. In our work, we use tabular AutoML tools (AutoGluon.tabular, [Erickson et al., 2020]) along with BERT embeddings and linguistically motivated NLP features. In this framework, we use Bayesian updating to obtain test taker ability posterior distributions for administration and scoring. For administration of our adaptive test, we propose the BanditCAT framework, a methodology motivated by casting the problem in the contextual bandit framework and utilizing item response theory (IRT). The key insight lies in defining the bandit reward as the Fisher information for the selected item, given the latent test taker ability from IRT assumptions. We use Thompson sampling to balance between exploring items with different psychometric characteristics and selecting highly discriminative items that give more precise information about ability. To control item exposure, we inject noise through an additional randomization step before computing the Fisher information. This framework was used to initially launch two new item types on the DET practice test using limited training data. We outline some reliability and exposure metrics for the 5 practice test experiments that utilized this framework.