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 Learning Graphical Models


Advancing Crime Linkage Analysis with Machine Learning: A Comprehensive Review and Framework for Data-Driven Approaches

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Crime linkage is the process of analyzing criminal behavior data to determine whether a pair or group of crime cases are connected or belong to a series of offenses. This domain has been extensively studied by researchers in sociology, psychology, and statistics. More recently, it has drawn interest from computer scientists, especially with advances in artificial intelligence. Despite this, the literature indicates that work in this latter discipline is still in its early stages. This study aims to understand the challenges faced by machine learning approaches in crime linkage and to support foundational knowledge for future data-driven methods. To achieve this goal, we conducted a comprehensive survey of the main literature on the topic and developed a general framework for crime linkage processes, thoroughly describing each step. Our goal was to unify insights from diverse fields into a shared terminology to enhance the research landscape for those intrigued by this subject.


KALAM: toolKit for Automating high-Level synthesis of Analog computing systeMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diverse computing paradigms have emerged to meet the growing needs for intelligent energy-efficient systems. The Margin Propagation (MP) framework, being one such initiative in the analog computing domain, stands out due to its scalability across biasing conditions, temperatures, and diminishing process technology nodes. However, the lack of digital-like automation tools for designing analog systems (including that of MP analog) hinders their adoption for designing large systems. The inherent scalability and modularity of MP systems present a unique opportunity in this regard. This paper introduces KALAM (toolKit for Automating high-Level synthesis of Analog computing systeMs), which leverages factor graphs as the foundational paradigm for synthesizing MP-based analog computing systems. Factor graphs are the basis of various signal processing tasks and, when coupled with MP, can be used to design scalable and energy-efficient analog signal processors. Using Python scripting language, the KALAM automation flow translates an input factor graph to its equivalent SPICE-compatible circuit netlist that can be used to validate the intended functionality. KALAM also allows the integration of design optimization strategies such as precision tuning, variable elimination, and mathematical simplification. We demonstrate KALAM's versatility for tasks such as Bayesian inference, Low-Density Parity Check (LDPC) decoding, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Simulation results of the netlists align closely with software implementations, affirming the efficacy of our proposed automation tool.


Adaptive Network Intervention for Complex Systems: A Hierarchical Graph Reinforcement Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective governance and steering of behavior in complex multi-agent systems (MAS) are essential for managing system-wide outcomes, particularly in environments where interactions are structured by dynamic networks. In many applications, the goal is to promote pro-social behavior among agents, where network structure plays a pivotal role in shaping these interactions. This paper introduces a Hierarchical Graph Reinforcement Learning (HGRL) framework that governs such systems through targeted interventions in the network structure. Operating within the constraints of limited managerial authority, the HGRL framework demonstrates superior performance across a range of environmental conditions, outperforming established baseline methods. Our findings highlight the critical influence of agent-to-agent learning (social learning) on system behavior: under low social learning, the HGRL manager preserves cooperation, forming robust core-periphery networks dominated by cooperators. In contrast, high social learning accelerates defection, leading to sparser, chain-like networks. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of the system manager's authority level in preventing system-wide failures, such as agent rebellion or collapse, positioning HGRL as a powerful tool for dynamic network-based governance.


Resource Governance in Networked Systems via Integrated Variational Autoencoders and Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a framework that integrates variational autoencoders (VAE) with reinforcement learning (RL) to balance system performance and resource usage in multi-agent systems by dynamically adjusting network structures over time. A key innovation of this method is its capability to handle the vast action space of the network structure. This is achieved by combining Variational Auto-Encoder and Deep Reinforcement Learning to control the latent space encoded from the network structures. The proposed method, evaluated on the modified OpenAI particle environment under various scenarios, not only demonstrates superior performance compared to baselines but also reveals interesting strategies and insights through the learned behaviors.


Random Heterogeneous Neurochaos Learning Architecture for Data Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inspired by the human brain's structure and function, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed for data classification. However, existing Neural Networks, including Deep Neural Networks, do not mimic the brain's rich structure. They lack key features such as randomness and neuron heterogeneity, which are inherently chaotic in their firing behavior. Neurochaos Learning (NL), a chaos-based neural network, recently employed one-dimensional chaotic maps like Generalized L\"uroth Series (GLS) and Logistic map as neurons. For the first time, we propose a random heterogeneous extension of NL, where various chaotic neurons are randomly placed in the input layer, mimicking the randomness and heterogeneous nature of human brain networks. We evaluated the performance of the newly proposed Random Heterogeneous Neurochaos Learning (RHNL) architectures combined with traditional Machine Learning (ML) methods. On public datasets, RHNL outperformed both homogeneous NL and fixed heterogeneous NL architectures in nearly all classification tasks. RHNL achieved high F1 scores on the Wine dataset (1.0), Bank Note Authentication dataset (0.99), Breast Cancer Wisconsin dataset (0.99), and Free Spoken Digit Dataset (FSDD) (0.98). These RHNL results are among the best in the literature for these datasets. We investigated RHNL performance on image datasets, where it outperformed stand-alone ML classifiers. In low training sample regimes, RHNL was the best among stand-alone ML. Our architecture bridges the gap between existing ANN architectures and the human brain's chaotic, random, and heterogeneous properties. We foresee the development of several novel learning algorithms centered around Random Heterogeneous Neurochaos Learning in the coming days.


Planning and Learning in Risk-Aware Restless Multi-Arm Bandit Problem

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In restless multi-arm bandits, a central agent is tasked with optimally distributing limited resources across several bandits (arms), with each arm being a Markov decision process. In this work, we generalize the traditional restless multi-arm bandit problem with a risk-neutral objective by incorporating risk-awareness. We establish indexability conditions for the case of a risk-aware objective and provide a solution based on Whittle index. In addition, we address the learning problem when the true transition probabilities are unknown by proposing a Thompson sampling approach and show that it achieves bounded regret that scales sublinearly with the number of episodes and quadratically with the number of arms. The efficacy of our method in reducing risk exposure in restless multi-arm bandits is illustrated through a set of numerical experiments.


Scoring Rules and Calibration for Imprecise Probabilities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring rules and calibration. For the case of imprecise probabilistic forecasts (sets of probabilities), such theory is still lacking. In this work, we therefore generalize proper scoring rules and calibration to the imprecise case. We develop these concepts as relative to data models and decision problems. As a consequence, the imprecision is embedded in a clear context. We establish a close link to the paradigm of (group) distributional robustness and in doing so provide new insights for it. We argue that proper scoring rules and calibration serve two distinct goals, which are aligned in the precise case, but intriguingly are not necessarily aligned in the imprecise case. The concept of decision-theoretic entropy plays a key role for both goals. Finally, we demonstrate the theoretical insights in machine learning practice, in particular we illustrate subtle pitfalls relating to the choice of loss function in distributional robustness.


An invariance principle based concentration result for large-scale stochastic pairwise interaction network systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study stochastic pairwise interaction network systems whereby a finite population of agents, identified with the nodes of a graph, update their states in response to both individual mutations and pairwise interactions with their neighbors. The considered class of systems include the main epidemic models -such as the SIS, SIR, and SIRS models-, certain social dynamics models -such as the voter and anti-voter models-, as well as evolutionary dynamics on graphs. Since these stochastic systems fall into the class of finite-state Markov chains, they always admit stationary distributions. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of these stationary distributions in the limit as the population size grows large while the interaction network maintains certain mixing properties. Our approach relies on the use of Lyapunov-type functions to obtain concentration results on these stationary distributions. Notably, our results are not limited to fully mixed population models, as they do apply to a much broader spectrum of interaction network structures, including, e.g., Erd\"oos-R\'enyi random graphs.


Permutation Invariant Learning with High-Dimensional Particle Filters

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sequential learning in deep models often suffers from challenges such as catastrophic forgetting and loss of plasticity, largely due to the permutation dependence of gradient-based algorithms, where the order of training data impacts the learning outcome. In this work, we introduce a novel permutation-invariant learning framework based on high-dimensional particle filters. We theoretically demonstrate that particle filters are invariant to the sequential ordering of training minibatches or tasks, offering a principled solution to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and loss-of-plasticity. We develop an efficient particle filter for optimizing high-dimensional models, combining the strengths of Bayesian methods with gradient-based optimization. Through extensive experiments on continual supervised and reinforcement learning benchmarks, including SplitMNIST, SplitCIFAR100, and ProcGen, we empirically show that our method consistently improves performance, while reducing variance compared to standard baselines.


Bayesian Collaborative Bandits with Thompson Sampling for Improved Outreach in Maternal Health Program

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mobile health (mHealth) programs face a critical challenge in optimizing the timing of automated health information calls to beneficiaries. This challenge has been formulated as a collaborative multi-armed bandit problem, requiring online learning of a low-rank reward matrix. Existing solutions often rely on heuristic combinations of offline matrix completion and exploration strategies. In this work, we propose a principled Bayesian approach using Thompson Sampling for this collaborative bandit problem. Our method leverages prior information through efficient Gibbs sampling for posterior inference over the low-rank matrix factors, enabling faster convergence. We demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines on a real-world dataset from the world's largest maternal mHealth program. Our approach achieves a $16\%$ reduction in the number of calls compared to existing methods and a $47$\% reduction compared to the deployed random policy. This efficiency gain translates to a potential increase in program capacity by $0.5-1.4$ million beneficiaries, granting them access to vital ante-natal and post-natal care information. Furthermore, we observe a $7\%$ and $29\%$ improvement in beneficiary retention (an extremely hard metric to impact) compared to state-of-the-art and deployed baselines, respectively. Synthetic simulations further demonstrate the superiority of our approach, particularly in low-data regimes and in effectively utilizing prior information. We also provide a theoretical analysis of our algorithm in a special setting using Eluder dimension.