In this work, we study probability functions associated with Gaussian mixture models. Our primary focus is on extending the use of spherical radial decomposition for multivariate Gaussian random vectors to the context of Gaussian mixture models, which are not inherently spherical but only conditionally so. Specifically, the conditional probability distribution, given a random parameter of the random vector, follows a Gaussian distribution, allowing us to apply Bayesian analysis tools to the probability function. This assumption, together with spherical radial decomposition for Gaussian random vectors, enables us to represent the probability function as an integral over the Euclidean sphere. Using this representation, we establish sufficient conditions to ensure the differentiability of the probability function and provide and integral representation of its gradient. Furthermore, leveraging the Bayesian decomposition, we approximate the probability function using random sampling over the parameter space and the Euclidean sphere. Finally, we present numerical examples that illustrate the advantages of this approach over classical approximations based on random vector sampling.

Point processes are widely used statistical models for uncovering the temporal patterns in dependent event data. In many applications, the event time cannot be observed exactly, calling for the incorporation of time uncertainty into the modeling of point process data. In this work, we introduce a framework to model time-uncertain point processes possibly on a network. We start by deriving the formulation in the continuous-time setting under a few assumptions motivated by application scenarios. After imposing a time grid, we obtain a discrete-time model that facilitates inference and can be computed by first-order optimization methods such as Gradient Descent or Variation inequality (VI) using batch-based Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). The parameter recovery guarantee is proved for VI inference at an $O(1/k)$ convergence rate using $k$ SGD steps. Our framework handles non-stationary processes by modeling the inference kernel as a matrix (or tensor on a network) and it covers the stationary process, such as the classical Hawkes process, as a special case. We experimentally show that the proposed approach outperforms previous General Linear model (GLM) baselines on simulated and real data and reveals meaningful causal relations on a Sepsis-associated Derangements dataset.

General state-space models (SSMs) are widely used in statistical machine learning and are among the most classical generative models for sequential time-series data. SSMs, comprising latent Markovian states, can be subjected to variational inference (VI), but standard VI methods like the importance-weighted autoencoder (IWAE) lack functionality for streaming data. To enable online VI in SSMs when the observations are received in real time, we propose maximising an IWAE-type variational lower bound on the asymptotic contrast function, rather than the standard IWAE ELBO, using stochastic approximation. Unlike the recursive maximum likelihood method, which directly maximises the asymptotic contrast, our approach, called online sequential IWAE (OSIWAE), allows for online learning of both model parameters and a Markovian recognition model for inferring latent states. By approximating filter state posteriors and their derivatives using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, we create a particle-based framework for online VI in SSMs. This approach is more theoretically well-founded than recently proposed online variational SMC methods. We provide rigorous theoretical results on the learning objective and a numerical study demonstrating the method's efficiency in learning model parameters and particle proposal kernels.

A critical aspect of safe and efficient motion planning for autonomous vehicles (AVs) is to handle the complex and uncertain behavior of surrounding human-driven vehicles (HDVs). Despite intensive research on driver behavior prediction, existing approaches typically overlook the interactions between AVs and HDVs assuming that HDV trajectories are not affected by AV actions. To address this gap, we present a transformer-transfer learning-based interaction-aware trajectory predictor for safe motion planning of autonomous driving, focusing on a vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) interaction scenario consisting of an AV and an HDV. Specifically, we construct a transformer-based interaction-aware trajectory predictor using widely available datasets of HDV trajectory data and further transfer the learned predictor using a small set of AV-HDV interaction data. Then, to better incorporate the proposed trajectory predictor into the motion planning module of AVs, we introduce an uncertainty quantification method to characterize the errors of the predictor, which are integrated into the path-planning process. Our experimental results demonstrate the value of explicitly considering interactions and handling uncertainties.

Recent work has demonstrated that a promising strategy for teaching robots a wide range of complex skills is by training them on a curriculum of progressively more challenging environments. However, developing an effective curriculum of environment distributions currently requires significant expertise, which must be repeated for every new domain. Our key insight is that environments are often naturally represented as code. Thus, we probe whether effective environment curriculum design can be achieved and automated via code generation by large language models (LLM). In this paper, we introduce Eurekaverse, an unsupervised environment design algorithm that uses LLMs to sample progressively more challenging, diverse, and learnable environments for skill training. We validate Eurekaverse's effectiveness in the domain of quadrupedal parkour learning, in which a quadruped robot must traverse through a variety of obstacle courses. The automatic curriculum designed by Eurekaverse enables gradual learning of complex parkour skills in simulation and can successfully transfer to the real-world, outperforming manual training courses designed by humans.

Effective communication is an essential component in collaborative multi-agent systems. Situations where explicit messaging is not feasible have been common in human society throughout history, which motivate the study of implicit communication. Previous works on learning implicit communication mostly rely on theory of mind (ToM), where agents infer the mental states and intentions of others by interpreting their actions. However, ToM-based methods become less effective in making accurate inferences in complex tasks. In this work, we propose the Implicit Channel Protocol (ICP) framework, which allows agents to construct implicit communication channels similar to the explicit ones. ICP leverages a subset of actions, denoted as the scouting actions, and a mapping between information and these scouting actions that encodes and decodes the messages. We propose training algorithms for agents to message and act, including learning with a randomly initialized information map and with a delayed information map. The efficacy of ICP has been tested on the tasks of Guessing Number, Revealing Goals, and Hanabi, where ICP significantly outperforms baseline methods through more efficient information transmission.

Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the conformity or nonconformity between predictions and true labels. However, conducting conformal inference for hidden states under hidden Markov models (HMMs) presents a significant challenge, as the hidden state data is unavailable, resulting in the absence of a true label set to serve as a conformal calibration set. This paper proposes an adaptive conformal inference framework that leverages a particle filtering approach to address this issue. Rather than directly focusing on the unobservable hidden state, we innovatively use weighted particles as an approximation of the actual posterior distribution of the hidden state. Our goal is to produce prediction sets that encompass these particles to achieve a specific aggregate weight sum, referred to as the aggregated coverage level. The proposed framework can adapt online to the time-varying distribution of data and achieve the defined marginal aggregated coverage level in both one-step and multi-step inference over the long term. We verify the effectiveness of this approach through a real-time target localization simulation study.

Developing foundational world models is a key research direction for embodied intelligence, with the ability to adapt to non-stationary environments being a crucial criterion. In this work, we introduce a new formalism, Hidden Parameter-POMDP, designed for control with adaptive world models. We demonstrate that this approach enables learning robust behaviors across a variety of non-stationary RL benchmarks. Additionally, this formalism effectively learns task abstractions in an unsupervised manner, resulting in structured, task-aware latent spaces.

This paper develops theory and algorithms for interacting large language model agents (LLMAs) using methods from statistical signal processing and microeconomics. While both fields are mature, their application to decision-making by interacting LLMAs remains unexplored. Motivated by Bayesian sentiment analysis on online platforms, we construct interpretable models and stochastic control algorithms that enable LLMAs to interact and perform Bayesian inference. Because interacting LLMAs learn from prior decisions and external inputs, they exhibit bias and herding behavior. Thus, developing interpretable models and stochastic control algorithms is essential to understand and mitigate these behaviors. This paper has three main results. First, we show using Bayesian revealed preferences from microeconomics that an individual LLMA satisfies the sufficient conditions for rationally inattentive (bounded rationality) utility maximization and, given an observation, the LLMA chooses an action that maximizes a regularized utility. Second, we utilize Bayesian social learning to construct interpretable models for LLMAs that interact sequentially with each other and the environment while performing Bayesian inference. Our models capture the herding behavior exhibited by interacting LLMAs. Third, we propose a stochastic control framework to delay herding and improve state estimation accuracy under two settings: (a) centrally controlled LLMAs and (b) autonomous LLMAs with incentives. Throughout the paper, we demonstrate the efficacy of our methods on real datasets for hate speech classification and product quality assessment, using open-source models like Mistral and closed-source models like ChatGPT. The main takeaway of this paper, based on substantial empirical analysis and mathematical formalism, is that LLMAs act as rationally bounded Bayesian agents that exhibit social learning when interacting.

Next point-of-interest (POI) recommendation aims to predict a user's next destination based on sequential check-in history and a set of POI candidates. Graph neural networks (GNNs) have demonstrated a remarkable capability in this endeavor by exploiting the extensive global collaborative signals present among POIs. However, most of the existing graph-based approaches construct graph structures based on pre-defined heuristics, failing to consider inherent hierarchical structures of POI features such as geographical locations and visiting peaks, or suffering from noisy and incomplete structures in graphs. To address the aforementioned issues, this paper presents a novel Bi-level Graph Structure Learning (BiGSL) for next POI recommendation. BiGSL first learns a hierarchical graph structure to capture the fine-to-coarse connectivity between POIs and prototypes, and then uses a pairwise learning module to dynamically infer relationships between POI pairs and prototype pairs. Based on the learned bi-level graphs, our model then employs a multi-relational graph network that considers both POI- and prototype-level neighbors, resulting in improved POI representations. Our bi-level structure learning scheme is more robust to data noise and incompleteness, and improves the exploration ability for recommendation by alleviating sparsity issues. Experimental results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model over existing state-of-the-art methods, with a significant improvement in recommendation accuracy and exploration performance.