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 Learning Graphical Models


Interaction-Aware Trajectory Prediction for Safe Motion Planning in Autonomous Driving: A Transformer-Transfer Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A critical aspect of safe and efficient motion planning for autonomous vehicles (AVs) is to handle the complex and uncertain behavior of surrounding human-driven vehicles (HDVs). Despite intensive research on driver behavior prediction, existing approaches typically overlook the interactions between AVs and HDVs assuming that HDV trajectories are not affected by AV actions. To address this gap, we present a transformer-transfer learning-based interaction-aware trajectory predictor for safe motion planning of autonomous driving, focusing on a vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) interaction scenario consisting of an AV and an HDV. Specifically, we construct a transformer-based interaction-aware trajectory predictor using widely available datasets of HDV trajectory data and further transfer the learned predictor using a small set of AV-HDV interaction data. Then, to better incorporate the proposed trajectory predictor into the motion planning module of AVs, we introduce an uncertainty quantification method to characterize the errors of the predictor, which are integrated into the path-planning process. Our experimental results demonstrate the value of explicitly considering interactions and handling uncertainties.


Eurekaverse: Environment Curriculum Generation via Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent work has demonstrated that a promising strategy for teaching robots a wide range of complex skills is by training them on a curriculum of progressively more challenging environments. However, developing an effective curriculum of environment distributions currently requires significant expertise, which must be repeated for every new domain. Our key insight is that environments are often naturally represented as code. Thus, we probe whether effective environment curriculum design can be achieved and automated via code generation by large language models (LLM). In this paper, we introduce Eurekaverse, an unsupervised environment design algorithm that uses LLMs to sample progressively more challenging, diverse, and learnable environments for skill training. We validate Eurekaverse's effectiveness in the domain of quadrupedal parkour learning, in which a quadruped robot must traverse through a variety of obstacle courses. The automatic curriculum designed by Eurekaverse enables gradual learning of complex parkour skills in simulation and can successfully transfer to the real-world, outperforming manual training courses designed by humans.


Learning to Construct Implicit Communication Channel

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective communication is an essential component in collaborative multi-agent systems. Situations where explicit messaging is not feasible have been common in human society throughout history, which motivate the study of implicit communication. Previous works on learning implicit communication mostly rely on theory of mind (ToM), where agents infer the mental states and intentions of others by interpreting their actions. However, ToM-based methods become less effective in making accurate inferences in complex tasks. In this work, we propose the Implicit Channel Protocol (ICP) framework, which allows agents to construct implicit communication channels similar to the explicit ones. ICP leverages a subset of actions, denoted as the scouting actions, and a mapping between information and these scouting actions that encodes and decodes the messages. We propose training algorithms for agents to message and act, including learning with a randomly initialized information map and with a delayed information map. The efficacy of ICP has been tested on the tasks of Guessing Number, Revealing Goals, and Hanabi, where ICP significantly outperforms baseline methods through more efficient information transmission.


Adaptive Conformal Inference by Particle Filtering under Hidden Markov Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the conformity or nonconformity between predictions and true labels. However, conducting conformal inference for hidden states under hidden Markov models (HMMs) presents a significant challenge, as the hidden state data is unavailable, resulting in the absence of a true label set to serve as a conformal calibration set. This paper proposes an adaptive conformal inference framework that leverages a particle filtering approach to address this issue. Rather than directly focusing on the unobservable hidden state, we innovatively use weighted particles as an approximation of the actual posterior distribution of the hidden state. Our goal is to produce prediction sets that encompass these particles to achieve a specific aggregate weight sum, referred to as the aggregated coverage level. The proposed framework can adapt online to the time-varying distribution of data and achieve the defined marginal aggregated coverage level in both one-step and multi-step inference over the long term. We verify the effectiveness of this approach through a real-time target localization simulation study.


Adaptive World Models: Learning Behaviors by Latent Imagination Under Non-Stationarity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Developing foundational world models is a key research direction for embodied intelligence, with the ability to adapt to non-stationary environments being a crucial criterion. In this work, we introduce a new formalism, Hidden Parameter-POMDP, designed for control with adaptive world models. We demonstrate that this approach enables learning robust behaviors across a variety of non-stationary RL benchmarks. Additionally, this formalism effectively learns task abstractions in an unsupervised manner, resulting in structured, task-aware latent spaces.


Interacting Large Language Model Agents. Interpretable Models and Social Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper develops theory and algorithms for interacting large language model agents (LLMAs) using methods from statistical signal processing and microeconomics. While both fields are mature, their application to decision-making by interacting LLMAs remains unexplored. Motivated by Bayesian sentiment analysis on online platforms, we construct interpretable models and stochastic control algorithms that enable LLMAs to interact and perform Bayesian inference. Because interacting LLMAs learn from prior decisions and external inputs, they exhibit bias and herding behavior. Thus, developing interpretable models and stochastic control algorithms is essential to understand and mitigate these behaviors. This paper has three main results. First, we show using Bayesian revealed preferences from microeconomics that an individual LLMA satisfies the sufficient conditions for rationally inattentive (bounded rationality) utility maximization and, given an observation, the LLMA chooses an action that maximizes a regularized utility. Second, we utilize Bayesian social learning to construct interpretable models for LLMAs that interact sequentially with each other and the environment while performing Bayesian inference. Our models capture the herding behavior exhibited by interacting LLMAs. Third, we propose a stochastic control framework to delay herding and improve state estimation accuracy under two settings: (a) centrally controlled LLMAs and (b) autonomous LLMAs with incentives. Throughout the paper, we demonstrate the efficacy of our methods on real datasets for hate speech classification and product quality assessment, using open-source models like Mistral and closed-source models like ChatGPT. The main takeaway of this paper, based on substantial empirical analysis and mathematical formalism, is that LLMAs act as rationally bounded Bayesian agents that exhibit social learning when interacting.


Bi-Level Graph Structure Learning for Next POI Recommendation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Next point-of-interest (POI) recommendation aims to predict a user's next destination based on sequential check-in history and a set of POI candidates. Graph neural networks (GNNs) have demonstrated a remarkable capability in this endeavor by exploiting the extensive global collaborative signals present among POIs. However, most of the existing graph-based approaches construct graph structures based on pre-defined heuristics, failing to consider inherent hierarchical structures of POI features such as geographical locations and visiting peaks, or suffering from noisy and incomplete structures in graphs. To address the aforementioned issues, this paper presents a novel Bi-level Graph Structure Learning (BiGSL) for next POI recommendation. BiGSL first learns a hierarchical graph structure to capture the fine-to-coarse connectivity between POIs and prototypes, and then uses a pairwise learning module to dynamically infer relationships between POI pairs and prototype pairs. Based on the learned bi-level graphs, our model then employs a multi-relational graph network that considers both POI- and prototype-level neighbors, resulting in improved POI representations. Our bi-level structure learning scheme is more robust to data noise and incompleteness, and improves the exploration ability for recommendation by alleviating sparsity issues. Experimental results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model over existing state-of-the-art methods, with a significant improvement in recommendation accuracy and exploration performance.


XNB: Explainable Class-Specific NaIve-Bayes Classifier

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In today's data-intensive landscape, where high-dimensional datasets are increasingly common, reducing the number of input features is essential to prevent overfitting and improve model accuracy. Despite numerous efforts to tackle dimensionality reduction, most approaches apply a universal set of features across all classes, potentially missing the unique characteristics of individual classes. This paper presents the Explainable Class-Specific Naive Bayes (XNB) classifier, which introduces two critical innovations: 1) the use of Kernel Density Estimation to calculate posterior probabilities, allowing for a more accurate and flexible estimation process, and 2) the selection of class-specific feature subsets, ensuring that only the most relevant variables for each class are utilized. Extensive empirical analysis on high-dimensional genomic datasets shows that XNB matches the classification performance of traditional Naive Bayes while drastically improving model interpretability. By isolating the most relevant features for each class, XNB not only reduces the feature set to a minimal, distinct subset for each class but also provides deeper insights into how the model makes predictions. This approach offers significant advantages in fields where both precision and explainability are critical.


Bayesian scaling laws for in-context learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In-context learning (ICL) is a powerful technique for getting language models to perform complex tasks with no training updates. Prior work has established strong correlations between the number of in-context examples provided and the accuracy of the model's predictions. In this paper, we seek to explain this correlation by showing that ICL approximates a Bayesian learner. This perspective gives rise to a family of novel Bayesian scaling laws for ICL. In experiments with \mbox{GPT-2} models of different sizes, our scaling laws exceed or match existing scaling laws in accuracy while also offering interpretable terms for task priors, learning efficiency, and per-example probabilities. To illustrate the analytic power that such interpretable scaling laws provide, we report on controlled synthetic dataset experiments designed to inform real-world studies of safety alignment. In our experimental protocol, we use SFT to suppress an unwanted existing model capability and then use ICL to try to bring that capability back (many-shot jailbreaking). We then experiment on real-world instruction-tuned LLMs using capabilities benchmarks as well as a new many-shot jailbreaking dataset. In all cases, Bayesian scaling laws accurately predict the conditions under which ICL will cause the suppressed behavior to reemerge, which sheds light on the ineffectiveness of post-training at increasing LLM safety.


HeightMapNet: Explicit Height Modeling for End-to-End HD Map Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in high-definition (HD) map construction from surround-view images have highlighted their cost-effectiveness in deployment. However, prevailing techniques often fall short in accurately extracting and utilizing road features, as well as in the implementation of view transformation. In response, we introduce HeightMapNet, a novel framework that establishes a dynamic relationship between image features and road surface height distributions. By integrating height priors, our approach refines the accuracy of Bird's-Eye-View (BEV) features beyond conventional methods. HeightMapNet also introduces a foreground-background separation network that sharply distinguishes between critical road elements and extraneous background components, enabling precise focus on detailed road micro-features. Additionally, our method leverages multi-scale features within the BEV space, optimally utilizing spatial geometric information to boost model performance. HeightMapNet has shown exceptional results on the challenging nuScenes and Argoverse 2 datasets, outperforming several widely recognized approaches. The code will be available at \url{https://github.com/adasfag/HeightMapNet/}.