Traffic signal control is crucial for managing congestion in urban networks. Existing myopic pressure-based control methods focus only on immediate upstream links, leading to suboptimal green time allocation and increased network delays. Effective signal control, however, inherently requires a broader spatial scope, as traffic conditions further upstream can significantly impact traffic at the current location. This paper introduces a novel concept based on the Markov chain theory, namely multi-hop upstream pressure, that generalizes the conventional pressure to account for traffic conditions beyond the immediate upstream links. This farsighted and compact metric informs the deep reinforcement learning agent to preemptively clear the present queues, guiding the agent to optimize signal timings with a broader spatial awareness. Simulations on synthetic and realistic (Toronto) scenarios demonstrate controllers utilizing multi-hop upstream pressure significantly reduce overall network delay by prioritizing traffic movements based on a broader understanding of upstream congestion.

Taking into account future risk is essential for an autonomously operating robot to find online not only the best but also a safe action to execute. In this paper, we build upon the recently introduced formulation of probabilistic belief-dependent constraints. We present an anytime approach employing the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) method in continuous domains. Unlike previous approaches, our method assures safety anytime with respect to the currently expanded search tree without relying on the convergence of the search. We prove convergence in probability with an exponential rate of a version of our algorithms and study proposed techniques via extensive simulations. Even with a tiny number of tree queries, the best action found by our approach is much safer than the baseline. Moreover, our approach constantly finds better than the baseline action in terms of objective. This is because we revise the values and statistics maintained in the search tree and remove from them the contribution of the pruned actions.

Language agents have demonstrated promising capabilities in automating web-based tasks, though their current reactive approaches still underperform largely compared to humans. While incorporating advanced planning algorithms, particularly tree search methods, could enhance these agents' performance, implementing tree search directly on live websites poses significant safety risks and practical constraints due to irreversible actions such as confirming a purchase. In this paper, we introduce a novel paradigm that augments language agents with model-based planning, pioneering the innovative use of large language models (LLMs) as world models in complex web environments. Our method, WebDreamer, builds on the key insight that LLMs inherently encode comprehensive knowledge about website structures and functionalities. Specifically, WebDreamer uses LLMs to simulate outcomes for each candidate action (e.g., "what would happen if I click this button?") using natural language descriptions, and then evaluates these imagined outcomes to determine the optimal action at each step. Empirical results on two representative web agent benchmarks with online interaction -- VisualWebArena and Mind2Web-live -- demonstrate that WebDreamer achieves substantial improvements over reactive baselines. By establishing the viability of LLMs as world models in web environments, this work lays the groundwork for a paradigm shift in automated web interaction. More broadly, our findings open exciting new avenues for future research into 1) optimizing LLMs specifically for world modeling in complex, dynamic environments, and 2) model-based speculative planning for language agents.

When training deep neural networks, a model's generalization error is often observed to follow a power scaling law dependent both on the model size and the data size. Perhaps the best known example of such scaling laws are for transformer-based large language models, where networks with billions of parameters are trained on trillions of tokens of text. Yet, despite sustained widespread interest, a rigorous understanding of why transformer scaling laws exist is still missing. To answer this question, we establish novel statistical estimation and mathematical approximation theories for transformers when the input data are concentrated on a low-dimensional manifold. Our theory predicts a power law between the generalization error and both the training data size and the network size for transformers, where the power depends on the intrinsic dimension $d$ of the training data. Notably, the constructed model architecture is shallow, requiring only logarithmic depth in $d$. By leveraging low-dimensional data structures under a manifold hypothesis, we are able to explain transformer scaling laws in a way which respects the data geometry. Moreover, we test our theory with empirical observation by training LLMs on natural language datasets. We find the observed empirical data scaling laws closely agree with our theoretical predictions. Taken together, these results rigorously show the intrinsic dimension of data to be a crucial quantity affecting transformer scaling laws in both theory and practice.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a ubiquitous tool for geostatistical modeling with high levels of flexibility and interpretability, and the ability to make predictions at unseen spatial locations through a process called Kriging. Estimation of Kriging weights relies on the inversion of the process' covariance matrix, creating a computational bottleneck for large spatial datasets. In this paper, we propose an Amortized Bayesian Local Interpolation NetworK (A-BLINK) for fast covariance parameter estimation, which uses two pre-trained deep neural networks to learn a mapping from spatial location coordinates and covariance function parameters to Kriging weights and the spatial variance, respectively. The fast prediction time of these networks allows us to bypass the matrix inversion step, creating large computational speedups over competing methods in both frequentist and Bayesian settings, and also provides full posterior inference and predictions using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods. We show significant increases in computational efficiency over comparable scalable GP methodology in an extensive simulation study with lower parameter estimation error. The efficacy of our approach is also demonstrated using a temperature dataset of US climate normals for 1991--2020 based on over 7,000 weather stations.

In reinforcement learning with image-based inputs, it is crucial to establish a robust and generalizable state representation. Recent advancements in metric learning, such as deep bisimulation metric approaches, have shown promising results in learning structured low-dimensional representation space from pixel observations, where the distance between states is measured based on task-relevant features. However, these approaches face challenges in demanding generalization tasks and scenarios with non-informative rewards. This is because they fail to capture sufficient long-term information in the learned representations. To address these challenges, we propose a novel State Chrono Representation (SCR) approach. SCR augments state metric-based representations by incorporating extensive temporal information into the update step of bisimulation metric learning. It learns state distances within a temporal framework that considers both future dynamics and cumulative rewards over current and long-term future states. Our learning strategy effectively incorporates future behavioral information into the representation space without introducing a significant number of additional parameters for modeling dynamics. Extensive experiments conducted in DeepMind Control and Meta-World environments demonstrate that SCR achieves better performance comparing to other recent metric-based methods in demanding generalization tasks.

Portfolio construction is the science of balancing reward and risk; it is at the core of modern finance. In this paper, we tackle the question of optimal decision-making within a Bayesian paradigm, starting from a decision-theoretic formulation. Despite the inherent intractability of the optimal decision in any interesting scenarios, we manage to rewrite it as a saddle-point problem. Leveraging the literature on variational Bayes (VB), we propose a relaxation of the original problem. This novel methodology results in an efficient algorithm that not only performs well but is also provably convergent. Furthermore, we provide theoretical results on the statistical consistency of the resulting decision with the optimal Bayesian decision. Using real data, our proposal significantly enhances the speed and scalability of portfolio selection problems. We benchmark our results against state-of-the-art algorithms, as well as a Monte Carlo algorithm targeting the optimal decision.

This paper explores the application of Positive-Unlabeled (PU) learning for enhanced Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) detection in cloud environments. Utilizing the $\texttt{BCCC-cPacket-Cloud-DDoS-2024}$ dataset, we implement PU learning with four machine learning algorithms: XGBoost, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Na\"{i}ve Bayes. Our results demonstrate the superior performance of ensemble methods, with XGBoost and Random Forest achieving $F_{1}$ scores exceeding 98%. We quantify the efficacy of each approach using metrics including $F_{1}$ score, ROC AUC, Recall, and Precision. This study bridges the gap between PU learning and cloud-based anomaly detection, providing a foundation for addressing Context-Aware DDoS Detection in multi-cloud environments. Our findings highlight the potential of PU learning in scenarios with limited labeled data, offering valuable insights for developing more robust and adaptive cloud security mechanisms.

The driver warning system that alerts the human driver about potential risks during driving is a key feature of an advanced driver assistance system. Existing driver warning technologies, mainly the forward collision warning and unsafe lane change warning, can reduce the risk of collision caused by human errors. However, the current design methods have several major limitations. Firstly, the warnings are mainly generated in a one-shot manner without modeling the ego driver's reactions and surrounding objects, which reduces the flexibility and generality of the system over different scenarios. Additionally, the triggering conditions of warning are mostly rule-based threshold-checking given the current state, which lacks the prediction of the potential risk in a sufficiently long future horizon. In this work, we study the problem of optimally generating driver warnings by considering the interactions among the generated warning, the driver behavior, and the states of ego and surrounding vehicles on a long horizon. The warning generation problem is formulated as a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP). An optimal warning generation framework is proposed as a solution to the proposed POMDP. The simulation experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed solution to the existing warning generation methods.

We show that variational learning can significantly improve the accuracy and calibration of Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) without a substantial increase in the cost. We replace AdamW by the Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) algorithm to finetune large language models. For Llama-2 with 7 billion parameters, IVON improves the accuracy over AdamW by 2.8% and expected calibration error by 4.6%. The accuracy is also better than the other Bayesian alternatives, yet the cost is lower and the implementation is easier. Our work provides additional evidence for the effectiveness of IVON for large language models.