Model-based reinforcement learning refers to a set of approaches capable of sample-efficient decision making, which create an explicit model of the environment. This model can subsequently be used for learning optimal policies. In this paper, we propose a temporal Gaussian Mixture Model composed of a perception model and a transition model. The perception model extracts discrete (latent) states from continuous observations using a variational Gaussian mixture likelihood. Importantly, our model constantly monitors the collected data searching for new Gaussian components, i.e., the perception model performs a form of structure learning (Smith et al., 2020; Friston et al., 2018; Neacsu et al., 2022) as it learns the number of Gaussian components in the mixture. Additionally, the transition model learns the temporal transition between consecutive time steps by taking advantage of the Dirichlet-categorical conjugacy. Both the perception and transition models are able to forget part of the data points, while integrating the information they provide within the prior, which ensure fast variational inference. Finally, decision making is performed with a variant of Q-learning which is able to learn Q-values from beliefs over states. Empirically, we have demonstrated the model's ability to learn the structure of several mazes: the model discovered the number of states and the transition probabilities between these states. Moreover, using its learned Q-values, the agent was able to successfully navigate from the starting position to the maze's exit.

We propose a unifying framework for methods that perform Bayesian online learning in non-stationary environments. We call the framework BONE, which stands for (B)ayesian (O)nline learning in (N)on-stationary (E)nvironments. BONE provides a common structure to tackle a variety of problems, including online continual learning, prequential forecasting, and contextual bandits. The framework requires specifying three modelling choices: (i) a model for measurements (e.g., a neural network), (ii) an auxiliary process to model non-stationarity (e.g., the time since the last changepoint), and (iii) a conditional prior over model parameters (e.g., a multivariate Gaussian). The framework also requires two algorithmic choices, which we use to carry out approximate inference under this framework: (i) an algorithm to estimate beliefs (posterior distribution) about the model parameters given the auxiliary variable, and (ii) an algorithm to estimate beliefs about the auxiliary variable. We show how this modularity allows us to write many different existing methods as instances of BONE; we also use this framework to propose a new method. We then experimentally compare existing methods with our proposed new method on several datasets; we provide insights into the situations that make one method more suitable than another for a given task.

We consider the fundamental problem of learning the parameters of an undirected graphical model or Markov Random Field (MRF) in the setting where the edge weights are chosen at random. For Ising models, we show that a multiplicative-weight update algorithm due to Klivans and Meka learns the parameters in polynomial time for any inverse temperature $\beta \leq \sqrt{\log n}$. This immediately yields an algorithm for learning the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick (SK) model beyond the high-temperature regime of $\beta < 1$. Prior work breaks down at $\beta = 1$ and requires heavy machinery from statistical physics or functional inequalities. In contrast, our analysis is relatively simple and uses only subgaussian concentration. Our results extend to MRFs of higher order (such as pure $p$-spin models), where even results in the high-temperature regime were not known.

This study presents a comparative analysis of two objective functions, Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Softmax Cross-Entropy (SCE) for neural network classification tasks. While SCE combined with softmax activation is the conventional choice for transforming network outputs into class probabilities, we explore an alternative approach using MSE with sigmoid activation. We introduce the Output Reset algorithm, which reduces inconsistent errors and enhances classifier robustness. Through extensive experiments on benchmark datasets (MNIST, CIFAR-10, and Fashion-MNIST), we demonstrate that MSE with sigmoid activation achieves comparable accuracy and convergence rates to SCE, while exhibiting superior performance in scenarios with noisy data. Our findings indicate that MSE, despite its traditional association with regression tasks, serves as a viable alternative for classification problems, challenging conventional wisdom about neural network training strategies.

Imagine searching a collection of coins for quarters ($0.25$), dimes ($0.10$), nickels ($0.05$), and pennies ($0.01$)-a hybrid foraging task where observers look for multiple instances of multiple target types. In such tasks, how do target values and their prevalence influence foraging and eye movement behaviors (e.g., should you prioritize rare quarters or common nickels)? To explore this, we conducted human psychophysics experiments, revealing that humans are proficient reward foragers. Their eye fixations are drawn to regions with higher average rewards, fixation durations are longer on more valuable targets, and their cumulative rewards exceed chance, approaching the upper bound of optimal foragers. To probe these decision-making processes of humans, we developed a transformer-based Visual Forager (VF) model trained via reinforcement learning. Our VF model takes a series of targets, their corresponding values, and the search image as inputs, processes the images using foveated vision, and produces a sequence of eye movements along with decisions on whether to collect each fixated item. Our model outperforms all baselines, achieves cumulative rewards comparable to those of humans, and approximates human foraging behavior in eye movements and foraging biases within time-limited environments. Furthermore, stress tests on out-of-distribution tasks with novel targets, unseen values, and varying set sizes demonstrate the VF model's effective generalization. Our work offers valuable insights into the relationship between eye movements and decision-making, with our model serving as a powerful tool for further exploration of this connection. All data, code, and models will be made publicly available.

Reinforcement learning algorithms are usually stated without theoretical guarantees regarding their performance. Recently, Jin, Yang, Wang, and Jordan (COLT 2020) showed a polynomial-time reinforcement learning algorithm (namely, LSVI-UCB) for the setting of linear Markov decision processes, and provided theoretical guarantees regarding its running time and regret. In real-world scenarios, however, the space usage of this algorithm can be prohibitive due to a utilized linear regression step. We propose and analyze two modifications of LSVI-UCB, which alternate periods of learning and not-learning, to reduce space and time usage while maintaining sublinear regret. We show experimentally, on synthetic data and real-world benchmarks, that our algorithms achieve low space usage and running time, while not significantly sacrificing regret.

Recent progress in interactive point prompt based Image Segmentation allows to significantly reduce the manual effort to obtain high quality semantic labels. State-of-the-art unsupervised methods use self-supervised pre-trained models to obtain pseudo-labels which are used in training a prompt-based segmentation model. In this paper, we propose a novel unsupervised and training-free approach based solely on the self-attention of Stable Diffusion. We interpret the self-attention tensor as a Markov transition operator, which enables us to iteratively construct a Markov chain. Pixel-wise counting of the required number of iterations along the Markov-chain to reach a relative probability threshold yields a Markov-iteration-map, which we simply call a Markov-map. Compared to the raw attention maps, we show that our proposed Markov-map has less noise, sharper semantic boundaries and more uniform values within semantically similar regions. We integrate the Markov-map in a simple yet effective truncated nearest neighbor framework to obtain interactive point prompt based segmentation. Despite being training-free, we experimentally show that our approach yields excellent results in terms of Number of Clicks (NoC), even outperforming state-of-the-art training based unsupervised methods in most of the datasets.

Quantitative automata are useful representations for numerous applications, including modeling probability distributions over sequences to Markov chains and reward machines. Actively learning such automata typically occurs using explicitly gathered input-output examples under adaptations of the L-star algorithm. However, obtaining explicit input-output pairs can be expensive, and there exist scenarios, including preference-based learning or learning from rankings, where providing constraints is a less exerting and a more natural way to concisely describe desired properties. Consequently, we propose the problem of learning deterministic quantitative automata from sets of constraints over the valuations of input sequences. We present QUINTIC, an active learning algorithm, wherein the learner infers a valid automaton through deductive reasoning, by applying a theory to a set of currently available constraints and an assumed preference model and quantitative automaton class. QUINTIC performs a complete search over the space of automata, and is guaranteed to be minimal and correctly terminate. Our evaluations utilize theory of rationals in order to learn summation, discounted summation, product, and classification quantitative automata, and indicate QUINTIC is effective at learning these types of automata.

Emotion detection is pivotal in human communication, as it significantly influences behavior, relationships, and decision-making processes. This study concentrates on text-based emotion detection by leveraging the GoEmotions dataset, which annotates Reddit comments with 27 distinct emotions. These emotions are subsequently mapped to Ekman's 6 basic categories: joy, anger, fear, sadness, disgust, and surprise. We employed a range of models for this task, including 6 machine learning models, 3 ensemble models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to determine the optimal model for emotion detection. Results indicate that the Stacking classifier outperforms other models in accuracy and performance. Finally, the Stacking classifier is deployed via a Streamlit web application, underscoring its potential for real-world applications in text-based emotion analysis. Keywords: Text Based Emotion Detection, Machine Learning, Ensemble Learning, Deep Learning, GoEmotions, EmoBERTa, Streamlit Introduction Emotions are complex, subjective experiences, often linked to psychological states such as mood, temperament, and personality. These experiences influence human behavior, impacting decision-making, reactions to stimuli, and interpersonal interactions. In the contemporary world, where mental health disorders such as stress, anxiety, and depression are increasingly prevalent, understanding emotions is more important than ever (Maruf et al., 2024).

While most ML models expect independent and identically distributed data, this assumption is often violated in real-world scenarios due to distribution shifts, resulting in the degradation of machine learning model performance. Until now, no tabular method has consistently outperformed classical supervised learning, which ignores these shifts. To address temporal distribution shifts, we present Drift-Resilient TabPFN, a fresh approach based on In-Context Learning with a Prior-Data Fitted Network that learns the learning algorithm itself: it accepts the entire training dataset as input and makes predictions on the test set in a single forward pass. Specifically, it learns to approximate Bayesian inference on synthetic datasets drawn from a prior that specifies the model's inductive bias. This prior is based on structural causal models (SCM), which gradually shift over time. To model shifts of these causal models, we use a secondary SCM, that specifies changes in the primary model parameters. The resulting Drift-Resilient TabPFN can be applied to unseen data, runs in seconds on small to moderately sized datasets and needs no hyperparameter tuning. Comprehensive evaluations across 18 synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate large performance improvements over a wide range of baselines, such as XGB, CatBoost, TabPFN, and applicable methods featured in the Wild-Time benchmark. Compared to the strongest baselines, it improves accuracy from 0.688 to 0.744 and ROC AUC from 0.786 to 0.832 while maintaining stronger calibration. This approach could serve as significant groundwork for further research on out-of-distribution prediction.