We introduce a new multimodal optimization approach called Natural Variational Annealing (NVA) that combines the strengths of three foundational concepts to simultaneously search for multiple global and local modes of black-box nonconvex objectives. First, it implements a simultaneous search by using variational posteriors, such as, mixtures of Gaussians. Second, it applies annealing to gradually trade off exploration for exploitation. Finally, it learns the variational search distribution using natural-gradient learning where updates resemble well-known and easy-to-implement algorithms. The three concepts come together in NVA giving rise to new algorithms and also allowing us to incorporate "fitness shaping", a core concept from evolutionary algorithms. We assess the quality of search on simulations and compare them to methods using gradient descent and evolution strategies. We also provide an application to a real-world inverse problem in planetary science.

Multi-modal generative AI systems, such as those combining vision and language, rely on contrastive pre-training to learn representations across different modalities. While their practical benefits are widely acknowledged, a rigorous theoretical understanding of the contrastive pre-training framework remains limited. This paper develops a theoretical framework to explain the success of contrastive pre-training in downstream tasks, such as zero-shot classification, conditional diffusion models, and vision-language models. We introduce the concept of approximate sufficient statistics, a generalization of the classical sufficient statistics, and show that near-minimizers of the contrastive pre-training loss are approximately sufficient, making them adaptable to diverse downstream tasks. We further propose the Joint Generative Hierarchical Model for the joint distribution of images and text, showing that transformers can efficiently approximate relevant functions within this model via belief propagation. Building on this framework, we derive sample complexity guarantees for multi-modal learning based on contrastive pre-trained representations. Numerical simulations validate these theoretical findings, demonstrating the strong generalization performance of contrastively pre-trained transformers in various multi-modal tasks.

Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning have led to neural networks being used to generate lightning-speed answers to complex questions, to paint like Monet, or to write like Proust. Leveraging their computational speed and flexibility, neural networks are also being used to facilitate fast, likelihood-free statistical inference. However, it is not straightforward to use neural networks with data that for various reasons are incomplete, which precludes their use in many applications. A recently proposed approach to remedy this issue inputs an appropriately padded data vector and a vector that encodes the missingness pattern to a neural network. While computationally efficient, this "masking" approach can result in statistically inefficient inferences. Here, we propose an alternative approach that is based on the Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Our EM approach is likelihood-free, substantially faster than the conventional EM algorithm as it does not require numerical optimization at each iteration, and more statistically efficient than the masking approach. This research represents a prototype problem that indicates how improvements could be made in AI by introducing Bayesian statistical thinking. We compare the two approaches to missingness using simulated incomplete data from two models: a spatial Gaussian process model, and a spatial Potts model. The utility of the methodology is shown on Arctic sea-ice data and cryptocurrency data.

Uncertainty estimation is an indispensable capability for AI-enabled, safety-critical applications, e.g. autonomous vehicles or medical diagnosis. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) use Bayesian statistics to provide both classification predictions and uncertainty estimation, but they suffer from high computational overhead associated with random number generation and repeated sample iterations. Furthermore, BNNs are not immediately amenable to acceleration through compute-in-memory architectures due to the frequent memory writes necessary after each RNG operation. To address these challenges, we present an ASIC that integrates 360 fJ/Sample Gaussian RNG directly into the SRAM memory words. This integration reduces RNG overhead and enables fully-parallel compute-in-memory operations for BNNs. The prototype chip achieves 5.12 GSa/s RNG throughput and 102 GOp/s neural network throughput while occupying 0.45 mm2, bringing AI uncertainty estimation to edge computation.

Domain adaptation is a sub-field of machine learning that involves transferring knowledge from a source domain to perform the same task in the target domain. It is a typical challenge in machine learning that arises, e.g., when data is obtained from various sources or when using a data basis that changes over time. Recent advances in the field offer promising methods, but it is still challenging for researchers and practitioners to determine if domain adaptation is suitable for a given problem -- and, subsequently, to select the appropriate approach. This article employs design science research to develop a problem-oriented framework for domain adaptation, which is matured in three evaluation episodes. We describe a framework that distinguishes between five domain adaptation scenarios, provides recommendations for addressing each scenario, and offers guidelines for determining if a problem falls into one of these scenarios. During the multiple evaluation episodes, the framework is tested on artificial and real-world datasets and an experimental study involving 100 participants. The evaluation demonstrates that the framework has the explanatory power to capture any domain adaptation problem effectively. In summary, we provide clear guidance for researchers and practitioners who want to employ domain adaptation but lack in-depth knowledge of the possibilities.

Restricted Boltzmann Machines are simple yet powerful neural networks. They can be used for learning structure in data, and are used as a building block of more complex neural architectures. At the same time, their simplicity makes them easy to use, amenable to theoretical analysis, yielding interpretable models in applications. Here, we focus on reviewing the role that the activation functions, describing the input-output relationship of single neurons in RBM, play in the functionality of these models. We discuss recent theoretical results on the benefits and limitations of different activation functions. We also review applications to biological data analysis, namely neural data analysis, where RBM units are mostly taken to have sigmoid activation functions and binary units, to protein data analysis and immunology where non-binary units and non-sigmoid activation functions have recently been shown to yield important insights into the data. Finally, we discuss open problems addressing which can shed light on broader issues in neural network research.

This work considers the problem of sampling from a probability distribution known up to a normalization constant while satisfying a set of statistical constraints specified by the expected values of general nonlinear functions. This problem finds applications in, e.g., Bayesian inference, where it can constrain moments to evaluate counterfactual scenarios or enforce desiderata such as prediction fairness. Methods developed to handle support constraints, such as those based on mirror maps, barriers, and penalties, are not suited for this task. This work therefore relies on gradient descent-ascent dynamics in Wasserstein space to put forward a discrete-time primal-dual Langevin Monte Carlo algorithm (PD-LMC) that simultaneously constrains the target distribution and samples from it. We analyze the convergence of PD-LMC under standard assumptions on the target distribution and constraints, namely (strong) convexity and log-Sobolev inequalities. To do so, we bring classical optimization arguments for saddle-point algorithms to the geometry of Wasserstein space. We illustrate the relevance and effectiveness of PD-LMC in several applications.

-- Autonomous robot navigation in complex environments requires robust perception as well as high-level scene understanding due to perceptual challenges, such as occlusions, and uncertainty introduced by robot movement. For example, a robot climbing a cluttered staircase can misinterpret clutter as a step, misrepresenting the state and compromising safety. This requires robust state estimation methods capable of inferring the underlying structure of the environment even from incomplete sensor data. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for robust state estimation of staircases. T o address the challenge of perceiving occluded staircases extending beyond the robot's field-of-view, our approach combines an infinite-width staircase representation with a finite endpoint state to capture the overall staircase structure. This representation is integrated into a Bayesian inference framework to fuse noisy measurements enabling accurate estimation of staircase location even with partial observations and occlusions. Additionally, we present a segmentation algorithm that works in conjunction with the staircase estimation pipeline to accurately identify clutter-free regions on a staircase. Our method is extensively evaluated on real robot across diverse staircases, demonstrating significant improvements in estimation accuracy and segmentation performance compared to baseline approaches. Staircases, an ubiquitous feature of human-built environments throughout history, have enabled access to different levels within structures.

Behavioural analytics provides insights into individual and crowd behaviour, enabling analysis of what previously happened and predictions for how people may be likely to act in the future. In defence and security, this analysis allows organisations to achieve tactical and strategic advantage through influence campaigns, a key counterpart to physical activities. Before action can be taken, online and real-world behaviour must be analysed to determine the level of threat. Huge data volumes mean that automated processes are required to attain an accurate understanding of risk. We describe the mathematical basis of technologies to analyse quotes in multiple languages. These include a Bayesian network to understand behavioural factors, state estimation algorithms for time series analysis, and machine learning algorithms for classification. We present results from studies of quotes in English, French, and Arabic, from anti-violence campaigners, politicians, extremists, and terrorists. The algorithms correctly identify extreme statements; and analysis at individual, group, and population levels detects both trends over time and sharp changes attributed to major geopolitical events. Group analysis shows that additional population characteristics can be determined, such as polarisation over particular issues and large-scale shifts in attitude. Finally, MP voting behaviour and statements from publicly-available records are analysed to determine the level of correlation between what people say and what they do.

In many applications, both data samples and features have underlying hierarchical structures. However, existing methods for learning these latent structures typically focus on either samples or features, ignoring possible coupling between them. In this paper, we introduce a coupled hierarchical structure learning method using tree-Wasserstein distance (TWD). Our method jointly computes TWDs for samples and features, representing their latent hierarchies as trees. We propose an iterative, unsupervised procedure to build these sample and feature trees based on diffusion geometry, hyperbolic geometry, and wavelet filters. We show that this iterative procedure converges and empirically improves the quality of the constructed trees. The method is also computationally efficient and scales well in high-dimensional settings. Our method can be seamlessly integrated with hyperbolic graph convolutional networks (HGCN). We demonstrate that our method outperforms competing approaches in sparse approximation and unsupervised Wasserstein distance learning on several word-document and single-cell RNA-sequencing datasets. In addition, integrating our method into HGCN enhances performance in link prediction and node classification tasks.