End-to-end deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success across various domains but are often criticized for their lack of interpretability. While post hoc explanation methods attempt to address this issue, they often fail to accurately represent these black-box models, resulting in misleading or incomplete explanations. To overcome these challenges, we propose an inherently transparent model architecture called Neural Probabilistic Circuits (NPCs), which enable compositional and interpretable predictions through logical reasoning. In particular, an NPC consists of two modules: an attribute recognition model, which predicts probabilities for various attributes, and a task predictor built on a probabilistic circuit, which enables logical reasoning over recognized attributes to make class predictions. To train NPCs, we introduce a three-stage training algorithm comprising attribute recognition, circuit construction, and joint optimization. Moreover, we theoretically demonstrate that an NPC's error is upper-bounded by a linear combination of the errors from its modules. To further demonstrate the interpretability of NPC, we provide both the most probable explanations and the counterfactual explanations. Empirical results on four benchmark datasets show that NPCs strike a balance between interpretability and performance, achieving results competitive even with those of end-to-end black-box models while providing enhanced interpretability.

In this paper, a signal detection method based on the denoise diffusion model (DM) is proposed, which outperforms the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method that has long been regarded as the optimal signal detection technique. Theoretically, a novel mathematical theory for intelligent signal detection based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) is established in this paper, demonstrating the effectiveness of DM in reducing the additive white Gaussian noise in received signals. Moreover, a mathematical relationship between the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the timestep in DM is established, revealing that for any given SNR, a corresponding optimal timestep can be identified. Furthermore, to address potential issues with out-of-distribution inputs in the DM, we employ a mathematical scaling technique that allows the trained DM to handle signal detection across a wide range of SNRs without any fine-tuning. Xiucheng Wang, Peilin Zheng, Nan Cheng are with the State Key Laboratory of ISN and School of Telecommunications Engineering, Xidian University, Xi'an 710071, China. Signal detection plays a critical role in digital baseband transmission, since it estimates which symbols are transmitted by the sender, from the noisy received signals. Thus, the performance of signal detection directly impacts the symbol error rate (SER) of data transmission, which in turn determines the error-free transmission rate, also known as the Shannon threshold [1]. As a result, numerous signal detection techniques have been developed to minimize the SER and bring the transmission rate as close as possible to the Shannon threshold.

Cascaded models are multi-scale generative models with a marked capacity for producing perceptually impressive samples at high resolutions. In this work, we show that they can also be excellent likelihood models, so long as we overcome a fundamental difficulty with probabilistic multi-scale models: the intractability of the likelihood function. Chiefly, in cascaded models each intermediary scale introduces extraneous variables that cannot be tractably marginalized out for likelihood evaluation. This issue vanishes by modeling the diffusion process on latent spaces induced by a class of transformations we call hierarchical volume-preserving maps, which decompose spatially structured data in a hierarchical fashion without introducing local distortions in the latent space. We demonstrate that two such maps are well-known in the literature for multiscale modeling: Laplacian pyramids and wavelet transforms. Not only do such reparameterizations allow the likelihood function to be directly expressed as a joint likelihood over the scales, we show that the Laplacian pyramid and wavelet transform also produces significant improvements to the state-of-the-art on a selection of benchmarks in likelihood modeling, including density estimation, lossless compression, and out-of-distribution detection. Investigating the theoretical basis of our empirical gains we uncover deep connections to score matching under the Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), which is a well-known surrogate for perceptual similarity. Code can be found at \href{https://github.com/lihenryhfl/pcdm}{this https url}.

Brains perform decision-making by Bayes theorem. The theorem quantifies events as probabilities and, based on probability rules, renders the decisions. Learning from this, Bayes theorem can be applied to enable efficient user-scene interactions. However, given the probabilistic nature, implementing Bayes theorem in hardware using conventional deterministic computing can incur excessive computational cost and decision latency. Though challenging, here we present a probabilistic computing approach based on memristors to implement the Bayes theorem. We integrate memristors with Boolean logics and, by exploiting the volatile stochastic switching of the memristors, realise probabilistic logic operations, key for hardware Bayes theorem implementation. To empirically validate the efficacy of the hardware Bayes theorem in user-scene interactions, we develop lightweight Bayesian inference and fusion hardware operators using the probabilistic logics and apply the operators in road scene parsing for self-driving, including route planning and obstacle detection. The results show our operators can achieve reliable decisions in less than 0.4 ms (or equivalently 2,500 fps), outperforming human decision-making and the existing driving assistance systems.

With the rapid advancement of AI systems, their abilities to store, retrieve, and utilize information over the long term - referred to as long-term memory - have become increasingly significant. These capabilities are crucial for enhancing the performance of AI systems across a wide range of tasks. However, there is currently no comprehensive survey that systematically investigates AI's long-term memory capabilities, formulates a theoretical framework, and inspires the development of next-generation AI long-term memory systems. This paper begins by introducing the mechanisms of human long-term memory, then explores AI long-term memory mechanisms, establishing a mapping between the two. Based on the mapping relationships identified, we extend the current cognitive architectures and propose the Cognitive Architecture of Self-Adaptive Long-term Memory (SALM). SALM provides a theoretical framework for the practice of AI long-term memory and holds potential for guiding the creation of next-generation long-term memory driven AI systems. Finally, we delve into the future directions and application prospects of AI long-term memory.

Double reinforcement learning (DRL) enables statistically efficient inference on the value of a policy in a nonparametric Markov Decision Process (MDP) given trajectories generated by another policy. However, this approach necessarily requires stringent overlap between the state distributions, which is often violated in practice. To relax this requirement and extend DRL, we study efficient inference on linear functionals of the $Q$-function (of which policy value is a special case) in infinite-horizon, time-invariant MDPs under semiparametric restrictions on the $Q$-function. These restrictions can reduce the overlap requirement and lower the efficiency bound, yielding more precise estimates. As an important example, we study the evaluation of long-term value under domain adaptation, given a few short trajectories from the new domain and restrictions on the difference between the domains. This can be used for long-term causal inference. Our method combines flexible estimates of the $Q$-function and the Riesz representer of the functional of interest (e.g., the stationary state density ratio for policy value) and is automatic in that we do not need to know the form of the latter - only the functional we care about. To address potential model misspecification bias, we extend the adaptive debiased machine learning (ADML) framework of \citet{van2023adaptive} to construct nonparametrically valid and superefficient estimators that adapt to the functional form of the $Q$-function. As a special case, we propose a novel adaptive debiased plug-in estimator that uses isotonic-calibrated fitted $Q$-iteration - a new calibration algorithm for MDPs - to circumvent the computational challenges of estimating debiasing nuisances from min-max objectives.

Artificial Intelligent transformed industries, like engineering, medicine, finance. Predictive models use supervised learning, a vital Machine learning subset. Crucial for model evaluation, cross-validation includes re-substitution, hold-out, and K-fold. This study focuses on improving the accuracy of ML algorithms across three different datasets. To evaluate Hold-out, Hold-out with iteration, and K-fold Cross-Validation techniques, we created a flexible Python program. By modifying parameters like test size, Random State, and 'k' values, we were able to improve accuracy assessment. The outcomes demonstrate the Hold-out validation method's persistent superiority, particularly with a test size of 10%. With iterations and Random State settings, hold-out with iteration shows little accuracy variance. It suggests that there are variances according to algorithm, with Decision Tree doing best for Framingham and Naive Bayes and K Nearest Neighbors for COVID-19. Different datasets require different optimal K values in K-Fold Cross Validation, highlighting these considerations. This study challenges the universality of K values in K-Fold Cross Validation and suggests a 10% test size and 90% training size for better outcomes. It also emphasizes the contextual impact of dataset features, sample size, feature count, and selected methodologies. Researchers can adapt these codes for their dataset to obtain highest accuracy with specific evaluation.

Safety is a critical aspect of the air transport system given even slight operational anomalies can result in serious consequences. To reduce the chances of aviation safety occurrences, accidents and incidents are reported to establish the root cause, propose safety recommendations etc. However, analysis narratives of the pre-accident events are presented using human-understandable, raw, unstructured, text that a computer system cannot understand. The ability to classify and categorise safety occurrences from their textual narratives would help aviation industry stakeholders make informed safety-critical decisions. To classify and categorise safety occurrences, we applied natural language processing (NLP) and AI (Artificial Intelligence) models to process text narratives. The study aimed to answer the question. How well can the damage level caused to the aircraft in a safety occurrence be inferred from the text narrative using natural language processing. The classification performance of various deep learning models including LSTM, BLSTM, GRU, sRNN, and combinations of these models including LSTM and GRU, BLSTM+GRU, sRNN and LSTM, sRNN and BLSTM, sRNN and GRU, sRNN and BLSTM and GRU, and sRNN and LSTM and GRU was evaluated on a set of 27,000 safety occurrence reports from the NTSB. The results of this study indicate that all models investigated performed competitively well recording an accuracy of over 87.9% which is well above the random guess of 25% for a four-class classification problem. Also, the models recorded high precision, recall, and F1 scores above 80%, 88%, and 85%, respectively. sRNN slightly outperformed other single models in terms of recall (90%) and accuracy (90%) while LSTM reported slightly better performance in terms of precision (87%).

This paper introduces a novel Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) framework to enhance integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) networks using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarms as sensing radars. By framing the positioning and trajectory optimization of UAVs as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, we develop a MARL approach that leverages centralized training with decentralized execution to maximize the overall sensing performance. Specifically, we implement a decentralized cooperative MARL strategy to enable UAVs to develop effective communication protocols, therefore enhancing their environmental awareness and operational efficiency. Additionally, we augment the MARL solution with a transmission power adaptation technique to mitigate interference between the communicating drones and optimize the communication protocol efficiency. Moreover, a transmission power adaptation technique is incorporated to mitigate interference and optimize the learned communication protocol efficiency. Despite the increased complexity, our solution demonstrates robust performance and adaptability across various scenarios, providing a scalable and cost-effective enhancement for future ISAC networks.

AI models that predict the future behavior of a system (a.k.a. predictive AI models) are central to intelligent decision-making. However, decision-making using predictive AI models often results in suboptimal performance. This is primarily because AI models are typically constructed to best fit the data, and hence to predict the most likely future rather than to enable high-performance decision-making. The hope that such prediction enables high-performance decisions is neither guaranteed in theory nor established in practice. In fact, there is increasing empirical evidence that predictive models must be tailored to decision-making objectives for performance. In this paper, we establish formal (necessary and sufficient) conditions that a predictive model (AI-based or not) must satisfy for a decision-making policy established using that model to be optimal. We then discuss their implications for building predictive AI models for sequential decision-making.