This work presents novel algorithms for learning Bayesian networks of bounded treewidth. Both exact and approximate methods are developed. The exact method combines mixed integer linear programming formulations for structure learning and treewidth computation. The approximate method consists in sampling k-trees (maximal graphs of treewidth k), and subsequently selecting, exactly or approximately, the best structure whose moral graph is a subgraph of that k-tree. The approaches are empirically compared to each other and to state-of-the-art methods on a collection of public data sets with up to 100 variables.

We propose new methods for learning Bayesian networks (BNs) that reliably support fast inference. We utilize maximum state space size as a more fine-grained measure for the BN's reasoning complexity than the standard treewidth measure, thereby accommodating the possibility that variables range over domains of different sizes. Our methods combine heuristic BN structure learning algorithms with the recently introduced MaxSAT-powered local improvement method (Peruvemba Ramaswamy and Szeider, AAAI'21). Our experiments show that our new learning methods produce BNs that support significantly faster exact probabilistic inference than BNs learned with treewidth bounds.

In this paper, we propose a learning approach for the Mixture of Hidden Markov Models (MHMM) based on the Method of Moments (MoM). Computational advantages of MoM make MHMM learning amenable for large data sets. It is not possible to directly learn an MHMM with existing learning approaches, mainly due to a permutation ambiguity in the estimation process. We show that it is possible to resolve this ambiguity using the spectral properties of a global transition matrix even in the presence of estimation noise. We demonstrate the validity of our approach on synthetic and real data.

In this paper, we present a new approach for lifted MAP inference in Markov logic networks (MLNs). The key idea in our approach is to compactly encode the MAP inference problem as an Integer Polynomial Program (IPP) by schematically applying three lifted inference steps to the MLN: lifted decomposition, lifted conditioning, and partial grounding. Our IPP encoding is lifted in the sense that an integer assignment to a variable in the IPP may represent a truth-assignment to multiple indistinguishable ground atoms in the MLN. We show how to solve the IPP by first converting it to an Integer Linear Program (ILP) and then solving the latter using state-of-the-art ILP techniques. Experiments on several benchmark MLNs show that our new algorithm is substantially superior to ground inference and existing methods in terms of computational efficiency and solution quality.

However, training and sampling from EBMs continue to pose significant challenges. The widely-used Denoising Score Matching (DSM) method for scalable EBM training suffers from inconsistency issues, causing the energy model to learn a noisy data distribution. In this work, we propose an efficient sampling framework: (pseudo)-Gibbs sampling with moment matching, which enables effective sampling from the underlying clean model when given a noisy model that has been well-trained via DSM. We explore the benefits of our approach compared to related methods and demonstrate how to scale the method to high-dimensional datasets.

We show that the usual score function for conditional Markov networks can be written as the expectation over the scores of their spanning trees. We also show that a small random sample of these output trees can attain a significant fraction of the margin obtained by the complete graph and we provide conditions under which we can perform tractable inference. The experimental results confirm that practical learning is scalable to realistic datasets using this approach.

The Markov property serves as a foundational assumption in most existing work on vehicle driving behavior, positing that future states depend solely on the current state, not the series of preceding states. This study validates the Markov properties of vehicle trajectories for both Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and Human-driven Vehicles (HVs). A statistical method used to test whether time series data exhibits Markov properties is applied to examine whether the trajectory data possesses Markov characteristics. t test and F test are additionally introduced to characterize the differences in Markov properties between AVs and HVs. Based on two public trajectory datasets, we investigate the presence and order of the Markov property of different types of vehicles through rigorous statistical tests. Our findings reveal that AV trajectories generally exhibit stronger Markov properties compared to HV trajectories, with a higher percentage conforming to the Markov property and lower Markov orders. In contrast, HV trajectories display greater variability and heterogeneity in decision-making processes, reflecting the complex perception and information processing involved in human driving. These results have significant implications for the development of driving behavior models, AV controllers, and traffic simulation systems. Our study also demonstrates the feasibility of using statistical methods to test the presence of Markov properties in driving trajectory data.

Activity schedules, which represent the activities and associated travel behaviours of individuals, are a core component of many applied models in the transport, energy and epidemiology domains. Our data driven approach learns human preferences and scheduling logic without the need for complex interacting combinations of sub-models and custom-rules, this makes our approach significantly faster and simpler to operate that existing approaches. We find activity schedule data combines aspects of both continuous image data and also discrete text data, requiring novel approaches. We additionally contribute a novel schedule representation and comprehensive evaluation framework for generated schedules. Evaluation shows our approach is able to rapidly generate large, diverse and realistic synthetic samples of activity schedules.

Alzheimer's Disease is a neurodegenerative condition characterized by dementia and impairment in neurological function. The study primarily focuses on the individuals above age 40, affecting their memory, behavior, and cognitive processes of the brain. Alzheimer's disease requires diagnosis by a detailed assessment of MRI scans and neuropsychological tests of the patients. This project compares existing deep learning models in the pursuit of enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of AD diagnosis, specifically focusing on the Convolutional Neural Network, Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network, and the U-net model with the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies brain MRI dataset. Besides, to ensure robustness and reliability in the model evaluations, we address the challenge of imbalance in data. We then perform rigorous evaluation to determine strengths and weaknesses for each model by considering sensitivity, specificity, and computational efficiency. This comparative analysis would shed light on the future role of AI in revolutionizing AD diagnostics but also paved ways for future innovation in medical imaging and the management of neurodegenerative diseases.

Parameter estimation is a fundamental challenge in machine learning, crucial for tasks such as neural network weight fitting and Bayesian inference. This paper focuses on the complexity of estimating translation $\boldsymbol{\mu} \in \mathbb{R}^l$ and shrinkage $\sigma \in \mathbb{R}_{++}$ parameters for a distribution of the form $\frac{1}{\sigma^l} f_0 \left( \frac{\boldsymbol{x} - \boldsymbol{\mu}}{\sigma} \right)$, where $f_0$ is a known density in $\mathbb{R}^l$ given $n$ samples. We highlight that while the problem is NP-hard for Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), it is possible to obtain $\varepsilon$-approximations for arbitrary $\varepsilon > 0$ within $\text{poly} \left( \frac{1}{\varepsilon} \right)$ time using the Wasserstein distance.