Multiple lines of evidence support the notion that the brain performs probabilistic inference in multiple cognitive domains, including perception and decision making. There is also evidence that probabilistic inference may be implemented in the brain through the (quasi-)stochastic activity of neural circuits, producing samples from the appropriate posterior distributions, effectively implementing a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. However, time becomes a fundamental bottleneck in such sampling-based probabilistic representations: the quality of inferences depends on how fast the neural circuit generates new, uncorrelated samples from its stationary distribution (the posterior). We explore this bottleneck in a simple, linear-Gaussian latent variable model, in which posterior sampling can be achieved by stochastic neural networks with linear dynamics. The well-known Langevin sampling (LS) recipe, so far the only sampling algorithm for continuous variables of which a neural implementation has been suggested, naturally fits into this dynamical framework. However, we first show analytically and through simulations that the symmetry of the synaptic weight matrix implied by LS yields critically slow mixing when the posterior is high-dimensional. Next, using methods from control theory, we construct and inspect networks that are optimally fast, and hence orders of magnitude faster than LS, while being far more biologically plausible. In these networks, strong - but transient - selective amplification of external noise generates the spatially correlated activity fluctuations prescribed by the posterior. Intriguingly, although a detailed balance of excitation and inhibition is dynamically maintained, detailed balance of Markov chain steps in the resulting sampler is violated, consistent with recent findings on how statistical irreversibility can overcome the speed limitation of random walks in other domains.

The prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the evolution of the variance. Moreover, functional parameters are usually learned by maximum likelihood, which can lead to overfitting. To address these problems we introduce GP-Vol, a novel non-parametric model for time-changing variances based on Gaussian Processes. This new model can capture highly flexible functional relationships for the variances. Furthermore, we introduce a new online algorithm for fast inference in GP-Vol. This method is much faster than current offline inference procedures and it avoids overfitting problems by following a fully Bayesian approach. Experiments with financial data show that GP-Vol performs significantly better than current standard alternatives.

The idea that animals might use information-driven planning to explore an unknown environment and build an internal model of it has been proposed for quite some time. Recent work has demonstrated that agents using this principle can efficiently learn models of probabilistic environments with discrete, bounded state spaces. However, animals and robots are commonly confronted with unbounded environments. To address this more challenging situation, we study informationbased learning strategies of agents in unbounded state spaces using non-parametric Bayesian models. Specifically, we demonstrate that the Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) model is able to solve this problem and that an Empirical Bayes version is able to efficiently explore bounded and unbounded worlds by relying on little prior information.

Humans are able to segregate auditory objects in a complex acoustic scene, through an interplay of bottom-up feature extraction and top-down selective attention in the brain. The detailed mechanism underlying this process is largely unknown and the ability to mimic this procedure is an important problem in artificial intelligence and computational neuroscience. We consider the problem of decoding the attentional state of a listener in a competing-speaker environment from magnetoencephalographic (MEG) recordings from the human brain. We develop a behaviorally inspired state-space model to account for the modulation of the MEG with respect to attentional state of the listener. We construct a decoder based on the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the state parameters via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The resulting decoder is able to track the attentional modulation of the listener with multi-second resolution using only the envelopes of the two speech streams as covariates.

In this paper, we prove that every multivariate polynomial with even degree can be decomposed into a sum of convex and concave polynomials. Motivated by this property, we exploit the concave-convex procedure to perform inference on continuous Markov random fields with polynomial potentials. In particular, we show that the concave-convex decomposition of polynomials can be expressed as a sum-of-squares optimization, which can be efficiently solved via semidefinite programing. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in the context of 3D reconstruction, shape from shading and image denoising, and show that our method significantly outperforms existing techniques in terms of efficiency as well as quality of the retrieved solution.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates, robustness to over-fitting, and principled ways for tuning hyper-parameters. However the scalability of these models to big datasets remains an active topic of research. We introduce a novel re-parametrisation of variational inference for sparse GP regression and latent variable models that allows for an efficient distributed algorithm. This is done by exploiting the decoupling of the data given the inducing points to re-formulate the evidence lower bound in a Map-Reduce setting. We show that the inference scales well with data and computational resources, while preserving a balanced distribution of the load among the nodes. We further demonstrate the utility in scaling Gaussian processes to big data. We show that GP performance improves with increasing amounts of data in regression (on flight data with 2 million records) and latent variable modelling (on MNIST). The results show that GPs perform better than many common models often used for big data.

We develop collaborative topic Poisson factorization (CTPF), a generative model of articles and reader preferences. CTPF can be used to build recommender systems by learning from reader histories and content to recommend personalized articles of interest. In detail, CTPF models both reader behavior and article texts with Poisson distributions, connecting the latent topics that represent the texts with the latent preferences that represent the readers. This provides better recommendations than competing methods and gives an interpretable latent space for understanding patterns of readership. Further, we exploit stochastic variational inference to model massive real-world datasets. For example, we can fit CPTF to the full arXiv usage dataset, which contains over 43 million ratings and 42 million word counts, within a day. We demonstrate empirically that our model outperforms several baselines, including the previous state-of-the art approach.

The specific problem we study is learning the parameters of a Mallows Mixture Model. Despite being widely studied, current heuristics for this problem do not have theoretical guarantees and can get stuck in bad local optima. We present the first polynomial time algorithm which provably learns the parameters of a mixture of two Mallows models. A key component of our algorithm is a novel use of tensor decomposition techniques to learn the top-k prefix in both the rankings. Before this work, even the question of identifiability in the case of a mixture of two Mallows models was unresolved.

Lifted inference algorithms for probabilistic first-order logic frameworks such as Markov logic networks (MLNs) have received significant attention in recent years. These algorithms use so called lifting rules to identify symmetries in the first-order representation and reduce the inference problem over a large probabilistic model to an inference problem over a much smaller model. In this paper, we present two new lifting rules, which enable fast MAP inference in a large class of MLNs. Our first rule uses the concept of single occurrence equivalence class of logical variables, which we define in the paper. The rule states that the MAP assignment over an MLN can be recovered from a much smaller MLN, in which each logical variable in each single occurrence equivalence class is replaced by a constant (i.e., an object in the domain of the variable). Our second rule states that we can safely remove a subset of formulas from the MLN if all equivalence classes of variables in the remaining MLN are single occurrence and all formulas in the subset are tautology (i.e., evaluate to true) at extremes (i.e., assignments with identical truth value for groundings of a predicate). We prove that our two new rules are sound and demonstrate via a detailed experimental evaluation that our approach is superior in terms of scalability and MAP solution quality to the state of the art approaches.

We present max-margin Bayesian clustering (BMC), a general and robust framework that incorporates the max-margin criterion into Bayesian clustering models, as well as two concrete models of BMC to demonstrate its flexibility and effectiveness in dealing with different clustering tasks. The Dirichlet process max-margin Gaussian mixture is a nonparametric Bayesian clustering model that relaxes the underlying Gaussian assumption of Dirichlet process Gaussian mixtures by incorporating max-margin posterior constraints, and is able to infer the number of clusters from data. We further extend the ideas to present max-margin clustering topic model, which can learn the latent topic representation of each document while at the same time cluster documents in the max-margin fashion. Extensive experiments are performed on a number of real datasets, and the results indicate superior clustering performance of our methods compared to related baselines.