We revisit from a statistical learning perspective the classical decision-theoretic problem of weighted expert voting. In particular, we examine the consistency (both asymptotic and finitary) of the optimal Nitzan-Paroush weighted majority and related rules. In the case of known expert competence levels, we give sharp error estimates for the optimal rule. When the competence levels are unknown, they must be empirically estimated. We provide frequentist and Bayesian analyses for this situation. Some of our proof techniques are non-standard and may be of independent interest. The bounds we derive are nearly optimal, and several challenging open problems are posed.

We propose a semi-parametric and dynamic rank factor model for topic modeling, capable of (i) discovering topic prevalence over time, and (ii) learning contemporary multi-scale dependence structures, providing topic and word correlations as a byproduct. The high-dimensional and time-evolving ordinal/rank observations (such as word counts), after an arbitrary monotone transformation, are well accommodated through an underlying dynamic sparse factor model. The framework naturally admits heavy-tailed innovations, capable of inferring abrupt temporal jumps in the importance of topics. Posterior inference is performed through straightforward Gibbs sampling, based on the forward-filtering backwardsampling algorithm. Moreover, an efficient data subsampling scheme is leveraged to speed up inference on massive datasets. The modeling framework is illustrated on two real datasets: the US State of the Union Address and the JSTOR collection from Science.

We introduce a novel probabilistic tracking algorithm that incorporates combinatorial data association constraints and model-based track management using variational Bayes. We use a Bethe entropy approximation to incorporate data association constraints that are often ignored in previous probabilistic tracking algorithms. Noteworthy aspects of our method include a model-based mechanism to replace heuristic logic typically used to initiate and destroy tracks, and an assignment posterior with linear computation cost in window length as opposed to the exponential scaling of previous MAP-based approaches. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on radar tracking and computer vision problems. The field of tracking is broad and possesses many applications, particularly in radar/sonar [1], robotics [14], and computer vision [3].

Attention has long been proposed by psychologists to be important for efficiently dealing with the massive amounts of sensory stimulus in the neocortex. Inspired by the attention models in visual neuroscience and the need for object-centered data for generative models, we propose a deep-learning based generative framework using attention. The attentional mechanism propagates signals from the region of interest in a scene to an aligned canonical representation for generative modeling. By ignoring scene background clutter, the generative model can concentrate its resources on the object of interest. A convolutional neural net is employed to provide good initializations during posterior inference which uses Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Upon learning images of faces, our model can robustly attend to the face region of novel test subjects. More importantly, our model can learn generative models of new faces from a novel dataset of large images where the face locations are not known.

The Jacobi metric introduced in mathematical physics can be used to analyze Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC).

We consider the problem of online planning in a Markov decision process with discounted rewards for any given initial state. We consider the PAC sample complexity problem of computing, with probability 1 δ, an ɛ-optimal action using the smallest possible number of calls to the generative model (which provides reward and next-state samples). We design an algorithm, called StOP (for Stochastic-Optimistic Planning), based on the "optimism in the face of uncertainty" principle. StOP can be used in the general setting, requires only a generative model, and enjoys a complexity bound that only depends on the local structure of the MDP.

We reduce a broad class of fundamental machine learning problems, usually addressed by EM or sampling, to the problem of finding the k extreme rays spanning the conical hull of a1 data point set. These k "anchors" lead to a global solution and a more interpretable model that can even outperform EM and sampling on generalization error. To find the k anchors, we propose a novel divide-andconquer learning scheme "DCA" that distributes the problem to O(k log k) sametype sub-problems on different low-D random hyperplanes, each can be solved independently by any existing solver. For the 2D sub-problem, we instead present a non-iterative solver that only needs to compute an array of cosine values and its max/min entries. DCA also provides a faster subroutine inside other algorithms to check whether a point is covered in a conical hull, and thus improves these algorithms by providing significant speedups. We apply our method to GMM, HMM, LDA, NMF and subspace clustering, then show its competitive performance and scalability over other methods on large datasets.

We propose a technique for decomposing the parameter learning problem in Bayesian networks into independent learning problems. Our technique applies to incomplete datasets and exploits variables that are either hidden or observed in the given dataset. We show empirically that the proposed technique can lead to orders-of-magnitude savings in learning time. We explain, analytically and empirically, the reasons behind our reported savings, and compare the proposed technique to related ones that are sometimes used by inference algorithms.

In Learning with Label Proportions (LLP), the objective is to learn a supervised classifier when, instead of labels, only label proportions for bags of observations are known. This setting has broad practical relevance, in particular for privacy preserving data processing. We first show that the mean operator, a statistic which aggregates all labels, is minimally sufficient for the minimization of many proper scoring losses with linear (or kernelized) classifiers without using labels. We provide a fast learning algorithm that estimates the mean operator via a manifold regularizer with guaranteed approximation bounds. Then, we present an iterative learning algorithm that uses this as initialization. We ground this algorithm in Rademacher-style generalization bounds that fit the LLP setting, introducing a generalization of Rademacher complexity and a Label Proportion Complexity measure.

Sampling from hierarchical Bayesian models is often difficult for MCMC methods, because of the strong correlations between the model parameters and the hyperparameters. Recent Riemannian manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) methods have significant potential advantages in this setting, but are computationally expensive. We introduce a new RMHMC method, which we call semi-separable Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, which uses a specially designed mass matrix that allows the joint Hamiltonian over model parameters and hyperparameters to decompose into two simpler Hamiltonians. This structure is exploited by a new integrator which we call the alternating blockwise leapfrog algorithm. The resulting method can mix faster than simpler Gibbs sampling while being simpler and more efficient than previous instances of RMHMC.