Learning Graphical Models
Learning an Optimal Assortment Policy under Observational Data
Han, Yuxuan, Zhong, Han, Lu, Miao, Blanchet, Jose, Zhou, Zhengyuan
We study the fundamental problem of offline assortment optimization under the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, where sellers must determine the optimal subset of the products to offer based solely on historical customer choice data. While most existing approaches to learning-based assortment optimization focus on the online learning of the optimal assortment through repeated interactions with customers, such exploration can be costly or even impractical in many real-world settings. In this paper, we consider the offline learning paradigm and investigate the minimal data requirements for efficient offline assortment optimization. To this end, we introduce Pessimistic Rank-Breaking (PRB), an algorithm that combines rank-breaking with pessimistic estimation. We prove that PRB is nearly minimax optimal by establishing the tight suboptimality upper bound and a nearly matching lower bound. This further shows that "optimal item coverage" - where each item in the optimal assortment appears sufficiently often in the historical data - is both sufficient and necessary for efficient offline learning. This significantly relaxes the previous requirement of observing the complete optimal assortment in the data. Our results provide fundamental insights into the data requirements for offline assortment optimization under the MNL model.
Pre-Trained Video Generative Models as World Simulators
He, Haoran, Zhang, Yang, Lin, Liang, Xu, Zhongwen, Pan, Ling
Video generative models pre-trained on large-scale internet datasets have achieved remarkable success, excelling at producing realistic synthetic videos. However, they often generate clips based on static prompts (e.g., text or images), limiting their ability to model interactive and dynamic scenarios. In this paper, we propose Dynamic World Simulation (DWS), a novel approach to transform pre-trained video generative models into controllable world simulators capable of executing specified action trajectories. To achieve precise alignment between conditioned actions and generated visual changes, we introduce a lightweight, universal action-conditioned module that seamlessly integrates into any existing model. Instead of focusing on complex visual details, we demonstrate that consistent dynamic transition modeling is the key to building powerful world simulators. Building upon this insight, we further introduce a motion-reinforced loss that enhances action controllability by compelling the model to capture dynamic changes more effectively. Experiments demonstrate that DWS can be versatilely applied to both diffusion and autoregressive transformer models, achieving significant improvements in generating action-controllable, dynamically consistent videos across games and robotics domains. Moreover, to facilitate the applications of the learned world simulator in downstream tasks such as model-based reinforcement learning, we propose prioritized imagination to improve sample efficiency, demonstrating competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods.
Do Deep Nets Really Need to be Deep?
Currently, deep neural networks are the state of the art on problems such as speech recognition and computer vision. In this paper we empirically demonstrate that shallow feed-forward nets can learn the complex functions previously learned by deep nets and achieve accuracies previously only achievable with deep models. Moreover, in some cases the shallow nets can learn these deep functions using the same number of parameters as the original deep models. On the TIMIT phoneme recognition and CIFAR-10 image recognition tasks, shallow nets can be trained that perform similarly to complex, well-engineered, deeper convolutional models.
Simple MAP Inference via Low-Rank Relaxations
Roy Frostig, Sida Wang, Percy S. Liang, Christopher D. Manning
We focus on the problem of maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference in Markov random fields with binary variables and pairwise interactions. For this common subclass of inference tasks, we consider low-rank relaxations that interpolate between the discrete problem and its full-rank semidefinite relaxation. We develop new theoretical bounds studying the effect of rank, showing that as the rank grows, the relaxed objective increases but saturates, and that the fraction in objective value retained by the rounded discrete solution decreases. In practice, we show two algorithms for optimizing the low-rank objectives which are simple to implement, enjoy ties to the underlying theory, and outperform existing approaches on benchmark MAP inference tasks.
Neurons as Monte Carlo Samplers: Bayesian Inference and Learning in Spiking Networks
We propose a spiking network model capable of performing both approximate inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower layer sensory neurons detect noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher layer neurons with recurrent connections infer a posterior distribution over world states from spike trains generated by sensory neurons. We show how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in the population of inference neurons represents a sample of a particular hidden world state.
General Table Completion using a Bayesian Nonparametric Model
Isabel Valera, Zoubin Ghahramani
Even though heterogeneous databases can be found in a broad variety of applications, there exists a lack of tools for estimating missing data in such databases. In this paper, we provide an efficient and robust table completion tool, based on a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model. In particular, we propose a general observation model for the Indian buffet process (IBP) adapted to mixed continuous (real-valued and positive real-valued) and discrete (categorical, ordinal and count) observations. Then, we propose an inference algorithm that scales linearly with the number of observations. Finally, our experiments over five real databases show that the proposed approach provides more robust and accurate estimates than the standard IBP and the Bayesian probabilistic matrix factorization with Gaussian observations.
Automatic Discovery of Cognitive Skills to Improve the Prediction of Student Learning
Robert V. Lindsey, Mohammad Khajah, Michael C. Mozer
To master a discipline such as algebra or physics, students must acquire a set of cognitive skills. Traditionally, educators and domain experts use intuition to determine what these skills are and then select practice exercises to hone a particular skill. We propose a technique that uses student performance data to automatically discover the skills needed in a discipline. The technique assigns a latent skill to each exercise such that a student's expected accuracy on a sequence of same-skill exercises improves monotonically with practice. Rather than discarding the skills identified by experts, our technique incorporates a nonparametric prior over the exerciseskill assignments that is based on the expert-provided skills and a weighted Chinese restaurant process.
A Probabilistic Framework for Multimodal Retrieval using Integrative Indian Buffet Process
Bahadir Ozdemir, Larry S. Davis
We propose a multimodal retrieval procedure based on latent feature models. The procedure consists of a Bayesian nonparametric framework for learning underlying semantically meaningful abstract features in a multimodal dataset, a probabilistic retrieval model that allows cross-modal queries and an extension model for relevance feedback. Experiments on two multimodal datasets, PASCAL-Sentence and SUN-Attribute, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed retrieval procedure in comparison to the state-of-the-art algorithms for learning binary codes.
Augur: Data-Parallel Probabilistic Modeling
Jean-Baptiste Tristan, Daniel Huang, Joseph Tassarotti, Adam C. Pocock, Stephen Green, Guy L. Steele
Implementing inference procedures for each new probabilistic model is timeconsuming and error-prone. Probabilistic programming addresses this problem by allowing a user to specify the model and then automatically generating the inference procedure. To make this practical it is important to generate high performance inference code. In turn, on modern architectures, high performance requires parallel execution. In this paper we present Augur, a probabilistic modeling language and compiler for Bayesian networks designed to make effective use of data-parallel architectures such as GPUs. We show that the compiler can generate data-parallel inference code scalable to thousands of GPU cores by making use of the conditional independence relationships in the Bayesian network.