Two seemingly contradictory theories attempt to explain how humans move to intercept an airborne ball. One theory posits that humans predict the ball trajectory to optimally plan future actions; the other claims that, instead of performing such complicated computations, humans employ heuristics to reactively choose appropriate actions based on immediate visual feedback. In this paper, we show that interception strategies appearing to be heuristics can be understood as computational solutions to the optimal control problem faced by a ball-catching agent acting under uncertainty. Modeling catching as a continuous partially observable Markov decision process and employing stochastic optimal control theory, we discover that the four main heuristics described in the literature are optimal solutions if the catcher has sufficient time to continuously visually track the ball. Specifically, by varying model parameters such as noise, time to ground contact, and perceptual latency, we show that different strategies arise under different circumstances.

Variational methods that rely on a recognition network to approximate the posterior of directed graphical models offer better inference and learning than previous methods. Recent advances that exploit the capacity and flexibility in this approach have expanded what kinds of models can be trained. However, as a proposal for the posterior, the capacity of the recognition network is limited, which can constrain the representational power of the generative model and increase the variance of Monte Carlo estimates. To address these issues, we introduce an iterative refinement procedure for improving the approximate posterior of the recognition network and show that training with the refined posterior is competitive with state-of-the-art methods. The advantages of refinement are further evident in an increased effective sample size, which implies a lower variance of gradient estimates.

A fundamental problem in cognitive neuroscience is how humans make decisions, act, and behave in relation to other humans. Here we adopt the hypothesis that when we are in an interactive social setting, our brains perform Bayesian inference of the intentions and cooperativeness of others using probabilistic representations. We employ the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) to model human decision making in a social context, focusing specifically on the volunteer's dilemma in a version of the classic Public Goods Game. We show that the POMDP model explains both the behavior of subjects as well as neural activity recorded using fMRI during the game. The decisions of subjects can be modeled across all trials using two interpretable parameters.

A score function induced by a generative model of the data can provide a feature vector of a fixed dimension for each data sample. Data samples themselves may be of differing lengths (e.g., speech segments, or other sequence data), but as a score function is based on the properties of the data generation process, it produces a fixed-length vector in a highly informative space, typically referred to as a "score space". Discriminative classifiers have been shown to achieve higher performance in appropriately chosen score spaces than is achievable by either the corresponding generative likelihood-based classifiers, or the discriminative classifiers using standard feature extractors. In this paper, we present a novel score space that exploits the free energy associated with a generative model. The resulting free energy score space (FESS) takes into account latent structure of the data at various levels, and can be trivially shown to lead to classification performance that at least matches the performance of the free energy classifier based on the same generative model, and the same factorization of the posterior. We also show that in several typical vision and computational biology applications the classifiers optimized in FESS outperform the corresponding pure generative approaches, as well as a number of previous approaches to combining discriminating and generative models.

Gaussian graphical models with sparsity in the inverse covariance matrix are of significant interest in many modern applications. For the problem of recovering the graphical structure, information criteria provide useful optimization objectives for algorithms searching through sets of graphs or for selection of tuning parameters of other methods such as the graphical lasso, which is a likelihood penalization technique. In this paper we establish the consistency of an extended Bayesian information criterion for Gaussian graphical models in a scenario where both the number of variables p and the sample size n grow. Compared to earlier work on the regression case, our treatment allows for growth in the number of non-zero parameters in the true model, which is necessary in order to cover connected graphs. We demonstrate the performance of this criterion on simulated data when used in conjunction with the graphical lasso, and verify that the criterion indeed performs better than either cross-validation or the ordinary Bayesian information criterion when p and the number of non-zero parameters q both scale with n.

We develop a novel Bayesian nonparametric model for random bipartite graphs. The model is based on the theory of completely random measures and is able to handle a potentially infinite number of nodes. We show that the model has appealing properties and in particular it may exhibit a power-law behavior. We derive a posterior characterization, a generative process for network growth, and a simple Gibbs sampler for posterior simulation. Our model is shown to be well fitted to several real-world social networks.

Dependent Dirichlet processes (DPs) are dependent sets of random measures, each being marginally DP distributed. They are used in Bayesian nonparametric models when the usual exchangeability assumption does not hold. We propose a simple and general framework to construct dependent DPs by marginalizing and normalizing a single gamma process over an extended space. The result is a set of DPs, each associated with a point in a space such that neighbouring DPs are more dependent. We describe Markov chain Monte Carlo inference involving Gibbs sampling and three different Metropolis-Hastings proposals to speed up convergence. We report an empirical study of convergence on a synthetic dataset and demonstrate an application of the model to topic modeling through time.

We introduce the Gamma-Exponential Process (GEP), a prior over a large family of continuous time stochastic processes. A hierarchical version of this prior (HGEP; the Hierarchical GEP) yields a useful model for analyzing complex time series. Models based on HGEPs display many attractive properties: conjugacy, exchangeability and closed-form predictive distribution for the waiting times, and exact Gibbs updates for the time scale parameters. After establishing these properties, we show how posterior inference can be carried efficiently using Particle MCMC methods [1]. This yields a MCMC algorithm that can resample entire sequences atomically while avoiding the complications of introducing slice and stick auxiliary variables of the beam sampler [2]. We applied our model to the problem of estimating the disease progression in multiple sclerosis [3], and to RNA evolutionary modeling [4]. In both domains, we found that our model outperformed the standard rate matrix estimation approach.

Although it is widely believed that reinforcement learning is a suitable tool for describing behavioral learning, the mechanisms by which it can be implemented in networks of spiking neurons are not fully understood. Here, we show that different learning rules emerge from a policy gradient approach depending on which features of the spike trains are assumed to influence the reward signals, i.e., depending on which neural code is in effect. We use the framework of Williams (1992) to derive learning rules for arbitrary neural codes. For illustration, we present policy-gradient rules for three different example codes - a spike count code, a spike timing code and the most general "full spike train" code - and test them on simple model problems. In addition to classical synaptic learning, we derive learning rules for intrinsic parameters that control the excitability of the neuron. The spike count learning rule has structural similarities with established Bienenstock-Cooper-Munro rules. If the distribution of the relevant spike train features belongs to the natural exponential family, the learning rules have a characteristic shape that raises interesting prediction problems.

Accurate and detailed models of neurodegenerative disease progression are crucially important for reliable early diagnosis and the determination of effective treatments. We introduce the ALPACA (Alzheimer's disease Probabilistic Cascades) model, a generative model linking latent Alzheimer's progression dynamics to observable biomarker data. In contrast with previous works which model disease progression as a fixed event ordering, we explicitly model the variability over such orderings among patients which is more realistic, particularly for highly detailed progression models. We describe efficient learning algorithms for ALPACA and discuss promising experimental results on a real cohort of Alzheimer's patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.