Learning Graphical Models
A Survey of Anomaly Detection in Cyber-Physical Systems
Abshari, Danial, Sridhar, Meera
In our increasingly interconnected world, Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) play a crucial role in industries like healthcare, transportation, and manufacturing by combining physical processes with computing power. These systems, however, face many challenges, especially regarding security and system faults. Anomalies in CPS may indicate unexpected problems, from sensor malfunctions to cyber-attacks, and must be detected to prevent failures that can cause harm or disrupt services. This paper provides an overview of the different ways researchers have approached anomaly detection in CPS. We categorize and compare methods like machine learning, deep learning, mathematical models, invariant, and hybrid techniques. Our goal is to help readers understand the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and how they can be used to create safer, more reliable CPS. By identifying the gaps in current solutions, we aim to encourage future research that will make CPS more secure and adaptive in our increasingly automated world.
Conformal Prediction as Bayesian Quadrature
Snell, Jake C., Griffiths, Thomas L.
As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques such as conformal prediction provide guarantees about the loss black-box models will incur even when the details of the models are hidden. However, such methods are based on frequentist probability, which unduly limits their applicability. We revisit the central aspects of conformal prediction from a Bayesian perspective and thereby illuminate the shortcomings of frequentist guarantees. We propose a practical alternative based on Bayesian quadrature that provides interpretable guarantees and offers a richer representation of the likely range of losses to be observed at test time.
Communication Strategy on Macro-and-Micro Traffic State in Cooperative Deep Reinforcement Learning for Regional Traffic Signal Control
Gu, Hankang, Wang, Shangbo, Jia, Dongyao, Zhang, Yuli, Luo, Yanrong, Mao, Guoqiang, Wang, Jianping, Lim, Eng Gee
Adaptive Traffic Signal Control (ATSC) has become a popular research topic in intelligent transportation systems. Regional Traffic Signal Control (RTSC) using the Multi-agent Deep Reinforcement Learning (MADRL) technique has become a promising approach for ATSC due to its ability to achieve the optimum trade-off between scalability and optimality. Most existing RTSC approaches partition a traffic network into several disjoint regions, followed by applying centralized reinforcement learning techniques to each region. However, the pursuit of cooperation among RTSC agents still remains an open issue and no communication strategy for RTSC agents has been investigated. In this paper, we propose communication strategies to capture the correlation of micro-traffic states among lanes and the correlation of macro-traffic states among intersections. We first justify the evolution equation of the RTSC process is Markovian via a system of store-and-forward queues. Next, based on the evolution equation, we propose two GAT-Aggregated (GA2) communication modules--GA2-Naive and GA2-Aug to extract both intra-region and inter-region correlations between macro and micro traffic states. While GA2-Naive only considers the movements at each intersection, GA2-Aug also considers the lane-changing behavior of vehicles. Two proposed communication modules are then aggregated into two existing novel RTSC frameworks--RegionLight and Regional-DRL. Experimental results demonstrate that both GA2-Naive and GA2-Aug effectively improve the performance of existing RTSC frameworks under both real and synthetic scenarios. Hyperparameter testing also reveals the robustness and potential of our communication modules in large-scale traffic networks.
Bayesian Physics Informed Neural Networks for Linear Inverse problems
Inverse problems arise almost everywhere in science and engineering where we need to infer on a quantity from indirect observation. The cases of medical, biomedical, and industrial imaging systems are the typical examples. A very high overview of classification of the inverse problems method can be: i) Analytical, ii) Regularization, and iii) Bayesian inference methods. Even if there are straight links between them, we can say that the Bayesian inference based methods are the most powerful, as they give the possibility of accounting for prior knowledge and can account for errors and uncertainties in general. One of the main limitations stay in computational costs in particular for high dimensional imaging systems. Neural Networks (NN), and in particular Deep NNs (DNN), have been considered as a way to push farther this limit. Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN) concept integrates physical laws with deep learning techniques to enhance the speed, accuracy and efficiency of the above mentioned problems. In this work, a new Bayesian framework for the concept of PINN (BPINN) is presented and discussed which includes the deterministic one if we use the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation framework. We consider two cases of supervised and unsupervised for training step, obtain the expressions of the posterior probability of the unknown variables, and deduce the posterior laws of the NN's parameters. We also discuss about the challenges of implementation of these methods in real applications.
Tell Me Why: Incentivizing Explanations
Srinivasan, Siddarth, Karger, Ezra, Bakker, Michiel, Chen, Yiling
Common sense suggests that when individuals explain why they believe something, we can arrive at more accurate conclusions than when they simply state what they believe. Yet, there is no known mechanism that provides incentives to elicit explanations for beliefs from agents. This likely stems from the fact that standard Bayesian models make assumptions (like conditional independence of signals) that preempt the need for explanations, in order to show efficient information aggregation. A natural justification for the value of explanations is that agents' beliefs tend to be drawn from overlapping sources of information, so agents' belief reports do not reveal all that needs to be known. Indeed, this work argues that rationales-explanations of an agent's private information-lead to more efficient aggregation by allowing agents to efficiently identify what information they share and what information is new. Building on this model of rationales, we present a novel 'deliberation mechanism' to elicit rationales from agents in which truthful reporting of beliefs and rationales is a perfect Bayesian equilibrium.
Atomic Proximal Policy Optimization for Electric Robo-Taxi Dispatch and Charger Allocation
Dai, Jim, Wu, Manxi, Zhang, Zhanhao
Pioneering companies such as Waymo have deployed robo-taxi services in several U.S. cities. These robo-taxis are electric vehicles, and their operations require the joint optimization of ride matching, vehicle repositioning, and charging scheduling in a stochastic environment. We model the operations of the ride-hailing system with robo-taxis as a discrete-time, average reward Markov Decision Process with infinite horizon. As the fleet size grows, the dispatching is challenging as the set of system state and the fleet dispatching action set grow exponentially with the number of vehicles. To address this, we introduce a scalable deep reinforcement learning algorithm, called Atomic Proximal Policy Optimization (Atomic-PPO), that reduces the action space using atomic action decomposition. We evaluate our algorithm using real-world NYC for-hire vehicle data and we measure the performance using the long-run average reward achieved by the dispatching policy relative to a fluid-based reward upper bound. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our Atomic-PPO compared to benchmarks. Furthermore, we conduct extensive numerical experiments to analyze the efficient allocation of charging facilities and assess the impact of vehicle range and charger speed on fleet performance.
SymAgent: A Neural-Symbolic Self-Learning Agent Framework for Complex Reasoning over Knowledge Graphs
Liu, Ben, Zhang, Jihai, Lin, Fangquan, Yang, Cheng, Peng, Min, Yin, Wotao
Recent advancements have highlighted that Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to hallucinations when solving complex reasoning problems, leading to erroneous results. To tackle this issue, researchers incorporate Knowledge Graphs (KGs) to improve the reasoning ability of LLMs. However, existing methods face two limitations: 1) they typically assume that all answers to the questions are contained in KGs, neglecting the incompleteness issue of KGs, and 2) they treat the KG as a static repository and overlook the implicit logical reasoning structures inherent in KGs. In this paper, we introduce SymAgent, an innovative neural-symbolic agent framework that achieves collaborative augmentation between KGs and LLMs. We conceptualize KGs as dynamic environments and transform complex reasoning tasks into a multi-step interactive process, enabling KGs to participate deeply in the reasoning process. SymAgent consists of two modules: Agent-Planner and Agent-Executor. The Agent-Planner leverages LLM's inductive reasoning capability to extract symbolic rules from KGs, guiding efficient question decomposition. The Agent-Executor autonomously invokes predefined action tools to integrate information from KGs and external documents, addressing the issues of KG incompleteness. Furthermore, we design a self-learning framework comprising online exploration and offline iterative policy updating phases, enabling the agent to automatically synthesize reasoning trajectories and improve performance. Experimental results demonstrate that SymAgent with weak LLM backbones (i.e., 7B series) yields better or comparable performance compared to various strong baselines. Further analysis reveals that our agent can identify missing triples, facilitating automatic KG updates.
Sorting the Babble in Babel: Assessing the Performance of Language Detection Algorithms on the OpenAlex Database
Sainte-Marie, Maxime Holmberg, Kozlowski, Diego, Céspedes, Lucía, Larivière, Vincent
This project aims to compare various language classification procedures, procedures combining various Python language detection algorithms and metadata-based corpora extracted from manually-annotated articles sampled from the OpenAlex database. Following an analysis of precision and recall performance for each algorithm, corpus, and language as well as of processing speeds recorded for each algorithm and corpus type, overall procedure performance at the database level was simulated using probabilistic confusion matrices for each algorithm, corpus, and language as well as a probabilistic model of relative article language frequencies for the whole OpenAlex database. Results show that procedure performance strongly depends on the importance given to each of the measures implemented: for contexts where precision is preferred, using the LangID algorithm on the greedy corpus gives the best results; however, for all cases where recall is considered at least slightly more important than precision or as soon as processing times are given any kind of consideration, the procedure combining the FastSpell algorithm and the Titles corpus outperforms all other alternatives. Given the lack of truly multilingual, large-scale bibliographic databases, it is hoped that these results help confirm and foster the unparalleled potential of the OpenAlex database for cross-linguistic, bibliometric-based research and analysis.
Algorithmic causal structure emerging through compression
Wendong, Liang, Buchholz, Simon, Schölkopf, Bernhard
We explore the relationship between causality, symmetry, and compression. We build on and generalize the known connection between learning and compression to a setting where causal models are not identifiable. We propose a framework where causality emerges as a consequence of compressing data across multiple environments. We define algorithmic causality as an alternative definition of causality when traditional assumptions for causal identifiability do not hold. We demonstrate how algorithmic causal and symmetric structures can emerge from minimizing upper bounds on Kolmogorov complexity, without knowledge of intervention targets. We hypothesize that these insights may also provide a novel perspective on the emergence of causality in machine learning models, such as large language models, where causal relationships may not be explicitly identifiable.
Uncertainty-Aware Graph Structure Learning
Han, Shen, Zhou, Zhiyao, Chen, Jiawei, Hao, Zhezheng, Zhou, Sheng, Wang, Gang, Feng, Yan, Chen, Chun, Wang, Can
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have become a prominent approach for learning from graph-structured data. However, their effectiveness can be significantly compromised when the graph structure is suboptimal. To address this issue, Graph Structure Learning (GSL) has emerged as a promising technique that refines node connections adaptively. Nevertheless, we identify two key limitations in existing GSL methods: 1) Most methods primarily focus on node similarity to construct relationships, while overlooking the quality of node information. Blindly connecting low-quality nodes and aggregating their ambiguous information can degrade the performance of other nodes. 2) The constructed graph structures are often constrained to be symmetric, which may limit the model's flexibility and effectiveness. To overcome these limitations, we propose an Uncertainty-aware Graph Structure Learning (UnGSL) strategy. UnGSL estimates the uncertainty of node information and utilizes it to adjust the strength of directional connections, where the influence of nodes with high uncertainty is adaptively reduced.Importantly, UnGSL serves as a plug-in module that can be seamlessly integrated into existing GSL methods with minimal additional computational cost. In our experiments, we implement UnGSL into six representative GSL methods, demonstrating consistent performance improvements. The code is available at https://github.com/UnHans/UnGSL.