We propose a robust and scalable framework for variational Bayes (VB) that effectively handles outliers and contamination of arbitrary nature in large datasets. Our approach divides the dataset into disjoint subsets, computes the posterior for each subset, and applies VB approximation independently to these posteriors. The resulting variational posteriors with respect to the subsets are then aggregated using the geometric median of probability measures, computed with respect to the Wasserstein distance. This novel aggregation method yields the Variational Median Posterior (VM-Posterior) distribution. We rigorously demonstrate that the VM-Posterior preserves contraction properties akin to those of the true posterior, while accounting for approximation errors or the variational gap inherent in VB methods. We also provide provable robustness guarantee of the VM-Posterior. Furthermore, we establish a variational Bernstein-von Mises theorem for both multivariate Gaussian distributions with general covariance structures and the mean-field variational family. To facilitate practical implementation, we adapt existing algorithms for computing the VM-Posterior and evaluate its performance through extensive numerical experiments. The results highlight its robustness and scalability, making it a reliable tool for Bayesian inference in the presence of complex, contaminated datasets.

Constraint-based causal discovery algorithms utilize many statistical tests for conditional independence to uncover networks of causal dependencies. These approaches to causal discovery rely on an assumed correspondence between the graphical properties of a causal structure and the conditional independence properties of observed variables, known as the causal Markov condition and faithfulness. Finite data yields an empirical distribution that is "close" to the actual distribution. Across these many possible empirical distributions, the correspondence to the graphical properties can break down for different conditional independencies, and multiple violations can occur at the same time. We study this "meta-dependence" between conditional independence properties using the following geometric intuition: each conditional independence property constrains the space of possible joint distributions to a manifold. The "meta-dependence" between conditional independences is informed by the position of these manifolds relative to the true probability distribution. We provide a simple-to-compute measure of this meta-dependence using information projections and consolidate our findings empirically using both synthetic and real-world data.

--Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown outstanding performance across a variety of tasks, partly due to advanced prompting techniques. However, these techniques often require lengthy prompts, which increase computational costs and can hinder performance because of the limited context windows of LLMs. While prompt compression is a straightforward solution, existing methods confront the challenges of retaining essential information, adapting to context changes, and remaining effective across different tasks. T o tackle these issues, we propose a task-agnostic method called Dynamic Compressing Prompts (LLM-DCP). Our method reduces the number of prompt tokens while aiming to preserve the performance as much as possible. We model prompt compression as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), enabling the DCP-Agent to sequentially remove redundant tokens by adapting to dynamic contexts and retaining crucial content. We develop a reward function for training the DCP-Agent that balances the compression rate, the quality of the LLM output, and the retention of key information. This allows for prompt token reduction without needing an external black-box LLM. Inspired by the progressive difficulty adjustment in curriculum learning, we introduce a Hierarchical Prompt Compression (HPC) training strategy that gradually increases the compression difficulty, enabling the DCP-Agent to learn an effective compression method that maintains information integrity. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques, especially at higher compression rates. The code for our approach will be available at https://github.com/Fhujinwu/DCP .

Recommending items to users has long been a fundamental task, and studies have tried to improve it ever since. Most well-known models commonly employ representation learning to map users and items into a unified embedding space for matching assessment. These approaches have primary limitations, especially when dealing with explicit feedback and sparse data contexts. Two primary limitations are their proneness to overfitting and failure to incorporate epistemic uncertainty in predictions. To address these problems, we propose a novel Bayesian Deep Ensemble Collaborative Filtering method named BDECF. To improve model generalization and quality, we utilize Bayesian Neural Networks, which incorporate uncertainty within their weight parameters. In addition, we introduce a new interpretable non-linear matching approach for the user and item embeddings, leveraging the advantages of the attention mechanism. Furthermore, we endorse the implementation of an ensemble-based supermodel to generate more robust and reliable predictions, resulting in a more complete model. Empirical evaluation through extensive experiments and ablation studies across a range of publicly accessible real-world datasets with differing sparsity characteristics confirms our proposed method's effectiveness and the importance of its components.

We compare the performance of human and artificially intelligent (AI) decision makers in simple binary classification tasks where the optimal decision rule is given by Bayes Rule. We reanalyze choices of human subjects gathered from laboratory experiments conducted by El-Gamal and Grether and Holt and Smith. We confirm that while overall, Bayes Rule represents the single best model for predicting human choices, subjects are heterogeneous and a significant share of them make suboptimal choices that reflect judgement biases described by Kahneman and Tversky that include the ``representativeness heuristic'' (excessive weight on the evidence from the sample relative to the prior) and ``conservatism'' (excessive weight on the prior relative to the sample). We compare the performance of AI subjects gathered from recent versions of large language models (LLMs) including several versions of ChatGPT. These general-purpose generative AI chatbots are not specifically trained to do well in narrow decision making tasks, but are trained instead as ``language predictors'' using a large corpus of textual data from the web. We show that ChatGPT is also subject to biases that result in suboptimal decisions. However we document a rapid evolution in the performance of ChatGPT from sub-human performance for early versions (ChatGPT 3.5) to superhuman and nearly perfect Bayesian classifications in the latest versions (ChatGPT 4o).

Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents offer cross-platform solutions for automating complex digital tasks, with significant potential to transform productivity workflows. However, their performance is often constrained by the scarcity of high-quality trajectory data. To address this limitation, we propose training Vision Language Models (VLMs) on data-rich, reasoning-intensive tasks during a dedicated mid-training stage, and then examine how incorporating these tasks facilitates generalization to GUI planning scenarios. Specifically, we explore a range of tasks with readily available instruction-tuning data, including GUI perception, multimodal reasoning, and textual reasoning. Through extensive experiments across 11 mid-training tasks, we demonstrate that: (1) Task generalization proves highly effective, yielding substantial improvements across most settings. For instance, multimodal mathematical reasoning enhances performance on AndroidWorld by an absolute 6.3%. Remarkably, text-only mathematical data significantly boosts GUI web agent performance, achieving a 5.6% improvement on WebArena and 5.4% improvement on AndroidWorld, underscoring notable cross-modal generalization from text-based to visual domains; (2) Contrary to prior assumptions, GUI perception data - previously considered closely aligned with GUI agent tasks and widely utilized for training - has a comparatively limited impact on final performance; (3) Building on these insights, we identify the most effective mid-training tasks and curate optimized mixture datasets, resulting in absolute performance gains of 8.0% on WebArena and 12.2% on AndroidWorld. Our work provides valuable insights into cross-domain knowledge transfer for GUI agents and offers a practical approach to addressing data scarcity challenges in this emerging field. The code, data and models will be available at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/GUIMid.

In today's globalized world, there are increasing opportunities for individuals to communicate using a common non-native language (lingua franca). Non-native speakers often have opportunities to listen to foreign languages, but may not comprehend them as fully as native speakers do. To aid real-time comprehension, live transcription of subtitles is frequently used in everyday life (e.g., during Zoom conversations, watching YouTube videos, or on social networking sites). However, simultaneously reading subtitles while listening can increase cognitive load. In this study, we propose Dynamik, a system that reduces cognitive load during reading by decreasing the size of less important words and enlarging important ones, thereby enhancing sentence contrast. Our results indicate that Dynamik can reduce certain aspects of cognitive load, specifically, participants' perceived performance and effort among individuals with low proficiency in English, as well as enhance the users' sense of comprehension, especially among people with low English ability. We further discuss our methods' applicability to other languages and potential improvements and further research directions.

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes mixed-effects models widely applied in fields such as biology, pharmacokinetics, and sociology. In this work, we propose a novel methodology for scalable Bayesian inference in hierarchical mixed-effects models. Our framework first constructs amortized approximations of the likelihood and the posterior distribution, which are then rapidly refined for each individual dataset, to ultimately approximate the parameters posterior across many individuals. The framework is easily trainable, as it uses mixtures of experts but without neural networks, leading to parsimonious yet expressive surrogate models of the likelihood and the posterior. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology using challenging stochastic models, such as mixed-effects stochastic differential equations emerging in systems biology-driven problems. However, the approach is broadly applicable and can accommodate both stochastic and deterministic models. We show that our approach can seamlessly handle inference for many parameters. Additionally, we applied our method to a real-data case study of mRNA transfection. When compared to exact pseudomarginal Bayesian inference, our approach proved to be both fast and competitive in terms of statistical accuracy.

Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in both parameters and models by computing full posterior distributions and model evidence (Gelman et al., 2013). However, Bayesian inference is often analytically intractable, requiring the use of approximate methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC; Brooks, 2011) or variational inference (VI; Blei et al., 2017). These methods typically necessitate repeated evaluations of the target density, and many require differentiability of the model (Neal, 2011; Kucukelbir et al., 2017). When model evaluations are computationally expensive - for instance, involving extensive numerical methods - these requirements make standard Bayesian approaches impractical. Due to these computational demands, practitioners often resort to simpler alternatives such as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation or maximum likelihood estimation (MLE); 1 see for example Wilson and Collins (2019); Ma et al. (2023). While these point estimates can provide useful insights, they fail to capture parameter uncertainty, potentially leading to overconfident or biased conclusions (Gelman et al., 2013). This limitation highlights the need for efficient posterior approximation methods that avoid the computational costs of standard inference techniques.1.

Inference and estimation are fundamental aspects of statistics, system identification and machine learning. For most inference problems, prior knowledge is available on the system to be modeled, and Bayesian analysis is a natural framework to impose such prior information in the form of a prior distribution. However, in many situations, coming out with a fully specified prior distribution is not easy, as prior knowledge might be too vague, so practitioners prefer to use a prior distribution that is as `ignorant' or `uninformative' as possible, in the sense of not imposing subjective beliefs, while still supporting reliable statistical analysis. Jeffreys prior is an appealing uninformative prior because it offers two important benefits: (i) it is invariant under any re-parameterization of the model, (ii) it encodes the intrinsic geometric structure of the parameter space through the Fisher information matrix, which in turn enhances the diversity of parameter samples. Despite these benefits, drawing samples from Jeffreys prior is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a general sampling scheme using the Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm that enables sampling of parameter values from Jeffreys prior, and provide numerical illustrations of our approach through several examples.