Manual scoring of the Action Research Arm Test (ARAT) for upper extremity assessment in stroke rehabilitation is time-intensive and variable. We propose an automated ARAT scoring system integrating multimodal video analysis with SlowFast, I3D, and Transformer-based models using OpenPose keypoints and object locations. Our approach employs multi-view data (ipsilateral, contralateral, and top perspectives), applying early and late fusion to combine features across views and models. Hierarchical Bayesian Models (HBMs) infer movement quality components, enhancing interpretability. A clinician dashboard displays task scores, execution times, and quality assessments. We conducted a study with five clinicians who reviewed 500 video ratings generated by our system, providing feedback on its accuracy and usability. Evaluated on a stroke rehabilitation dataset, our framework achieves 89.0% validation accuracy with late fusion, with HBMs aligning closely with manual assessments. This work advances automated rehabilitation by offering a scalable, interpretable solution with clinical validation.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

--Lane changing is a complex decision-making problem for Connected and Autonomous V ehicles (CA Vs) as it requires balancing traffic efficiency with safety. Although traffic efficiency can be improved by using vehicular communication for training lane change controllers using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), ensuring safety is difficult. T o address this issue, we propose a decentralised Hybrid Safety Shield (HSS) that combines optimisation and a rule-based approach to guarantee safety. Our method applies control barrier functions to constrain longitudinal and lateral control inputs of a CA V to ensure safe manoeuvres. Additionally, we present an architecture to integrate HSS with MARL, called MARL-HSS, to improve traffic efficiency while ensuring safety. We evaluate MARL-HSS using a gym-like environment that simulates an on-ramp merging scenario with two levels of traffic densities, such as light and moderate densities. The results show that HSS provides a safety guarantee by strictly enforcing a dynamic safety constraint defined on a time headway, even in moderate traffic density that offers challenging lane change scenarios. Moreover, the proposed method learns stable policies compared to the baseline, a state-of-the-art MARL lane change controller without a safety shield. Further policy evaluation shows that our method achieves a balance between safety and traffic efficiency with zero crashes and comparable average speeds in light and moderate traffic densities. I NTRODUCTION Autonomous V ehicles (A Vs) were expected to be commercially available by 2020, but recent reports suggest that wider adoption of A Vs can only be expected after 2030 or beyond due to societal, regulatory, and technical challenges [1]. Complex technical problems, such as localisation, mapping, perception, route planning, and motion control, are yet to be solved to enable commercial A V deployments [2].

Large language models(LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance on many natural language processing(NLP) tasks and have been employed in phishing email detection research. However, in current studies, well-performing LLMs typically contain billions or even tens of billions of parameters, requiring enormous computational resources. To reduce computational costs, we investigated the effectiveness of small-parameter LLMs for phishing email detection. These LLMs have around 3 billion parameters and can run on consumer-grade GPUs. However, small LLMs often perform poorly in phishing email detection task. To address these issues, we designed a set of methods including Prompt Engineering, Explanation Augmented Fine-tuning, and Model Ensemble to improve phishing email detection capabilities of small LLMs. We validated the effectiveness of our approach through experiments, significantly improving both accuracy and F1 score on the SpamAssassin and CEAS\_08 datasets. Furthermore, the fine-tuned models demonstrated strong transferability, achieving robust performance across multiple unseen phishing datasets, outperforming traditional baselines and approaching standard-sized LLMs.

Bootstrap is a common tool for quantifying uncertainty in data analysis. However, besides additional computational costs in the application of the bootstrap on massive data, a challenging problem in bootstrap based inference under Differential Privacy consists in the fact that it requires repeated access to the data. As a consequence, bootstrap based differentially private inference requires a significant increase of the privacy budget, which on the other hand comes with a substantial loss in statistical accuracy. A potential solution to reconcile the conflicting goals of statistical accuracy and privacy is to analyze the data under parametric model assumptions and in the last decade, several parametric bootstrap methods for inference under privacy have been investigated. However, uncertainty quantification by parametric bootstrap is only valid if the the quantities of interest can be identified as the parameters of a statistical model and the imposed model assumptions are (at least approximately) satisfied. An alternative to parametric methods is the empirical bootstrap that is a widely used tool for non-parametric inference and well studied in the non-private regime. However, under privacy, less insight is available. In this paper, we propose a private empirical $m$ out of $n$ bootstrap and validate its consistency and privacy guarantees under Gaussian Differential Privacy. Compared to the the private $n$ out of $n$ bootstrap, our approach has several advantages. First, it comes with less computational costs, in particular for massive data. Second, the proposed procedure needs less additional noise in the bootstrap iterations, which leads to an improved statistical accuracy while asymptotically guaranteeing the same level of privacy. Third, we demonstrate much better finite sample properties compared to the currently available procedures.

Many learning problems involve multiple patterns and varying degrees of uncertainty dependent on the covariates. Advances in Deep Learning (DL) have addressed these issues by learning highly nonlinear input-output dependencies. However, model interpretability and Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) have often straggled behind. In this context, we introduce the Competitive/Collaborative Fusion of Experts (CoCoAFusE), a novel, Bayesian Covariates-Dependent Modeling technique. CoCoAFusE builds on the very philosophy behind Mixtures of Experts (MoEs), blending predictions from several simple sub-models (or "experts") to achieve high levels of expressiveness while retaining a substantial degree of local interpretability. Our formulation extends that of a classical Mixture of Experts by contemplating the fusion of the experts' distributions in addition to their more usual mixing (i.e., superimposition). Through this additional feature, CoCoAFusE better accommodates different scenarios for the intermediate behavior between generating mechanisms, resulting in tighter credible bounds on the response variable. Indeed, only resorting to mixing, as in classical MoEs, may lead to multimodality artifacts, especially over smooth transitions. Instead, CoCoAFusE can avoid these artifacts even under the same structure and priors for the experts, leading to greater expressiveness and flexibility in modeling. This new approach is showcased extensively on a suite of motivating numerical examples and a collection of real-data ones, demonstrating its efficacy in tackling complex regression problems where uncertainty is a key quantity of interest.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful framework for generative modeling, with guidance techniques playing a crucial role in enhancing sample quality. Despite their empirical success, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of the guidance effect remains limited. Existing studies only focus on case studies, where the distribution conditioned on each class is either isotropic Gaussian or supported on a one-dimensional interval with some extra conditions. How to analyze the guidance effect beyond these case studies remains an open question. Towards closing this gap, we make an attempt to analyze diffusion guidance under general data distributions. Rather than demonstrating uniform sample quality improvement, which does not hold in some distributions, we prove that guidance can improve the whole sample quality, in the sense that the average reciprocal of the classifier probability decreases with the existence of guidance. This aligns with the motivation of introducing guidance.

Human behavioural data in psychophysics has been used to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of many cognitive processes, such as attention, sensorimotor integration, and perceptual decision making. Visual working memory has particularly benefited from this approach: analyses of VWM errors have proven crucial for understanding VWM capacity and coding schemes, in turn constraining neural models of both. One poorly understood class of VWM errors are swap errors, whereby participants recall an uncued item from memory. Swap errors could arise from erroneous memory encoding, noisy storage, or errors at retrieval time - previous research has mostly implicated the latter two. However, these studies made strong a priori assumptions on the detailed mechanisms and/or parametric form of errors contributed by these sources. Here, we pursue a data-driven approach instead, introducing a Bayesian non-parametric mixture model of swap errors (BNS) which provides a flexible descriptive model of swapping behaviour, such that swaps are allowed to depend on both the probed and reported features of every stimulus item. We fit BNS to the trial-by-trial behaviour of human participants and show that it recapitulates the strong dependence of swaps on cue similarity in multiple datasets. Critically, BNS reveals that this dependence coexists with a non-monotonic modulation in the report feature dimension for a random dot motion direction-cued, location-reported dataset. The form of the modulation inferred by BNS opens new questions about the importance of memory encoding in causing swap errors in VWM, a distinct source to the previously suggested binding and cueing errors. Our analyses, combining qualitative comparisons of the highly interpretable BNS parameter structure with rigorous quantitative model comparison and recovery methods, show that previous interpretations of swap errors may have been incomplete.

Howard's Policy Iteration (HPI) is a classic algorithm for solving Markov Decision Problems (MDPs). HPI uses a "greedy" switching rule to update from any non-optimal policy to a dominating one, iterating until an optimal policy is found. Despite its introduction over 60 years ago, the best-known upper bounds on HPI's running time remain exponential in the number of states -- indeed even on the restricted class of MDPs with only deterministic transitions (DMDPs). Meanwhile, the tightest lower bound for HPI for MDPs with a constant number of actions per state is only linear. In this paper, we report a significant improvement: a subexponential upper bound for HPI on DMDPs, which is parameterised by the bit-size of the rewards, while independent of the discount factor. The same upper bound also applies to DMDPs with only two possible rewards (which may be of arbitrary size).

This paper addresses the challenge of offline policy learning in reinforcement learning with continuous action spaces when unmeasured confounders are present. While most existing research focuses on policy evaluation within partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) and assumes discrete action spaces, we advance this field by establishing a novel identification result to enable the nonparametric estimation of policy value for a given target policy under an infinite-horizon framework. Leveraging this identification, we develop a minimax estimator and introduce a policy-gradient-based algorithm to identify the in-class optimal policy that maximizes the estimated policy value. Furthermore, we provide theoretical results regarding the consistency, finite-sample error bound, and regret bound of the resulting optimal policy. Extensive simulations and a real-world application using the German Family Panel data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology.