--Stochastic differential equations such as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process have long been used to model real-world probablistic events such as stock prices and temperature fluctuations. While statistical methods such as Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), Kalman Filtering, Inverse V ariable Method, and more have historically been used to estimate the parameters of stochastic differential equations, the recent explosion of deep learning technology suggests that models such as a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) could produce more precise estimators. We present a series of experiments that compare the estimation accuracy and computational expensiveness of a statistical method (MLE) with a deep learning model (RNN) for the parameters of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. I NTRODUCTION In section I, we will define the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) stochastic process and explore some of the theory behind its solution. After introducing useful properties of the OU process, we can define the likelihood function to optimize for MLE estimation and search algorithm(s) we will use to obtain estimates.

This paper provides a formulation of the particle flow particle filter from the perspective of variational inference. We show that the transient density used to derive the particle flow particle filter follows a time-scaled trajectory of the Fisher-Rao gradient flow in the space of probability densities. The Fisher-Rao gradient flow is obtained as a continuous-time algorithm for variational inference, minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a variational density and the true posterior density.

Estimating extreme quantiles is an important task in many applications, including financial risk management and climatology. More important than estimating the quantile itself is to insure zero coverage error, which implies the quantile estimate should, on average, reflect the desired probability of exceedance. In this research, we show that for unconditional distributions isomorphic to the exponential, a Bayesian quantile estimate results in zero coverage error. This compares to the traditional maximum likelihood method, where the coverage error can be significant under small sample sizes even though the quantile estimate is unbiased. More generally, we prove a sufficient condition for an unbiased quantile estimator to result in coverage error. Interestingly, our results hold by virtue of using a Jeffreys prior for the unknown parameters and is independent of the true prior. We also derive an expression for the distribution, and moments, of future exceedances which is vital for risk assessment. We extend our results to the conditional tail of distributions with asymptotic Paretian tails and, in particular, those in the Fréchet maximum domain of attraction. We illustrate our results using simulations for a variety of light and heavy-tailed distributions.

This lecture note is intended to prepare early-year master's and PhD students in data science or a related discipline with foundational ideas in machine learning. It starts with basic ideas in modern machine learning with classification as a main target task. These basic ideas include loss formulation, backpropagation, stochastic gradient descent, generalization, model selection as well as fundamental blocks of artificial neural networks. Based on these basic ideas, the lecture note explores in depth the probablistic approach to unsupervised learning, covering directed latent variable models, product of experts, generative adversarial networks and autoregressive models. Finally, the note ends by covering a diverse set of further topics, such as reinforcement learning, ensemble methods and meta-learning. After reading this lecture note, a student should be ready to embark on studying and researching more advanced topics in machine learning and more broadly artificial intelligence.

When the likelihood is analytically unavailable and computationally intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has emerged as a widely used methodology for approximate posterior inference; however, it suffers from severe computational inefficiency in high-dimensional settings or under diffuse priors. To overcome these limitations, we propose Adaptive Bayesian Inference (ABI), a framework that bypasses traditional data-space discrepancies and instead compares distributions directly in posterior space through nonparametric distribution matching. By leveraging a novel Marginally-augmented Sliced Wasserstein (MSW) distance on posterior measures and exploiting its quantile representation, ABI transforms the challenging problem of measuring divergence between posterior distributions into a tractable sequence of one-dimensional conditional quantile regression tasks. Moreover, we introduce a new adaptive rejection sampling scheme that iteratively refines the posterior approximation by updating the proposal distribution via generative density estimation. Theoretically, we establish parametric convergence rates for the trimmed MSW distance and prove that the ABI posterior converges to the true posterior as the tolerance threshold vanishes. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that ABI significantly outperforms data-based Wasserstein ABC, summary-based ABC, and state-of-the-art likelihood-free simulators, especially in high-dimensional or dependent observation regimes.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have emerged as a powerful methodology with significant practical successes in fields such as computer vision and natural language processing. Recent works have demonstrated that sparsely connected DNNs with carefully designed architectures can achieve minimax estimation rates under classical smoothness assumptions. However, subsequent studies revealed that simple fully connected DNNs can achieve comparable convergence rates, challenging the necessity of sparsity. Theoretical advances in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have been more fragmented. Much of those work has concentrated on sparse networks, leaving the theoretical properties of fully connected BNNs underexplored. In this paper, we address this gap by investigating fully connected Bayesian DNNs with Gaussian prior using PAC-Bayes bounds. We establish upper bounds on the prediction risk for a probabilistic deep neural network method, showing that these bounds match (up to logarithmic factors) the minimax-optimal rates in Besov space, for both nonparametric regression and binary classification with logistic loss. Importantly, our results hold for a broad class of practical activation functions that are Lipschitz continuous.

To cluster data is to separate samples into distinctive groups that should ideally have some cohesive properties. Today, numerous clustering algorithms exist, and their differences lie essentially in what can be perceived as ``cohesive properties''. Therefore, hypotheses on the nature of clusters must be set: they can be either generative or discriminative. As the last decade witnessed the impressive growth of deep clustering methods that involve neural networks to handle high-dimensional data often in a discriminative manner; we concentrate mainly on the discriminative hypotheses. In this paper, our aim is to provide an accessible historical perspective on the evolution of discriminative clustering methods and notably how the nature of assumptions of the discriminative models changed over time: from decision boundaries to invariance critics. We notably highlight how mutual information has been a historical cornerstone of the progress of (deep) discriminative clustering methods. We also show some known limitations of mutual information and how discriminative clustering methods tried to circumvent those. We then discuss the challenges that discriminative clustering faces with respect to the selection of the number of clusters. Finally, we showcase these techniques using the dedicated Python package, GemClus, that we have developed for discriminative clustering.

Previous research has shown the benefit Bayesian methods can bring to certain problems within deep learning Gal et al. (2017). However, computing the exact posterior distributions of BNNs is a difficult task as traditional methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Hastings (1970) are computationally poorly suited to exploring high dimensional spaces and dealing with large amounts of data. Parametric methods such as variational inference are better suited to these difficulties, but only give an approximation to the posterior distribution. These spaces have been found to be highly complex Izmailov et al. (2021a) and therefore variational methods often give a poor approximation of the posterior. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers Doucet et al. (2001) are an alternative to MCMC methods which also provide an empirical estimate of the posterior distribution. SMC samplers are instantly parallelisable Varsi et al. (2021b) and therefore can take advantage of the GPU resources commonly used in machine learning to speed up the training process. MCMC methods often require a warm-up period to adapt the hyperparameters, after which the chains can be parallelised. However, the hyperparameters must remain fixed after this warm-up period to obey stationarity. This means that SMC samplers can be more flexible than 1 arXiv:2505.03797v1

Multi-step manipulation tasks where robots interact with their environment and must apply process forces based on the perceived situation remain challenging to learn and prone to execution errors. Accurately simulating these tasks is also difficult. Hence, it is crucial for robust task performance to learn how to coordinate end-effector pose and applied force, monitor execution, and react to deviations. To address these challenges, we propose a learning approach that directly infers both low- and high-level task representations from user demonstrations on the real system. We developed an unsupervised task segmentation algorithm that combines intention recognition and feature clustering to infer the skills of a task. We leverage the inferred characteristic features of each skill in a novel unsupervised anomaly detection approach to identify deviations from the intended task execution. Together, these components form a comprehensive framework capable of incrementally learning task decisions and new behaviors as new situations arise. Compared to state-of-the-art learning techniques, our approach significantly reduces the required amount of training data and computational complexity while efficiently learning complex in-contact behaviors and recovery strategies. Our proposed task segmentation and anomaly detection approaches outperform state-of-the-art methods on force-based tasks evaluated on two different robotic systems.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) generalize classical MDPs that consider uncertainties in transition probabilities by defining a set of possible transition functions. An objective is a set of runs (or infinite trajectories) of the RMDP, and the value for an objective is the maximal probability that the agent can guarantee against the adversarial environment. We consider (a) reachability objectives, where given a target set of states, the goal is to eventually arrive at one of them; and (b) parity objectives, which are a canonical representation for $ω$-regular objectives. The qualitative analysis problem asks whether the objective can be ensured with probability 1. In this work, we study the qualitative problem for reachability and parity objectives on RMDPs without making any assumption over the structures of the RMDPs, e.g., unichain or aperiodic. Our contributions are twofold. We first present efficient algorithms with oracle access to uncertainty sets that solve qualitative problems of reachability and parity objectives. We then report experimental results demonstrating the effectiveness of our oracle-based approach on classical RMDP examples from the literature scaling up to thousands of states.