Many real-world tasks, from associative memory to symbolic reasoning, demand discrete, structured representations that standard continuous latent models struggle to express naturally. We introduce the Gaussian-Multinoulli Restricted Boltzmann Machine (GM-RBM), a generative energy-based model that extends the Gaussian-Bernoulli RBM (GB-RBM) by replacing binary hidden units with $q$-state Potts variables. This modification enables a combinatorially richer latent space and supports learning over multivalued, interpretable latent concepts. We formally derive GM-RBM's energy function, learning dynamics, and conditional distributions, showing that it preserves tractable inference and training through contrastive divergence. Empirically, we demonstrate that GM-RBMs model complex multimodal distributions more effectively than binary RBMs, outperforming them on tasks involving analogical recall and structured memory. Our results highlight GM-RBMs as a scalable framework for discrete latent inference with enhanced expressiveness and interoperability.

Interactive Fiction games (IF games) are where players interact through natural language commands. While recent advances in Artificial Intelligence agents have reignited interest in IF games as a domain for studying decision-making, existing approaches prioritize task-specific performance metrics over human-like comprehension of narrative context and gameplay logic. This work presents a cognitively inspired framework that guides Large Language Models (LLMs) to learn and play IF games systematically. Our proposed **L**earning to **P**lay **L**ike **H**umans (LPLH) framework integrates three key components: (1) structured map building to capture spatial and narrative relationships, (2) action learning to identify context-appropriate commands, and (3) feedback-driven experience analysis to refine decision-making over time. By aligning LLMs-based agents' behavior with narrative intent and commonsense constraints, LPLH moves beyond purely exploratory strategies to deliver more interpretable, human-like performance. Crucially, this approach draws on cognitive science principles to more closely simulate how human players read, interpret, and respond within narrative worlds. As a result, LPLH reframes the IF games challenge as a learning problem for LLMs-based agents, offering a new path toward robust, context-aware gameplay in complex text-based environments.

Transporting causal information learned from experiments in one population to another is a critical challenge in clinical research and decision-making. Causal transportability uses causal graphs to model differences between the source and target populations and identifies conditions under which causal effects learned from experiments can be reused in a different population. Similarly, causal identifiability identifies conditions under which causal effects can be estimated from observational data. However, these approaches rely on knowing the causal graph, which is often unavailable in real-world settings. In this work, we propose a Bayesian method for assessing whether Z-specific (conditional) causal effects are both identifiable and transportable, without knowing the causal graph. Our method combines experimental data from the source population with observational data from the target population to compute the probability that a causal effect is both identifiable from observational data and transportable. When this holds, we leverage both observational data from the target domain and experimental data from the source domain to obtain an unbiased, efficient estimator of the causal effect in the target population. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our method correctly identifies transportable causal effects and improves causal effect estimation.

Completely random measures (CRMs) are fundamental to Bayesian nonparametric models, with applications in clustering, feature allocation, and network analysis. A key quantity of interest is the Laplace exponent, whose asymptotic behavior determines how the random structures scale. When the Laplace exponent grows nearly linearly - known as rapid variation - the induced models exhibit approximately linear growth in the number of clusters, features, or edges with sample size or network nodes. This regime is especially relevant for modeling sparse networks, yet existing CRM constructions lack tractability under rapid variation. We address this by introducing a new class of CRMs with index of variation $α\in(0,1]$, defined as mixtures of stable or generalized gamma processes. These models offer interpretable parameters, include well-known CRMs as limiting cases, and retain analytical tractability through a tractable Laplace exponent and simple size-biased representation. We analyze the asymptotic properties of this CRM class and apply it to the Caron-Fox framework for sparse graphs. The resulting models produce networks with near-linear edge growth, aligning with empirical evidence from large-scale networks. Additionally, we present efficient algorithms for simulation and posterior inference, demonstrating practical advantages through experiments on real-world sparse network datasets.

We introduce a novel framework for differentially private (DP) statistical estimation via data truncation, addressing a key challenge in DP estimation when the data support is unbounded. Traditional approaches rely on problem-specific sensitivity analysis, limiting their applicability. By leveraging techniques from truncated statistics, we develop computationally efficient DP estimators for exponential family distributions, including Gaussian mean and covariance estimation, achieving near-optimal sample complexity. Previous works on exponential families only consider bounded or one-dimensional families. Our approach mitigates sensitivity through truncation while carefully correcting for the introduced bias using maximum likelihood estimation and DP stochastic gradient descent. Along the way, we establish improved uniform convergence guarantees for the log-likelihood function of exponential families, which may be of independent interest. Our results provide a general blueprint for DP algorithm design via truncated statistics.

This paper extends Bayesian probability theory by developing a multidimensional space of events (MDSE) theory that accounts for mutual influences between events and hypotheses sets. While traditional Bayesian approaches assume conditional independence between certain variables, real-world systems often exhibit complex interdependencies that limit classical model applicability. Building on established probabilistic foundations, our approach introduces a mathematical formalism for modeling these complex relationships. We developed the MDSE theory through rigorous mathematical derivation and validated it using three complementary methodologies: analytical proofs, computational simulations, and case studies drawn from diverse domains. Results demonstrate that MDSE successfully models complex dependencies with 15-20% improved prediction accuracy compared to standard Bayesian methods when applied to datasets with high interdimensionality. This theory particularly excels in scenarios with over 50 interrelated variables, where traditional methods show exponential computational complexity growth while MDSE maintains polynomial scaling. Our findings indicate that MDSE provides a viable mathematical foundation for extending Bayesian reasoning to complex systems while maintaining computational tractability. This approach offers practical applications in engineering challenges including risk assessment, resource optimization, and forecasting problems where multiple interdependent factors must be simultaneously considered.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) proposals into SMC, enabling efficient mini-batch based sampling. Our resulting SMCSGHMC algorithm outperforms standard stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and deep ensembles across image classification, out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, and transfer learning tasks. We further show that SMCSGHMC mitigates overfitting and improves calibration, providing a flexible, scalable pathway for converting pretrained neural networks into well-calibrated Bayesian models.

Gaussian Process based Bayesian Optimization is a widely applied algorithm to learn and optimize under uncertainty, well-known for its sample efficiency. However, recently -- and more frequently -- research studies have empirically demonstrated that the Gaussian Process fitting procedure at its core could be its most relevant weakness. Fitting a Gaussian Process means tuning its kernel's hyperparameters to a set of observations, but the common Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique, usually appropriate for learning tasks, has shown different criticalities in Bayesian Optimization, making theoretical analysis of this algorithm an open challenge. Exploiting the analogy between Gaussian Processes and Gaussian Distributions, we present a new approach which uses a prefixed set of hyperparameters values to fit as many Gaussian Processes and then combines them into a unique model as a Wasserstein Barycenter of Gaussian Processes. We considered both "easy" test problems and others known to undermine the \textit{vanilla} Bayesian Optimization algorithm. The new method, namely Wasserstein Barycenter Gausssian Process based Bayesian Optimization (WBGP-BO), resulted promising and able to converge to the optimum, contrary to vanilla Bayesian Optimization, also on the most "tricky" test problems.

This paper introduces Attribution Projection Calculus (AP-Calculus), a novel mathematical framework for determining causal relationships in structured Bayesian networks. We investigate a specific network architecture with source nodes connected to destination nodes through intermediate nodes, where each input maps to a single label with maximum marginal probability. We prove that for each label, exactly one intermediate node acts as a deconfounder while others serve as confounders, enabling optimal attribution of features to their corresponding labels. The framework formalizes the dual nature of intermediate nodes as both confounders and deconfounders depending on the context, and establishes separation functions that maximize distinctions between intermediate representations. We demonstrate that the proposed network architecture is optimal for causal inference compared to alternative structures, including those based on Pearl's causal framework. AP-Calculus provides a comprehensive mathematical foundation for analyzing feature-label attributions, managing spurious correlations, quantifying information gain, ensuring fairness, and evaluating uncertainty in prediction models, including large language models. Theoretical verification shows that AP-Calculus not only extends but can also subsume traditional do-calculus for many practical applications, offering a more direct approach to causal inference in supervised learning contexts.

An AI agent might surprisingly find she has reached an unknown state which she has never been aware of -- an unknown unknown. We mathematically ground this scenario in reinforcement learning: an agent, after taking an action calculated from value functions $Q$ and $V$ defined on the {\it {aware domain}}, reaches a state out of the domain. To enable the agent to handle this scenario, we propose an {\it episodic Markov decision {process} with growing awareness} (EMDP-GA) model, taking a new {\it noninformative value expansion} (NIVE) approach to expand value functions to newly aware areas: when an agent arrives at an unknown unknown, value functions $Q$ and $V$ whereon are initialised by noninformative beliefs -- the averaged values on the aware domain. This design is out of respect for the complete absence of knowledge in the newly discovered state. The upper confidence bound momentum Q-learning is then adapted to the growing awareness for training the EMDP-GA model. We prove that (1) the regret of our approach is asymptotically consistent with the state of the art (SOTA) without exposure to unknown unknowns in an extremely uncertain environment, and (2) our computational complexity and space complexity are comparable with the SOTA -- these collectively suggest that though an unknown unknown is surprising, it will be asymptotically properly discovered with decent speed and an affordable cost.