We study square loss in a realizable time-series framework with martingale difference noise. Our main result is a fast rate excess risk bound which shows that whenever a trajectory hypercontractivity condition holds, the risk of the leastsquares estimator on dependent data matches the iid rate order-wise after a burn-in time. In comparison, many existing results in learning from dependent data have rates where the effective sample size is deflated by a factor of the mixing-time of the underlying process, even after the burn-in time. Furthermore, our results allow the covariate process to exhibit long range correlations which are substantially weaker than geometric ergodicity. We call this phenomenon learning with little mixing, and present several examples for when it occurs: bounded function classes for which the L2 and L2+ε norms are equivalent, ergodic finite state Markov chains, various parametric models, and a broad family of infinite dimensional ℓ2(N)ellipsoids. By instantiating our main result to system identification of nonlinear dynamics with generalized linear model transitions, we obtain a nearly minimax optimal excess risk bound after only a polynomial burn-in time.

Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity approximate inference via full-batch Hamiltonian Monte Carlo achieve poor generalization under covariate shift, even underperforming classical estimation. We explain this surprising result, showing how a Bayesian model average can in fact be problematic under covariate shift, particularly in cases where linear dependencies in the input features cause a lack of posterior contraction. We additionally show why the same issue does not affect many approximate inference procedures, or classical maximum a-posteriori (MAP) training. Finally, we propose novel priors that improve the robustness of BNNs to many sources of covariate shift.

Synchronizing decisions across multiple agents in realistic settings is problematic since it requires agents to wait for other agents to terminate and communicate about termination reliably. Ideally, agents should learn and execute asynchronously instead. Such asynchronous methods also allow temporally extended actions that can take different amounts of time based on the situation and action executed. Unfortunately, current policy gradient methods are not applicable in asynchronous settings, as they assume that agents synchronously reason about action selection at every time step. To allow asynchronous learning and decision-making, we formulate a set of asynchronous multi-agent actor-critic methods that allow agents to directly optimize asynchronous policies in three standard training paradigms: decentralized learning, centralized learning, and centralized training for decentralized execution. Empirical results (in simulation and hardware) in a variety of realistic domains demonstrate the superiority of our approaches in large multi-agent problems and validate the effectiveness of our algorithms for learning high-quality and asynchronous solutions.

This paper presents a problem in power networks that creates an exciting and yet challenging real-world scenario for application of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). The emerging trend of decarbonisation is placing excessive stress on power distribution networks. Active voltage control is seen as a promising solution to relieve power congestion and improve voltage quality without extra hardware investment, taking advantage of the controllable apparatuses in the network, such as roof-top photovoltaics (PVs) and static var compensators (SVCs). These controllable apparatuses appear in a vast number and are distributed in a wide geographic area, making MARL a natural candidate. This paper formulates the active voltage control problem in the framework of Dec-POMDP and establishes an open-source environment. It aims to bridge the gap between the power community and the MARL community and be a drive force towards real-world applications of MARL algorithms. Finally, we analyse the special characteristics of the active voltage control problems that cause challenges (e.g.