In variety testing, multi-environment trials (MET) are essential for evaluating the genotypic performance of crop plants. A persistent challenge in the statistical analysis of MET data is the estimation of variance components, which are often still inaccurately estimated or shrunk to exactly zero when using residual (restricted) maximum likelihood (REML) approaches. At the same time, institutions conducting MET typically possess extensive historical data that can, in principle, be leveraged to improve variance component estimation. However, these data are rarely incorporated sufficiently. The purpose of this paper is to address this gap by proposing a Bayesian framework that systematically integrates historical information to stabilize variance component estimation and better quantify uncertainty. Our Bayesian linear mixed model (BLMM) reformulation uses priors and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to maintain the variance components as positive, yielding more realistic distributional estimates. Furthermore, our model incorporates historical prior information by managing MET data in successive historical data windows. Variance component prior and posterior distributions are shown to be conjugate and belong to the inverse gamma and inverse Wishart families. While Bayesian methodology is increasingly being used for analyzing MET data, to the best of our knowledge, this study comprises one of the first serious attempts to objectively inform priors in the context of MET data. This refers to the proposed Bayesian updating approach. To demonstrate the framework, we consider an application where posterior variance component samples are plugged into an A-optimality experimental design criterion to determine the average optimal allocations of trials to agro-ecological zones in a sub-divided target population of environments (TPE).

In online clustering problems, there is often a large amount of uncertainty over possible cluster assignments that cannot be resolved until more data are observed. This difficulty is compounded when clusters follow complex distributions, as is the case with text data. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods give a natural way of representing and updating this uncertainty over time, but have prohibitive memory requirements for large-scale problems. We propose a novel SMC algorithm that decomposes clustering problems into approximately independent subproblems, allowing a more compact representation of the algorithm state. Our approach is motivated by the knowledge base construction problem, and we show that our method is able to accurately and efficiently solve clustering problems in this setting and others where traditional SMC struggles.

When considering a model selection or, more generally, an aggregation approach for adaptive statistical inference, it is often necessary to compute estimators over a wide range of model complexities including unnecessarily large models even when the true data-generating process is relatively simple, due to the lack of prior knowledge. This requirement can lead to substantial computational inefficiency. In this work, we propose a novel framework for efficient model aggregation called the early-stopped aggregation (ESA): instead of computing and aggregating estimators for all candidate models, we compute only a small number of simpler ones using an early-stopping criterion and aggregate only these for final inference. Our framework is versatile and applies to both Bayesian model selection, in particular, within the variational Bayes framework, and frequentist estimation, including a general penalized estimation setting. We investigate adaptive optimal property of the ESA approach across three learning paradigms. We first show that ESA achieves optimal adaptive contraction rates in the variational Bayes setting under mild conditions. We extend this result to variational empirical Bayes, where prior hyperparameters are chosen in a data-dependent manner. In addition, we apply the ESA approach to frequentist aggregation including both penalization-based and sample-splitting implementations, and establish corresponding theory. As we demonstrate, there is a clear unification between early-stopped Bayes and frequentist penalized aggregation, with a common "energy" functional comprising a data-fitting term and a complexity-control term that drives both procedures. We further present several applications and numerical studies that highlight the efficiency and strong performance of the proposed approach.

We derive a robust update rule for the online infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) for when the streaming data contains outliers and the model is misspecified. Leveraging recent advances in generalised Bayesian inference, we define robustness via the posterior influence function (PIF), and provide conditions under which the online iHMM has bounded PIF. Imposing robustness inevitably induces an adaptation lag for regime switching. Our method, which is called Batched Robust iHMM (BR-iHMM), balances adaptivity and robustness with two additional tunable parameters. Across limit order book data, hourly electricity demand, and a synthetic high-dimensional linear system, BR-iHMM reduces one-step-ahead forecasting error by up to 67% relative to competing online Bayesian methods. Together with theoretical guarantees of bounded PIF, our results highlight the practicality of our approach for both forecasting and interpretable online learning.

We study offline-online reinforcement learning in linear mixture Markov decision processes (MDPs) under environment shift. In the offline phase, data are collected by an unknown behavior policy and may come from a mismatched environment, while in the online phase the learner interacts with the target environment. We propose an algorithm that adaptively leverages offline data. When the offline data are informative, either due to sufficient coverage or small environment shift, the algorithm provably improves over purely online learning. When the offline data are uninformative, it safely ignores them and matches the online-only performance. We establish regret upper bounds that explicitly characterize when offline data are beneficial, together with nearly matching lower bounds. Numerical experiments further corroborate our theoretical findings.

We decompose the Kullback--Leibler generalization error (GE) -- the expected KL divergence from the data distribution to the trained model -- of unsupervised learning into three non-negative components: model error, data bias, and variance. The decomposition is exact for any e-flat model class and follows from two identities of information geometry: the generalized Pythagorean theorem and a dual e-mixture variance identity. As an analytically tractable demonstration, we apply the framework to $ε$-PCA, a regularized principal component analysis in which the empirical covariance is truncated at rank $N_K$ and discarded directions are pinned at a fixed noise floor $ε$. Although rank-constrained $ε$-PCA is not itself e-flat, it admits a technical reformulation with the same total GE on isotropic Gaussian data, under which each component of the decomposition takes closed form. The optimal rank emerges as the cutoff $λ_{\mathrm{cut}}^{*} = ε$ -- the model retains exactly those empirical eigenvalues exceeding the noise floor -- with the cutoff reflecting a marginal-rate balance between model-error gain and data-bias cost. A boundary comparison further yields a three-regime phase diagram -- retain-all, interior, and collapse -- separated by the lower Marchenko--Pastur edge and an analytically computable collapse threshold $ε_{*}(α)$, where $α$ is the dimension-to-sample-size ratio. All claims are verified numerically.

Accurately identifying patients with specific medical conditions is a key challenge when using clinical data from electronic health records. Our objective was to comprehensively assess when weakly-supervised prediction methods, which use silver-standard labels (proxy measures of the true outcome) rather than gold-standard true labels, perform well in rare-outcome settings like vaccine safety studies. We compared three methods (PheNorm, MAP, and sureLDA) that combine structured features and features derived from clinical text using natural language processing, through an extensive simulation study with data-generating mechanisms ranging from simple to complex, varying outcome rates, and varying degrees of informative silver labels. We also considered using predicted probabilities to design a chart review validation study. No single method dominated the other across all prediction performance metrics. Probability-guided sampling selected a cohort enriched for patients with more mentions of important concepts in chart notes. SureLDA, the most complex of the three algorithms we considered, often performed well in simulations. Performance depended greatly on selected tuning parameters. Care should be taken when using weakly-supervised prediction methods in rare-outcome settings, particularly if the probabilities will be used in downstream analysis, but these methods can work well when silver labels are strong predictors of true outcomes.

We study the problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models, and propose an approach based on sample-weighted empirical risk minimization. Our method, Weighted ERM, encodes priors on the change points via weights assigned to each sample, to obtain weighted versions of standard estimators such as M-estimators and maximum-likelihood estimators. Under mild assumptions on the data, we obtain a precise asymptotic characterization of the performance of our method for general Gaussian designs, in the high-dimensional limit where the number of samples and covariate dimension grow proportionally. We show how this characterization can be used to efficiently construct a posterior distribution over change points. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real data illustrate the efficacy of Weighted ERM compared to existing approaches, demonstrating that sample weights constructed with weakly informative priors can yield accurate change point estimators. Our method is implemented as an open-source package, weightederm, available in Python and R.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is moving increasingly beyond prediction to support decisions in complex, uncertain, and dynamic environments. This shift creates a natural intersection with operations research and management sciences (OR/MS), which have long offered conceptual and methodological foundations for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. At the same time, recent advances in deep learning, including feedforward neural networks, LSTMs, transformers, and deep reinforcement learning, have expanded the scope of data-driven modeling and opened new possibilities for large-scale decision systems. This tutorial presents an OR/MS-centered perspective on deep learning for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Its central premise is that deep learning is valuable not as a replacement for optimization, but as a complement to it. Deep learning brings adaptability and scalable approximation, whereas OR/MS provides the structural rigor needed to represent constraints, recourse, and uncertainty. The tutorial reviews key decision-making foundations, connects them to the major neural architectures in modern AI, and discusses leading approaches to integrating learning and optimization. It also highlights emerging impact in domains such as supply chains, healthcare and epidemic response, agriculture, energy, and autonomous operations. More broadly, it frames these developments as part of a wider transition from predictive AI toward decision-capable AI and highlights the role of OR/MS in shaping the next generation of integrated learning--optimization systems.

While the manifold hypothesis is widely adopted in modern machine learning, complex data is often better modeled as stratified spaces -- unions of manifolds (strata) of varying dimensions. Stratified learning is challenging due to varying dimensionality, intersection singularities, and lack of efficient models in learning the underlying distributions. We provide a deep generative approach to stratified learning by developing two generative frameworks for learning distributions on stratified spaces. The first is a sieve maximum likelihood approach realized via a dimension-aware mixture of variational autoencoders. The second is a diffusion-based framework that explores the score field structure of a mixture. We establish the convergence rates for learning both the ambient and intrinsic distributions, which are shown to be dependent on the intrinsic dimensions and smoothness of the underlying strata. Utilizing the geometry of the score field, we also establish consistency for estimating the intrinsic dimension of each stratum and propose an algorithm that consistently estimates both the number of strata and their dimensions. Theoretical results for both frameworks provide fundamental insights into the interplay of the underlying geometry, the ambient noise level, and deep generative models. Extensive simulations and real dataset applications, such as molecular dynamics, demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods.