Asymmetric, non-Gaussian probability distributions are often observed in the analysis of natural and engineering datasets. The lognormal distribution is a standard model for data with skewed frequency histograms and fat tails. However, the lognormal law severely restricts the asymptotic dependence of the probability density and the hazard function for high values. Herein we present a family of three-parameter non-Gaussian probability density functions that are based on generalized kappa-exponential and kappa-logarithm functions and investigate its mathematical properties. These kappa-lognormal densities represent continuous deformations of the lognormal with lighter right tails, controlled by the parameter kappa. In addition, bimodal distributions are obtained for certain parameter combinations. We derive closed-form analytic expressions for the main statistical functions of the kappa-lognormal distribution. For the moments, we derive bounds that are based on hypergeometric functions as well as series expansions. Explicit expressions for the gradient and Hessian of the negative log-likelihood are obtained to facilitate numerical maximum-likelihood estimates of the kappa-lognormal parameters from data. We also formulate a joint probability density function for kappa-lognormal stochastic processes by applying Jacobi's multivariate theorem to a latent Gaussian process. Estimation of the kappa-lognormal distribution based on synthetic and real data is explored. Furthermore, we investigate applications of kappa-lognormal processes with different covariance kernels in time series forecasting and spatial interpolation using warped Gaussian process regression. Our results are of practical interest for modeling skewed distributions in various scientific and engineering fields.

In electromyogram (EMG)-based motion recognition, a subject-specific classifier is typically trained with sufficient labeled data. However, this process demands extensive data collection over extended periods, burdening the subject. To address this, utilizing information from pre-training on multiple subjects for the training of the target subject could be beneficial. This paper proposes an inter-subject variance transfer learning method based on a Bayesian approach. This method is founded on the simple hypothesis that while the means of EMG features vary greatly across subjects, their variances may exhibit similar patterns. Our approach transfers variance information, acquired through pre-training on multiple source subjects, to a target subject within a Bayesian updating framework, thereby allowing accurate classification using limited target calibration data. A coefficient was also introduced to adjust the amount of information transferred for efficient transfer learning. Experimental evaluations using two EMG datasets demonstrated the effectiveness of our variance transfer strategy and its superiority compared to existing methods.

Simulated tempering is a widely used strategy for sampling from multimodal distributions. In this paper, we consider simulated tempering combined with an arbitrary local Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler and present a new decomposition theorem that provides a lower bound on the restricted spectral gap of the algorithm for sampling from mixture distributions. By working with the restricted spectral gap, the applicability of our results is extended to broader settings such as when the usual spectral gap is difficult to bound or becomes degenerate. We demonstrate the application of our theoretical results by analyzing simulated tempering combined with random walk Metropolis--Hastings for sampling from mixtures of Gaussian distributions. We show that in fixed-dimensional settings, the algorithm's complexity scales polynomially with the separation between modes and logarithmically with $1/\varepsilon$, where $\varepsilon$ is the target accuracy in total variation distance.

Capturing nonlinear relationships without sacrificing interpretability remains a persistent challenge in regression modeling. We introduce SplitWise, a novel framework that enhances stepwise regression. It adaptively transforms numeric predictors into threshold-based binary features using shallow decision trees, but only when such transformations improve model fit, as assessed by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). This approach preserves the transparency of linear models while flexibly capturing nonlinear effects. Implemented as a user-friendly R package, SplitWise is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that it consistently produces more parsimonious and generalizable models than traditional stepwise and penalized regression techniques.

In statistical learning, models are classified as regular or singular depending on whether the mapping from parameters to probability distributions is injective. Most models with hierarchical structures or latent variables are singular, for which conventional criteria such as the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion are inapplicable due to the breakdown of normal approximations for the likelihood and posterior. To address this, the Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC) and the Widely Applicable Bayesian Information Criterion (WBIC) have been proposed. Since WAIC and WBIC are computed using posterior distributions at different temperature settings, separate posterior sampling is generally required. In this paper, we theoretically derive an asymptotic equation that links WAIC and WBIC, despite their dependence on different posteriors. This equation yields an asymptotically unbiased expression of WAIC in terms of the posterior distribution used for WBIC. The result clarifies the structural relationship between these criteria within the framework of singular learning theory, and deepens understanding of their asymptotic behavior. This theoretical contribution provides a foundation for future developments in the computational efficiency of model selection in singular models.

We study the policy testing problem in discounted Markov decision processes (MDPs) under the fixed-confidence setting. The goal is to determine whether the value of a given policy exceeds a specified threshold while minimizing the number of observations. We begin by deriving an instance-specific lower bound that any algorithm must satisfy. This lower bound is characterized as the solution to an optimization problem with non-convex constraints. We propose a policy testing algorithm inspired by this optimization problem--a common approach in pure exploration problems such as best-arm identification, where asymptotically optimal algorithms often stem from such optimization-based characterizations. As for other pure exploration tasks in MDPs, however, the non-convex constraints in the lower-bound problem present significant challenges, raising doubts about whether statistically optimal and computationally tractable algorithms can be designed. To address this, we reformulate the lower-bound problem by interchanging the roles of the objective and the constraints, yielding an alternative problem with a non-convex objective but convex constraints. Strikingly, this reformulated problem admits an interpretation as a policy optimization task in a newly constructed reversed MDP. Leveraging recent advances in policy gradient methods, we efficiently solve this problem and use it to design a policy testing algorithm that is statistically optimal--matching the instance-specific lower bound on sample complexity--while remaining computationally tractable. We validate our approach with numerical experiments.

We revisit the classical problem of Bayesian ensembles and address the challenge of learning optimal combinations of Bayesian models in an online, continual learning setting. To this end, we reinterpret existing approaches such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and Bayesian stacking through a novel empirical Bayes lens, shedding new light on the limitations and pathologies of BMA. Further motivated by insights from online optimization, we propose Online Bayesian Stacking (OBS), a method that optimizes the log-score over predictive distributions to adaptively combine Bayesian models. A key contribution of our work is establishing a novel connection between OBS and portfolio selection, bridging Bayesian ensemble learning with a rich, well-studied theoretical framework that offers efficient algorithms and extensive regret analysis. We further clarify the relationship between OBS and online BMA, showing that they optimize related but distinct cost functions. Through theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation, we identify scenarios where OBS outperforms online BMA and provide principled guidance on when practitioners should prefer one approach over the other.

In this work, we contribute the first approach to solve infinite-horizon discounted general-utility Markov decision processes (GUMDPs) in the single-trial regime, i.e., when the agent's performance is evaluated based on a single trajectory. First, we provide some fundamental results regarding policy optimization in the single-trial regime, investigating which class of policies suffices for optimality, casting our problem as a particular MDP that is equivalent to our original problem, as well as studying the computational hardness of policy optimization in the single-trial regime. Second, we show how we can leverage online planning techniques, in particular a Monte-Carlo tree search algorithm, to solve GUMDPs in the single-trial regime. Third, we provide experimental results showcasing the superior performance of our approach in comparison to relevant baselines.

Knowing the uncertainty associated with the output of a deep neural network is of paramount importance in making trustworthy decisions, particularly in high-stakes fields like medical diagnosis and autonomous systems. Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) is a widely used method for uncertainty quantification, as it can be easily integrated into various deep architectures. However, conventional MCD often struggles with providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. To address this, we introduce innovative frameworks that enhances MCD by integrating different search solutions namely Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), Bayesian Optimization (BO), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as well as an uncertainty-aware loss function, thereby improving the reliability of uncertainty quantification. We conduct comprehensive experiments using different backbones, namely DenseNet121, ResNet50, and VGG16, on various datasets, including Cats vs. Dogs, Myocarditis, Wisconsin, and a synthetic dataset (Circles). Our proposed algorithm outperforms the MCD baseline by 2-3% on average in terms of both conventional accuracy and uncertainty accuracy while achieving significantly better calibration. These results highlight the potential of our approach to enhance the trustworthiness of deep learning models in safety-critical applications.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) in partially observable environments poses significant challenges due to the complexity of learning under uncertainty. While additional information, such as that available in simulations, can enhance training, effectively leveraging it remains an open problem. To address this, we introduce Guided Policy Optimization (GPO), a framework that co-trains a guider and a learner. The guider takes advantage of privileged information while ensuring alignment with the learner's policy that is primarily trained via imitation learning. We theoretically demonstrate that this learning scheme achieves optimality comparable to direct RL, thereby overcoming key limitations inherent in existing approaches. Empirical evaluations show strong performance of GPO across various tasks, including continuous control with partial observability and noise, and memory-based challenges, significantly outperforming existing methods.