Learning Graphical Models
OpenGSL: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Graph Structure Learning
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as the de facto standard for representation learning on graphs, owing to their ability to effectively integrate graph topology and node attributes. However, the inherent suboptimal nature of node connections, resulting from the complex and contingent formation process of graphs, presents significant challenges in modeling them effectively. To tackle this issue, Graph Structure Learning (GSL), a family of data-centric learning approaches, has garnered substantial attention in recent years. The core concept behind GSL is to jointly optimize the graph structure and the corresponding GNN models. Despite the proposal of numerous GSL methods, the progress in this field remains unclear due to inconsistent experimental protocols, including variations in datasets, data processing techniques, and splitting strategies.
Is Score Matching Suitable for Estimating Point Processes?
Score matching estimators for point processes have gained widespread attention in recent years because they do not require the calculation of intensity integrals, thereby effectively addressing the computational challenges in maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Some existing works have proposed score matching estimators for point processes. However, this work demonstrates that the incompleteness of the estimators proposed in those works renders them applicable only to specific problems, and they fail for more general point processes. To address this issue, this work introduces the weighted score matching estimator to point processes. Theoretically, we prove the consistency of the estimator we propose. Experimental results indicate that our estimator accurately estimates model parameters on synthetic data and yields results consistent with MLE on real data.
Inverse Optimal Control Adapted to the Noise Characteristics of the Human Sensorimotor System
Computational level explanations based on optimal feedback control with signal-dependent noise have been able to account for a vast array of phenomena in human sensorimotor behavior. However, commonly a cost function needs to be assumed for a task and the optimality of human behavior is evaluated by comparing observed and predicted trajectories. Here, we introduce inverse optimal control with signal-dependent noise, which allows inferring the cost function from observed behavior. To do so, we formalize the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process and distinguish between the agent's and the experimenter's inference problems. Specifically, we derive a probabilistic formulation of the evolution of states and belief states and an approximation to the propagation equation in the linear-quadratic Gaussian problem with signal-dependent noise.
Policy Optimization for Robust Average Reward MDPs
This paper studies first-order policy optimization for robust average cost Markov decision processes (MDPs). Specifically, we focus on ergodic Markov chains. For robust average cost MDPs, the goal is to optimize the worst-case average cost over an uncertainty set of transition kernels. We first develop a sub-gradient of the robust average cost. Based on the sub-gradient, a robust policy mirror descent approach is further proposed.
Recurrent Reinforcement Learning with Memoroids
Memory models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Transformers address Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) by mapping trajectories to latent Markov states. Neither model scales particularly well to long sequences, especially compared to an emerging class of memory models called Linear Recurrent Models. We discover that the recurrent update of these models resembles a monoid, leading us to reformulate existing models using a novel monoid-based framework that we call memoroids. We revisit the traditional approach to batching in recurrent reinforcement learning, highlighting theoretical and empirical deficiencies. We leverage memoroids to propose a batching method that improves sample efficiency, increases the return, and simplifies the implementation of recurrent loss functions in reinforcement learning.
Sequential Probability Assignment with Contexts: Minimax Regret, Contextual Shtarkov Sums, and Contextual Normalized Maximum Likelihood
We study the fundamental problem of sequential probability assignment, also known as online learning with logarithmic loss, with respect to an arbitrary, possibly nonparametric hypothesis class. Our goal is to obtain a complexity measure for the hypothesis class that characterizes the minimax regret and to determine a general, minimax optimal algorithm. Notably, the sequential \ell_{\infty} entropy, extensively studied in the literature (Rakhlin and Sridharan, 2015, Bilodeau et al., 2020, Wu et al., 2023), was shown to not characterize minimax regret in general. Inspired by the seminal work of Shtarkov (1987) and Rakhlin, Sridharan, and Tewari (2010), we introduce a novel complexity measure, the \emph{contextual Shtarkov sum}, corresponding to the Shtarkov sum after projection onto a multiary context tree, and show that the worst case log contextual Shtarkov sum equals the minimax regret. Using the contextual Shtarkov sum, we derive the minimax optimal strategy, dubbed \emph{contextual Normalized Maximum Likelihood} (cNML).
Rescuing neural spike train models from bad MLE
The standard approach to fitting an autoregressive spike train model is to maximize the likelihood for one-step prediction. This maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) often leads to models that perform poorly when generating samples recursively for more than one time step. Moreover, the generated spike trains can fail to capture important features of the data and even show diverging firing rates. To alleviate this, we propose to directly minimize the divergence between neural recorded and model generated spike trains using spike train kernels. We develop a method that stochastically optimizes the maximum mean discrepancy induced by the kernel. Experiments performed on both real and synthetic neural data validate the proposed approach, showing that it leads to well-behaving models.
Sample Efficient Bayesian Learning of Causal Graphs from Interventions
Causal discovery is a fundamental problem with applications spanning various areas in science and engineering. It is well understood that solely using observational data, one can only orient the causal graph up to its Markov equivalence class, necessitating interventional data to learn the complete causal graph. Most works in the literature design causal discovery policies with perfect interventions, i.e., they have access to infinite interventional samples. This study considers a Bayesian approach for learning causal graphs with limited interventional samples, mirroring real-world scenarios where such samples are usually costly to obtain. By leveraging the recent result of Wienöbst et al. [2023] on uniform DAG sampling in polynomial time, we can efficiently enumerate all the cut configurations and their corresponding interventional distributions of a target set, and further track their posteriors.
Dangers of Bayesian Model Averaging under Covariate Shift
Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity approximate inference via full-batch Hamiltonian Monte Carlo achieve poor generalization under covariate shift, even underperforming classical estimation. We explain this surprising result, showing how a Bayesian model average can in fact be problematic under covariate shift, particularly in cases where linear dependencies in the input features cause a lack of posterior contraction. We additionally show why the same issue does not affect many approximate inference procedures, or classical maximum a-posteriori (MAP) training. Finally, we propose novel priors that improve the robustness of BNNs to many sources of covariate shift.
Warm-up Free Policy Optimization: Improved Regret in Linear Markov Decision Processes
Policy Optimization (PO) methods are among the most popular Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms in practice. Recently, Sherman et al. [2023a] proposed a PO-based algorithm with rate-optimal regret guarantees under the linear Markov Decision Process (MDP) model. However, their algorithm relies on a costly pure exploration warm-up phase that is hard to implement in practice. This paper eliminates this undesired warm-up phase, replacing it with a simple and efficient contraction mechanism. Our PO algorithm achieves rate-optimal regret with improved dependence on the other parameters of the problem (horizon and function approximation dimension) in two fundamental settings: adversarial losses with full-information feedback and stochastic losses with bandit feedback.