Learning Graphical Models
Efficient $Q$-Learning and Actor-Critic Methods for Robust Average Reward Reinforcement Learning
Xu, Yang, Ganesh, Swetha, Aggarwal, Vaneet
We present the first $Q$-learning and actor-critic algorithms for robust average reward Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with non-asymptotic convergence under contamination, TV distance and Wasserstein distance uncertainty sets. We show that the robust $Q$ Bellman operator is a strict contractive mapping with respect to a carefully constructed semi-norm with constant functions being quotiented out. This property supports a stochastic approximation update, that learns the optimal robust $Q$ function in $\tilde{\cO}(ε^{-2})$ samples. We also show that the same idea can be used for robust $Q$ function estimation, which can be further used for critic estimation. Coupling it with theories in robust policy mirror descent update, we present a natural actor-critic algorithm that attains an $ε$-optimal robust policy in $\tilde{\cO}(ε^{-3})$ samples. These results advance the theory of distributionally robust reinforcement learning in the average reward setting.
Generalization Analysis for Bayesian Optimal Experiment Design under Model Misspecification
Tang, Roubing, Sloman, Sabina J., Kaski, Samuel
In many settings in science and industry, such as drug discovery and clinical trials, a central challenge is designing experiments under time and budget constraints. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) is a paradigm to pick maximally informative designs that has been increasingly applied to such problems. During training, BOED selects inputs according to a pre-determined acquisition criterion. During testing, the model learned during training encounters a naturally occurring distribution of test samples. This leads to an instance of covariate shift, where the train and test samples are drawn from different distributions. Prior work has shown that in the presence of model misspecification, covariate shift amplifies generalization error. Our first contribution is to provide a mathematical decomposition of generalization error that reveals key contributors to generalization error in the presence of model misspecification. We show that generalization error under misspecification is the result of, in addition to covariate shift, a phenomenon we term error (de-)amplification which has not been identified or studied in prior work. Our second contribution is to provide a detailed empirical analysis to show that methods that result in representative and de-amplifying training data increase generalization performance. Our third contribution is to develop a novel acquisition function that mitigates the effects of model misspecification by including a term for representativeness and implicitly inducing de-amplification. Our experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional BOED in the presence of misspecification.
Log-Sum-Exponential Estimator for Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning
Behnamnia, Armin, Aminian, Gholamali, Aghaei, Alireza, Shi, Chengchun, Tan, Vincent Y. F., Rabiee, Hamid R.
Off-policy learning and evaluation leverage logged bandit feedback datasets, which contain context, action, propensity score, and feedback for each data point. These scenarios face significant challenges due to high variance and poor performance with low-quality propensity scores and heavy-tailed reward distributions. We address these issues by introducing a novel estimator based on the log-sum-exponential (LSE) operator, which outperforms traditional inverse propensity score estimators. Our LSE estimator demonstrates variance reduction and robustness under heavy-tailed conditions. For off-policy evaluation, we derive upper bounds on the estimator's bias and variance. In the off-policy learning scenario, we establish bounds on the regret -- the performance gap between our LSE estimator and the optimal policy -- assuming bounded $(1+ε)$-th moment of weighted reward. Notably, we achieve a convergence rate of $O(n^{-ε/(1+ ε)})$ for the regret bounds, where $ε\in [0,1]$ and $n$ is the size of logged bandit feedback dataset. Theoretical analysis is complemented by comprehensive empirical evaluations in both off-policy learning and evaluation scenarios, confirming the practical advantages of our approach. The code for our estimator is available at the following link: https://github.com/armin-behnamnia/lse-offpolicy-learning.
$τ^2$-Bench: Evaluating Conversational Agents in a Dual-Control Environment
Barres, Victor, Dong, Honghua, Ray, Soham, Si, Xujie, Narasimhan, Karthik
Existing benchmarks for conversational AI agents simulate single-control environments, where only the AI agent can use tools to interact with the world, while the user remains a passive information provider. This differs from real-world scenarios like technical support, where users need to actively participate in modifying the state of the (shared) world. In order to address this gap, we introduce $τ^2$-bench, with four key contributions: 1) A novel Telecom dual-control domain modeled as a Dec-POMDP, where both agent and user make use of tools to act in a shared, dynamic environment that tests both agent coordination and communication, 2) A compositional task generator that programmatically creates diverse, verifiable tasks from atomic components, ensuring domain coverage and controlled complexity, 3) A reliable user simulator tightly coupled with the environment, whose behavior is constrained by tools and observable states, improving simulation fidelity, 4) Fine-grained analysis of agent performance through multiple ablations including separating errors arising from reasoning vs communication/coordination. In particular, our experiments show significant performance drops when agents shift from no-user to dual-control, highlighting the challenges of guiding users. Overall, $τ^2$-bench provides a controlled testbed for agents that must both reason effectively and guide user actions.
Jarzynski Reweighting and Sampling Dynamics for Training Energy-Based Models: Theoretical Analysis of Different Transition Kernels
Energy-Based Models (EBMs) provide a flexible framework for generative modeling, but their training remains theoretically challenging due to the need to approximate normalization constants and efficiently sample from complex, multi-modal distributions. Traditional methods, such as contrastive divergence and score matching, introduce biases that can hinder accurate learning. In this work, we present a theoretical analysis of Jarzynski reweighting, a technique from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, and its implications for training EBMs. We focus on the role of the choice of the kernel and we illustrate these theoretical considerations in two key generative frameworks: (i) flow-based diffusion models, where we reinterpret Jarzynski reweighting in the context of stochastic interpolants to mitigate discretization errors and improve sample quality, and (ii) Restricted Boltzmann Machines, where we analyze its role in correcting the biases of contrastive divergence. Our results provide insights into the interplay between kernel choice and model performance, highlighting the potential of Jarzynski reweighting as a principled tool for generative learning.
Blending Participatory Design and Artificial Awareness for Trustworthy Autonomous Vehicles
Tanevska, Ana, Kumar, Ananthapathmanabhan Ratheesh, Ghosh, Arabinda, Casablanca, Ernesto, Castellano, Ginevra, Soudjani, Sadegh
Current robotic agents, such as autonomous vehicles (AVs) and drones, need to deal with uncertain real-world environments with appropriate situational awareness (SA), risk awareness, coordination, and decision-making. The SymAware project strives to address this issue by designing an architecture for artificial awareness in multi-agent systems, enabling safe collaboration of autonomous vehicles and drones. However, these agents will also need to interact with human users (drivers, pedestrians, drone operators), which in turn requires an understanding of how to model the human in the interaction scenario, and how to foster trust and transparency between the agent and the human. In this work, we aim to create a data-driven model of a human driver to be integrated into our SA architecture, grounding our research in the principles of trustworthy human-agent interaction. To collect the data necessary for creating the model, we conducted a large-scale user-centered study on human-AV interaction, in which we investigate the interaction between the AV's transparency and the users' behavior. The contributions of this paper are twofold: First, we illustrate in detail our human-AV study and its findings, and second we present the resulting Markov chain models of the human driver computed from the study's data. Our results show that depending on the AV's transparency, the scenario's environment, and the users' demographics, we can obtain significant differences in the model's transitions.
Curriculum Learning With Counterfactual Group Relative Policy Advantage For Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning
Jin, Weiqiang, Du, Hongyang, Liu, Guizhong, Kim, Dong In
Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has achieved strong performance in cooperative adversarial tasks. However, most existing methods typically train agents against fixed opponent strategies and rely on such meta-static difficulty conditions, which limits their adaptability to changing environments and often leads to suboptimal policies. Inspired by the success of curriculum learning (CL) in supervised tasks, we propose a dynamic CL framework for MARL that employs an self-adaptive difficulty adjustment mechanism. This mechanism continuously modulates opponent strength based on real-time agent training performance, allowing agents to progressively learn from easier to more challenging scenarios. However, the dynamic nature of CL introduces instability due to nonstationary environments and sparse global rewards. To address this challenge, we develop a Counterfactual Group Relative Policy Advantage (CGRPA), which is tightly coupled with the curriculum by providing intrinsic credit signals that reflect each agent's impact under evolving task demands. CGRPA constructs a counterfactual advantage function that isolates individual contributions within group behavior, facilitating more reliable policy updates throughout the curriculum. CGRPA evaluates each agent's contribution through constructing counterfactual action advantage function, providing intrinsic rewards that enhance credit assignment and stabilize learning under non-stationary conditions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method improves both training stability and final performance, achieving competitive results against state-of-the-art methods. The code is available at https://github.com/NICE-HKU/CL2MARL-SMAC.
Extending Epistemic Uncertainty Beyond Parameters Would Assist in Designing Reliable LLMs
Nguyen-Hien, T. Duy, Ivanova, Desi R., Teh, Yee Whye, Lee, Wee Sun
Although large language models (LLMs) are highly interactive and extendable, current approaches to ensure reliability in deployments remain mostly limited to rejecting outputs with high uncertainty in order to avoid misinformation. This conservative strategy reflects the current lack of tools to systematically distinguish and respond to different sources of uncertainty. In this paper, we advocate for the adoption of Bayesian Modeling of Experiments -- a framework that provides a coherent foundation to reason about uncertainty and clarify the reducibility of uncertainty -- for managing and proactively addressing uncertainty that arises in LLM deployments. This framework enables LLMs and their users to take contextually appropriate steps, such as requesting clarification, retrieving external information, or refining inputs. By supporting active resolution rather than passive avoidance, it opens the door to more reliable, transparent, and broadly applicable LLM systems, particularly in high-stakes, real-world settings.
Uncertainty-Aware Strategies: A Model-Agnostic Framework for Robust Financial Optimization through Subsampling
Buehler, Hans, Horvath, Blanka, Limmer, Yannick, Schmidt, Thorsten
This paper addresses the challenge of model uncertainty in quantitative finance, where decisions in portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and risk management rely on estimating stochastic models from limited data. In practice, the unavailability of the true probability measure forces reliance on an empirical approximation, and even small misestimations can lead to significant deviations in decision quality. Building on the framework of Klibanoff et al. (2005), we enhance the conventional objective - whether this is expected utility in an investing context or a hedging metric - by superimposing an outer "uncertainty measure", motivated by traditional monetary risk measures, on the space of models. In scenarios where a natural model distribution is lacking or Bayesian methods are impractical, we propose an ad hoc subsampling strategy, analogous to bootstrapping in statistical finance and related to mini-batch sampling in deep learning, to approximate model uncertainty. To address the quadratic memory demands of naive implementations, we also present an adapted stochastic gradient descent algorithm that enables efficient parallelization. Through analytical, simulated, and empirical studies - including multi-period, real data and high-dimensional examples - we demonstrate that uncertainty measures outperform traditional mixture of measures strategies and our model-agnostic subsampling-based approach not only enhances robustness against model risk but also achieves performance comparable to more elaborate Bayesian methods.
A Cramér-von Mises Approach to Incentivizing Truthful Data Sharing
Clinton, Alex, Zeng, Thomas, Chen, Yiding, Zhu, Xiaojin, Kandasamy, Kirthevasan
Modern data marketplaces and data sharing consortia increasingly rely on incentive mechanisms to encourage agents to contribute data. However, schemes that reward agents based on the quantity of submitted data are vulnerable to manipulation, as agents may submit fabricated or low-quality data to inflate their rewards. Prior work has proposed comparing each agent's data against others' to promote honesty: when others contribute genuine data, the best way to minimize discrepancy is to do the same. Yet prior implementations of this idea rely on very strong assumptions about the data distribution (e.g. Gaussian), limiting their applicability. In this work, we develop reward mechanisms based on a novel, two-sample test inspired by the Cramér-von Mises statistic. Our methods strictly incentivize agents to submit more genuine data, while disincentivizing data fabrication and other types of untruthful reporting. We establish that truthful reporting constitutes a (possibly approximate) Nash equilibrium in both Bayesian and prior-agnostic settings. We theoretically instantiate our method in three canonical data sharing problems and show that it relaxes key assumptions made by prior work. Empirically, we demonstrate that our mechanism incentivizes truthful data sharing via simulations and on real-world language and image data.