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 Learning Graphical Models


Markov Regime-Switching Intelligent Driver Model for Interpretable Car-Following Behavior

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate and interpretable car-following models are essential for traffic simulation and autonomous vehicle development. However, classical models like the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) are fundamentally limited by their parsimonious and single-regime structure. They fail to capture the multi-modal nature of human driving, where a single driving state (e.g., speed, relative speed, and gap) can elicit many different driver actions. This forces the model to average across distinct behaviors, reducing its fidelity and making its parameters difficult to interpret. To overcome this, we introduce a regime-switching framework that allows driving behavior to be governed by different IDM parameter sets, each corresponding to an interpretable behavioral mode. This design enables the model to dynamically switch between interpretable behavioral modes, rather than averaging across diverse driving contexts. We instantiate the framework using a Factorial Hidden Markov Model with IDM dynamics (FHMM-IDM), which explicitly separates intrinsic driving regimes (e.g., aggressive acceleration, steady-state following) from external traffic scenarios (e.g., free-flow, congestion, stop-and-go) through two independent latent Markov processes. Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to jointly estimate the regime-specific parameters, transition dynamics, and latent state trajectories. Experiments on the HighD dataset demonstrate that FHMM-IDM uncovers interpretable structure in human driving, effectively disentangling internal driver actions from contextual traffic conditions and revealing dynamic regime-switching patterns. This framework provides a tractable and principled solution to modeling context-dependent driving behavior under uncertainty, offering improvements in the fidelity of traffic simulations, the efficacy of safety analyses, and the development of more human-centric ADAS.


Toward Safety-First Human-Like Decision Making for Autonomous Vehicles in Time-Varying Traffic Flow

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the recent advancements in artificial intelligence technologies have shown great potential in improving transport efficiency and safety, autonomous vehicles(AVs) still face great challenge of driving in time-varying traffic flow, especially in dense and interactive situations. Meanwhile, human have free wills and usually do not make the same decisions even situate in the exactly same scenarios, leading to the data-driven methods suffer from poor migratability and high search cost problems, decreasing the efficiency and effectiveness of the behavior policy. In this research, we propose a safety-first human-like decision-making framework(SF-HLDM) for AVs to drive safely, comfortably, and social compatiblely in effiency. The framework integrates a hierarchical progressive framework, which combines a spatial-temporal attention (S-TA) mechanism for other road users' intention inference, a social compliance estimation module for behavior regulation, and a Deep Evolutionary Reinforcement Learning(DERL) model for expanding the search space efficiently and effectively to make avoidance of falling into the local optimal trap and reduce the risk of overfitting, thus make human-like decisions with interpretability and flexibility. The SF-HLDM framework enables autonomous driving AI agents dynamically adjusts decision parameters to maintain safety margins and adhering to contextually appropriate driving behaviors at the same time.


Enhancing Object Search in Indoor Spaces via Personalized Object-factored Ontologies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Personalization is critical for the advancement of service robots. Robots need to develop tailored understandings of the environments they are put in. Moreover, they need to be aware of changes in the environment to facilitate long-term deployment. Long-term understanding as well as personalization is necessary to execute complex tasks like prepare dinner table or tidy my room. A precursor to such tasks is that of Object Search. Consequently, this paper focuses on locating and searching multiple objects in indoor environments. In this paper, we propose two crucial novelties. Firstly, we propose a novel framework that can enable robots to deduce Personalized Ontologies of indoor environments. Our framework consists of a personalization schema that enables the robot to tune its understanding of ontologies. Secondly, we propose an Adaptive Inferencing strategy. We integrate Dynamic Belief Updates into our approach which improves performance in multi-object search tasks. The cumulative effect of personalization and adaptive inferencing is an improved capability in long-term object search. This framework is implemented on top of a multi-layered semantic map. We conduct experiments in real environments and compare our results against various state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Additionally, we show that personalization can act as a catalyst to enhance the performance of SOTAs. Video Link: https://bit.ly/3WHk9i9


Adaptive Reinforcement Learning for Unobservable Random Delays

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) settings, the interaction between the agent and the environment is typically modeled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), which assumes that the agent observes the system state instantaneously, selects an action without delay, and executes it immediately. In real-world dynamic environments, such as cyber-physical systems, this assumption often breaks down due to delays in the interaction between the agent and the system. These delays can vary stochastically over time and are typically unobservable, meaning they are unknown when deciding on an action. Existing methods deal with this uncertainty conservatively by assuming a known fixed upper bound on the delay, even if the delay is often much lower. In this work, we introduce the interaction layer, a general framework that enables agents to adaptively and seamlessly handle unobservable and time-varying delays. Specifically, the agent generates a matrix of possible future actions to handle both unpredictable delays and lost action packets sent over networks. Building on this framework, we develop a model-based algorithm, Actor-Critic with Delay Adaptation (ACDA), which dynamically adjusts to delay patterns. Our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches across a wide range of locomotion benchmark environments.


What's in the Box? Reasoning about Unseen Objects from Multimodal Cues

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

People regularly make inferences about objects in the world that they cannot see by flexibly integrating information from multiple sources: auditory and visual cues, language, and our prior beliefs and knowledge about the scene. How are we able to so flexibly integrate many sources of information to make sense of the world around us, even if we have no direct knowledge? In this work, we propose a neurosymbolic model that uses neural networks to parse open-ended multi-modal inputs and then applies a Bayesian model to integrate different sources of information to evaluate different hypotheses. We evaluate our model with a novel object guessing game called "What's in the Box?" where humans and models watch a video clip of an experimenter shaking boxes and then try to guess the objects inside the boxes. Through a human experiment, we show that our model correlates strongly with human judgments, whereas unimodal ablated models and large multi-modal neural model baselines showed poor correlation.


Hierarchical Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning-based Coordinated Spatial Reuse for Next Generation WLANs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--High-density Wi-Fi deployments often result in significant co-channel interference, which degrades overall network performance. T o address this issue, coordination of multi access points (APs) has been considered to enable coordinated spatial reuse (CSR) in next generation wireless local area networks. This paper tackles the challenge of downlink spatial reuse in Wi-Fi networks, specifically in scenarios involving overlapping basic service sets, by employing hierarchical multi-agent reinforcement learning (HMARL). We decompose the CSR process into two phases, i.e., a polling phase and a decision phase, and introduce the HMARL algorithm to enable efficient CSR. T o enhance training efficiency, the proposed HMARL algorithm employs a hierarchical structure, where station selection and power control are determined by a high-and low-level policy network, respectively. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach consistently outperforms baseline methods in terms of throughput and latency across various network topologies. Moreover, the algorithm exhibits robust performance when coexisting with legacy APs. Additional experiments in a representative topology further reveal that the carefully designed reward function not only maximizes the overall network throughput, but also improves fairness in transmission opportunities for APs in high-interference regions. Index T erms --Overlapping basic service set, channel access, multi-agent reinforcement learning, coordinated spatial reuse. Wi-Fi has become a pivotal technology in wireless local area networks (WLANs), with the latest commercial technologies Wi-Fi 6 [1] and Wi-Fi 7 [2] widely deployed in various scenarios to provide users with high data rate coverage.


Discovering Temporal Structure: An Overview of Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Developing agents capable of exploring, planning and learning in complex open-ended environments is a grand challenge in artificial intelligence (AI). Hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) offers a promising solution to this challenge by discovering and exploiting the temporal structure within a stream of experience. The strong appeal of the HRL framework has led to a rich and diverse body of literature attempting to discover a useful structure. However, it is still not clear how one might define what constitutes good structure in the first place, or the kind of problems in which identifying it may be helpful. This work aims to identify the benefits of HRL from the perspective of the fundamental challenges in decision-making, as well as highlight its impact on the performance trade-offs of AI agents. Through these benefits, we then cover the families of methods that discover temporal structure in HRL, ranging from learning directly from online experience to offline datasets, to leveraging large language models (LLMs). Finally, we highlight the challenges of temporal structure discovery and the domains that are particularly well-suited for such endeavours.


Sketched Sum-Product Networks for Joins

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sketches have shown high accuracy in multi-way join cardinality estimation, a critical problem in cost-based query optimization. Accurately estimating the cardinality of a join operation -- analogous to its computational cost -- allows the optimization of query execution costs in relational database systems. However, although sketches have shown high efficacy in query optimization, they are typically constructed specifically for predefined selections in queries that are assumed to be given a priori, hindering their applicability to new queries. As a more general solution, we propose for Sum-Product Networks to dynamically approximate sketches on-the-fly. Sum-Product Networks can decompose and model multivariate distributions, such as relations, as linear combinations of multiple univariate distributions. By representing these univariate distributions as sketches, Sum-Product Networks can combine them element-wise to efficiently approximate the sketch of any query selection. These approximate sketches can then be applied to join cardinality estimation. In particular, we implement the Fast-AGMS and Bound Sketch methods, which have successfully been used in prior work, despite their costly construction. By accurately approximating them instead, our work provides a practical alternative to apply these sketches to query optimization.


GRaD-Nav++: Vision-Language Model Enabled Visual Drone Navigation with Gaussian Radiance Fields and Differentiable Dynamics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous drones capable of interpreting and executing high-level language instructions in unstructured environments remain a long-standing goal. Yet existing approaches are constrained by their dependence on hand-crafted skills, extensive parameter tuning, or computationally intensive models unsuitable for onboard use. We introduce GRaD-Nav++, a lightweight Vision-Language-Action (VLA) framework that runs fully onboard and follows natural-language commands in real time. Our policy is trained in a photorealistic 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) simulator via Differentiable Reinforcement Learning (DiffRL), enabling efficient learning of low-level control from visual and linguistic inputs. At its core is a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) action head, which adaptively routes computation to improve generalization while mitigating forgetting. In multi-task generalization experiments, GRaD-Nav++ achieves a success rate of 83% on trained tasks and 75% on unseen tasks in simulation. When deployed on real hardware, it attains 67% success on trained tasks and 50% on unseen ones. In multi-environment adaptation experiments, GRaD-Nav++ achieves an average success rate of 81% across diverse simulated environments and 67% across varied real-world settings. These results establish a new benchmark for fully onboard Vision-Language-Action (VLA) flight and demonstrate that compact, efficient models can enable reliable, language-guided navigation without relying on external infrastructure.


Statistical Machine Learning for Astronomy -- A Textbook

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This textbook provides a systematic treatment of statistical machine learning for astronomical research through the lens of Bayesian inference, developing a unified framework that reveals connections between modern data analysis techniques and traditional statistical methods. We show how these techniques emerge from familiar statistical foundations. The consistently Bayesian perspective prioritizes uncertainty quantification and statistical rigor essential for scientific inference in astronomy. The textbook progresses from probability theory and Bayesian inference through supervised learning including linear regression with measurement uncertainties, logistic regression, and classification. Unsupervised learning topics cover Principal Component Analysis and clustering methods. We then introduce computational techniques through sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo, followed by Gaussian Processes as probabilistic nonparametric methods and neural networks within the broader statistical context. Our theory-focused pedagogical approach derives each method from first principles with complete mathematical development, emphasizing statistical insight and complementing with astronomical applications. We prioritize understanding why algorithms work, when they are appropriate, and how they connect to broader statistical principles. The treatment builds toward modern techniques including neural networks through a solid foundation in classical methods and their theoretical underpinnings. This foundation enables thoughtful application of these methods to astronomical research, ensuring proper consideration of assumptions, limitations, and uncertainty propagation essential for advancing astronomical knowledge in the era of large astronomical surveys.