Real-time identification and quantification of greenhouse-gas emissions under transient atmospheric conditions is a critical challenge in environmental monitoring. We introduce a spatio-temporal inversion framework that embeds a deep-learning surrogate of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to perform Bayesian inference of both emission rate and source location in dynamic flow fields. By substituting costly numerical solvers with a multilayer perceptron trained on high-fidelity CFD outputs, our surrogate captures spatial heterogeneity and temporal evolution of gas dispersion, while delivering near-real-time predictions. Validation on the Chilbolton methane release dataset demonstrates comparable accuracy to full CFD solvers and Gaussian plume models, yet achieves orders-of-magnitude faster runtimes. Further experiments under simulated obstructed-flow scenarios confirm robustness in complex environments. This work reconciles physical fidelity with computational feasibility, offering a scalable solution for industrial emissions monitoring and other time-sensitive spatio-temporal inversion tasks in environmental and scientific modeling.

Humans interpret the world around them in terms of cause and effect and communicate their understanding of the world to each other in causal terms. These causal aspects of human cognition are thought to underlie humans' ability to generalize and learn efficiently in new domains, an area where current machine learning systems are weak. Building human-like causal competency into machine learning systems may facilitate the construction of effective and interpretable AI. Indeed, the machine learning community has been importing ideas on causality formalized by the Structural Causal Model (SCM) framework, which provides a rigorous formal language for many aspects of causality and has led to significant advances. However, the SCM framework fails to capture some salient aspects of human causal cognition and has likewise not yet led to advances in machine learning in certain critical areas where humans excel. We contend that the problem of causality in the ``human niche'' -- for a social, autonomous, and goal-driven agent sensing and acting in the world in which humans live -- is quite different from the kind of causality captured by SCMs. For example, everyday objects come in similar types that have similar causal properties, and so humans readily generalize knowledge of one type of object (cups) to another related type (bowls) by drawing causal analogies between objects with similar properties, but such analogies are at best awkward to express in SCMs. We explore how such causal capabilities are adaptive in, and motivated by, the human niche. By better appreciating properties of human causal cognition and, crucially, how those properties are adaptive in the niche in which humans live, we hope that future work at the intersection of machine learning and causality will leverage more human-like inductive biases to create more capable, controllable, and interpretable systems.

We present the Gaussian process dynamical mixture model (GPDMM) and show its utility in single-example learning of human motion data. The Gaussian process dynamical model (GPDM) is a form of the Gaussian process latent variable model (GPLVM), but optimized with a hidden Markov model dynamical prior. The GPDMM combines multiple GPDMs in a probabilistic mixture-of-experts framework, utilizing embedded geometric features to allow for diverse sequences to be encoded in a single latent space, enabling the categorization and generation of each sequence class. GPDMs and our mixture model are particularly advantageous in addressing the challenges of modeling human movement in scenarios where data is limited and model interpretability is vital, such as in patient-specific medical applications like prosthesis control. We score the GPDMM on classification accuracy and generative ability in single-example learning, showcase model variations, and benchmark it against LSTMs, VAEs, and transformers.

Despite promising developments in Explainable Artificial Intelligence, the practical value of XAI methods remains under-explored and insufficiently validated in real-world settings. Robust and context-aware evaluation is essential, not only to produce understandable explanations but also to ensure their trustworthiness and usability for intended users, but tends to be overlooked because of no clear guidelines on how to design an evaluation with users. This study addresses this gap with two main goals: (1) to develop a framework of well-defined, atomic properties that characterise the user experience of XAI in healthcare; and (2) to provide clear, context-sensitive guidelines for defining evaluation strategies based on system characteristics. We conducted a systematic review of 82 user studies, sourced from five databases, all situated within healthcare settings and focused on evaluating AI-generated explanations. The analysis was guided by a predefined coding scheme informed by an existing evaluation framework, complemented by inductive codes developed iteratively. The review yields three key contributions: (1) a synthesis of current evaluation practices, highlighting a growing focus on human-centred approaches in healthcare XAI; (2) insights into the interrelations among explanation properties; and (3) an updated framework and a set of actionable guidelines to support interdisciplinary teams in designing and implementing effective evaluation strategies for XAI systems tailored to specific application contexts.

Reinforcement learning-based traffic signal control (RL-TSC) has emerged as a promising approach for improving urban mobility. However, its robustness under real-world disruptions such as traffic incidents remains largely underexplored. In this study, we introduce T-REX, an open-source, SUMO-based simulation framework for training and evaluating RL-TSC methods under dynamic, incident scenarios. T-REX models realistic network-level performance considering drivers' probabilistic rerouting, speed adaptation, and contextual lane-changing, enabling the simulation of congestion propagation under incidents. To assess robustness, we propose a suite of metrics that extend beyond conventional traffic efficiency measures. Through extensive experiments across synthetic and real-world networks, we showcase T-REX for the evaluation of several state-of-the-art RL-TSC methods under multiple real-world deployment paradigms. Our findings show that while independent value-based and decentralized pressure-based methods offer fast convergence and generalization in stable traffic conditions and homogeneous networks, their performance degrades sharply under incident-driven distribution shifts. In contrast, hierarchical coordination methods tend to offer more stable and adaptable performance in large-scale, irregular networks, benefiting from their structured decision-making architecture. However, this comes with the trade-off of slower convergence and higher training complexity. These findings highlight the need for robustness-aware design and evaluation in RL-TSC research. T-REX contributes to this effort by providing an open, standardized and reproducible platform for benchmarking RL methods under dynamic and disruptive traffic scenarios.

Document pages captured by smartphones or scanners often contain tables, yet manual extraction is slow and error-prone. We introduce an automated LaTeX-based pipeline that synthesizes realistic two-column pages with visually diverse table layouts and aligned ground-truth masks. The generated corpus augments the real-world Marmot benchmark and enables a systematic resolution study of TableNet. Training TableNet on our synthetic data achieves a pixel-wise XOR error of 4.04% on our synthetic test set with a 256x256 input resolution, and 4.33% with 1024x1024. The best performance on the Marmot benchmark is 9.18% (at 256x256), while cutting manual annotation effort through automation.

Bayesian methods have recently been used to improve LoRA finetuning and, although they improve calibration, their effect on other metrics (such as accuracy) is marginal and can sometimes even be detrimental. Moreover, Bayesian methods also increase computational overheads and require additional tricks for them to work well. Here, we fix these issues by using a recently proposed variational algorithm called IVON. We show that IVON is easy to implement and has similar costs to AdamW, and yet it can also drastically improve many metrics by using a simple posterior pruning technique. We present extensive results on billion-scale LLMs (Llama and Qwen series) going way beyond the scale of existing applications of IVON. For example, we finetune a Llama-3.2-3B model on a set of commonsense reasoning tasks and improve accuracy over AdamW by 1.3% and reduce ECE by 5.4%, outperforming AdamW and other recent Bayesian methods like Laplace-LoRA and BLoB. Overall, our results show that variational learning with IVON can effectively improve LoRA finetuning.

Most existing literature on supervised machine learning assumes that the training dataset is drawn from an i.i.d. sample. However, many real-world problems exhibit temporal dependence and strong correlations between the marginal distributions of the data-generating process, suggesting that the i.i.d. assumption is often unrealistic. In such cases, models naturally include time-series processes with mixing properties, as well as irreducible and aperiodic ergodic Markov chains. Moreover, the learning rates typically obtained in these settings are independent of the data distribution, which can lead to restrictive choices of hypothesis classes and suboptimal sample complexities for the learning algorithm. In this article, we consider the case where the training dataset is generated by an iterated random function (i.e., an iteratively defined time-homogeneous Markov chain) that is not necessarily irreducible or aperiodic. Under the assumption that the governing function is contractive with respect to its first argument and subject to certain regularity conditions on the hypothesis class, we first establish a uniform convergence result for the corresponding sample error. We then demonstrate the learnability of the approximate empirical risk minimization algorithm and derive its learning rate bound. Both rates are data-distribution dependent, expressed in terms of the Rademacher complexities of the underlying hypothesis class, allowing them to more accurately reflect the properties of the data-generating distribution.

Gallstone disease is a complex, multifactorial condition with significant global health burdens. Identifying underlying risk factors and their interactions is crucial for early diagnosis, targeted prevention, and effective clinical management. Although logistic regression remains a standard tool for assessing associations between predictors and gallstone status, it often underperforms in high-dimensional settings and may fail to capture intricate relationships among variables. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid machine learning framework that integrates robust variable selection with advanced interaction detection. Specifically, Adaptive LASSO is employed to identify a sparse and interpretable subset of influential features, followed by Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to model nonlinear effects and uncover key interactions. Selected interactions are further characterized by physiological knowledge through differential equation-informed interaction terms, grounding the model in biologically plausible mechanisms. The insights gained from these steps are then integrated into a final logistic regression model within a Bayesian framework, providing a balance between predictive accuracy and clinical interpretability. This proposed framework not only enhances prediction but also yields actionable insights, offering a valuable support tool for medical research and decision-making.

Anomaly detection (AD) is a critical task across domains such as cybersecurity and healthcare. In the unsupervised setting, an effective and theoretically-grounded principle is to train classifiers to distinguish normal data from (synthetic) anomalies. We extend this principle to semi-supervised AD, where training data also include a limited labeled subset of anomalies possibly present in test time. We propose a theoretically-grounded and empirically effective framework for semi-supervised AD that combines known and synthetic anomalies during training. To analyze semi-supervised AD, we introduce the first mathematical formulation of semi-supervised AD, which generalizes unsupervised AD. Here, we show that synthetic anomalies enable (i) better anomaly modeling in low-density regions and (ii) optimal convergence guarantees for neural network classifiers -- the first theoretical result for semi-supervised AD. We empirically validate our framework on five diverse benchmarks, observing consistent performance gains. These improvements also extend beyond our theoretical framework to other classification-based AD methods, validating the generalizability of the synthetic anomaly principle in AD.