Learning Graphical Models
Diffusion-Based Hypothesis Testing and Change-Point Detection
Moushegian, Sean, Banerjee, Taposh, Tarokh, Vahid
Score-based methods have recently seen increasing popularity in modeling and generation. Methods have been constructed to perform hypothesis testing and change-point detection with score functions, but these methods are in general not as powerful as their likelihood-based peers. Recent works consider generalizing the score-based Fisher divergence into a diffusion-divergence by transforming score functions via multiplication with a matrix-valued function or a weight matrix. In this paper, we extend the score-based hypothesis test and change-point detection stopping rule into their diffusion-based analogs. Additionally, we theoretically quantify the performance of these diffusion-based algorithms and study scenarios where optimal performance is achievable. We propose a method of numerically optimizing the weight matrix and present numerical simulations to illustrate the advantages of diffusion-based algorithms.
Linear-Time Primitives for Algorithm Development in Graphical Causal Inference
Wienöbst, Marcel, Weichwald, Sebastian, Henckel, Leonard
We introduce CIfly, a framework for efficient algorithmic primitives in graphical causal inference that isolates reachability as a reusable core operation. It builds on the insight that many causal reasoning tasks can be reduced to reachability in purpose-built state-space graphs that can be constructed on the fly during traversal. We formalize a rule table schema for specifying such algorithms and prove they run in linear time. We establish CIfly as a more efficient alternative to the common primitives moralization and latent projection, which we show are computationally equivalent to Boolean matrix multiplication. Our open-source Rust implementation parses rule table text files and runs the specified CIfly algorithms providing high-performance execution accessible from Python and R. We demonstrate CIfly's utility by re-implementing a range of established causal inference tasks within the framework and by developing new algorithms for instrumental variables.
PPTP: Performance-Guided Physiological Signal-Based Trust Prediction in Human-Robot Collaboration
Guo, Hao, Fan, Wei, Liu, Shaohui, Jiang, Feng, Yi, Chunzhi
-- Trust prediction is a key issue in human-robot collaboration, especially in construction scenarios where maintaining appropriate trust calibration is critical for safety and efficiency. This paper introduces the Performance-guided Physiological signal-based Trust Prediction (PPTP), a novel framework designed to improve trust assessment. We designed a human-robot construction scenario with three difficulty levels to induce different trust states. Our approach integrates synchronized multimodal physiological signals (ECG, GSR, and EMG) with collaboration performance evaluation to predict human trust levels. Individual physiological signals are processed using collaboration performance information as guiding cues, leveraging the standardized nature of collaboration performance to compensate for individual variations in physiological responses. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our cross-modality fusion method in significantly improving trust classification performance. Our model achieves over 81% accuracy in three-level trust classification, outperforming the best baseline method by 6.7%, and notably reaches 74.3% accuracy in high-resolution seven-level classification, which is a first in trust prediction research. Ablation experiments further validate the superiority of physiological signal processing guided by collaboration performance assessment.
Neural Polar Decoders for DNA Data Storage
Aharoni, Ziv, Pfister, Henry D.
Synchronization errors, such as insertions and deletions, present a fundamental challenge in DNA-based data storage systems, arising from both synthesis and sequencing noise. These channels are often modeled as insertion-deletion-substitution (IDS) channels, for which designing maximum-likelihood decoders is computationally expensive. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach based on neural polar decoders (NPDs) to design low-complexity decoders for channels with synchronization errors. The proposed architecture enables decoding over IDS channels with reduced complexity $O(AN log N )$, where $A$ is a tunable parameter independent of the channel. NPDs require only sample access to the channel and can be trained without an explicit channel model. Additionally, NPDs provide mutual information (MI) estimates that can be used to optimize input distributions and code design. We demonstrate the effectiveness of NPDs on both synthetic deletion and IDS channels. For deletion channels, we show that NPDs achieve near-optimal decoding performance and accurate MI estimation, with significantly lower complexity than trellis-based decoders. We also provide numerical estimates of the channel capacity for the deletion channel. We extend our evaluation to realistic DNA storage settings, including channels with multiple noisy reads and real-world Nanopore sequencing data. Our results show that NPDs match or surpass the performance of existing methods while using significantly fewer parameters than the state-of-the-art. These findings highlight the promise of NPDs for robust and efficient decoding in DNA data storage systems.
Generalizable Agent Modeling for Agent Collaboration-Competition Adaptation with Multi-Retrieval and Dynamic Generation
Wang, Chenxu, Jin, Yonggang, Hu, Cheng, Zhao, Youpeng, Dai, Zipeng, Zhao, Jian, Huang, Shiyu, Xiang, Liuyu, Zhang, Junge, He, Zhaofeng
Adapting a single agent to a new multi-agent system brings challenges, necessitating adjustments across various tasks, environments, and interactions with unknown teammates and opponents. Addressing this challenge is highly complex, and researchers have proposed two simplified scenarios, Multi-agent reinforcement learning for zero-shot learning and Ad-Hoc Teamwork. Building on these foundations, we propose a more comprehensive setting, Agent Collaborative-Competitive Adaptation (ACCA), which evaluates an agent to generalize across diverse scenarios, tasks, and interactions with both unfamiliar opponents and teammates. In ACCA, agents adjust to task and environmental changes, collaborate with unseen teammates, and compete against unknown opponents. We introduce a new modeling approach, Multi-Retrieval and Dynamic Generation (MRDG), that effectively models both teammates and opponents using their behavioral trajectories. This method incorporates a positional encoder for varying team sizes and a hypernetwork module to boost agents' learning and adaptive capabilities. Additionally, a viewpoint alignment module harmonizes the observational perspectives of retrieved teammates and opponents with the learning agent. Extensive tests in benchmark scenarios like SMAC, Overcooked-AI, and Melting Pot show that MRDG significantly improves robust collaboration and competition with unseen teammates and opponents, surpassing established baselines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/vcis-wangchenxu/MRDG.git
Goal-conditioned Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Sample-efficient and Safe Autonomous Driving at Intersections
Reinforcement learning (RL) exhibits remarkable potential in addressing autonomous driving tasks. However, it is difficult to train a sample-efficient and safe policy in complex scenarios. In this article, we propose a novel hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) framework with a goal-conditioned collision prediction (GCCP) module. In the hierarchical structure, the GCCP module predicts collision risks according to different potential subgoals of the ego vehicle. A high-level decision-maker choose the best safe subgoal. A low-level motion-planner interacts with the environment according to the subgoal. Compared to traditional RL methods, our algorithm is more sample-efficient, since its hierarchical structure allows reusing the policies of subgoals across similar tasks for various navigation scenarios. In additional, the GCCP module's ability to predict both the ego vehicle's and surrounding vehicles' future actions according to different subgoals, ensures the safety of the ego vehicle throughout the decision-making process. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method converges to an optimal policy faster and achieves higher safety than traditional RL methods.
Next-Token Prediction Should be Ambiguity-Sensitive: A Meta-Learning Perspective
Gagnon, Leo, Elmoznino, Eric, Mittal, Sarthak, Marty, Tom, Kasetty, Tejas, Sridhar, Dhanya, Lajoie, Guillaume
The rapid adaptation ability of auto-regressive foundation models is often attributed to the diversity of their pre-training data. This is because, from a Bayesian standpoint, minimizing prediction error in such settings requires integrating over all plausible latent hypotheses consistent with observations. While this behavior is desirable in principle, it often proves too ambitious in practice: under high ambiguity, the number of plausible latent alternatives makes Bayes-optimal prediction computationally intractable. Cognitive science has long recognized this limitation, suggesting that under such conditions, heuristics or information-seeking strategies are preferable to exhaustive inference. Translating this insight to next-token prediction, we hypothesize that low- and high-ambiguity predictions pose different computational demands, making ambiguity-agnostic next-token prediction a detrimental inductive bias. To test this, we introduce MetaHMM, a synthetic sequence meta-learning benchmark with rich compositional structure and a tractable Bayesian oracle. We show that Transformers indeed struggle with high-ambiguity predictions across model sizes. Motivated by cognitive theories, we propose a method to convert pre-trained models into Monte Carlo predictors that decouple task inference from token prediction. Preliminary results show substantial gains in ambiguous contexts through improved capacity allocation and test-time scalable inference, though challenges remain.
Think Global, Act Local: Bayesian Causal Discovery with Language Models in Sequential Data
Verma, Prakhar, Arbour, David, Choudhary, Sunav, Chopra, Harshita, Solin, Arno, Sinha, Atanu R.
Causal discovery from observational data typically assumes full access to data and availability of domain experts. In practice, data often arrive in batches, and expert knowledge is scarce. Language Models (LMs) offer a surrogate but come with their own issues-hallucinations, inconsistencies, and bias. We present BLANCE (Bayesian LM-Augmented Causal Estimation)-a hybrid Bayesian framework that bridges these gaps by adaptively integrating sequential batch data with LM-derived noisy, expert knowledge while accounting for both data-induced and LM-induced biases. Our proposed representation shift from Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) to Partial Ancestral Graph (PAG) accommodates ambiguities within a coherent Bayesian framework, allowing grounding the global LM knowledge in local observational data. To guide LM interaction, we use a sequential optimization scheme that adaptively queries the most informative edges. Across varied datasets, BLANCE outperforms prior work in structural accuracy and extends to Bayesian parameter estimation, showing robustness to LM noise.
RiOSWorld: Benchmarking the Risk of Multimodal Computer-Use Agents
Yang, Jingyi, Shao, Shuai, Liu, Dongrui, Shao, Jing
With the rapid development of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), they are increasingly deployed as autonomous computer-use agents capable of accomplishing complex computer tasks. However, a pressing issue arises: Can the safety risk principles designed and aligned for general MLLMs in dialogue scenarios be effectively transferred to real-world computer-use scenarios? Existing research on evaluating the safety risks of MLLM-based computer-use agents suffers from several limitations: it either lacks realistic interactive environments, or narrowly focuses on one or a few specific risk types. These limitations ignore the complexity, variability, and diversity of real-world environments, thereby restricting comprehensive risk evaluation for computer-use agents. To this end, we introduce \textbf{RiOSWorld}, a benchmark designed to evaluate the potential risks of MLLM-based agents during real-world computer manipulations. Our benchmark includes 492 risky tasks spanning various computer applications, involving web, social media, multimedia, os, email, and office software. We categorize these risks into two major classes based on their risk source: (i) User-originated risks and (ii) Environmental risks. For the evaluation, we evaluate safety risks from two perspectives: (i) Risk goal intention and (ii) Risk goal completion. Extensive experiments with multimodal agents on \textbf{RiOSWorld} demonstrate that current computer-use agents confront significant safety risks in real-world scenarios. Our findings highlight the necessity and urgency of safety alignment for computer-use agents in real-world computer manipulation, providing valuable insights for developing trustworthy computer-use agents. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://yjyddq.github.io/RiOSWorld.github.io/.
Investigating Lagrangian Neural Networks for Infinite Horizon Planning in Quadrupedal Locomotion
Kotecha, Prakrut, Shirwatkar, Aditya, Kolathaya, Shishir
Lagrangian Neural Networks (LNNs) present a principled and interpretable framework for learning the system dynamics by utilizing inductive biases. While traditional dynamics models struggle with compounding errors over long horizons, LNNs intrinsically preserve the physical laws governing any system, enabling accurate and stable predictions essential for sustainable locomotion. This work evaluates LNNs for infinite horizon planning in quadrupedal robots through four dynamics models: (1) full-order forward dynamics (FD) training and inference, (2) diagonalized representation of Mass Matrix in full order FD, (3) full-order inverse dynamics (ID) training with FD inference, (4) reduced-order modeling via torso centre-of-mass (CoM) dynamics. Experiments demonstrate that LNNs bring improvements in sample efficiency (10x) and superior prediction accuracy (up to 2-10x) compared to baseline methods. Notably, the diagonalization approach of LNNs reduces computational complexity while retaining some interpretability, enabling real-time receding horizon control. These findings highlight the advantages of LNNs in capturing the underlying structure of system dynamics in quadrupeds, leading to improved performance and efficiency in locomotion planning and control. Additionally, our approach achieves a higher control frequency than previous LNN methods, demonstrating its potential for real-world deployment on quadrupeds.