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 Learning Graphical Models


GKNet: Graph Kalman Filtering and Model Inference via Model-based Deep Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inference tasks with time series over graphs are of importance in applications such as urban water networks, economics, and networked neuroscience. Addressing these tasks typically relies on identifying a computationally affordable model that jointly captures the graph-temporal patterns of the data. In this work, we propose a graph-aware state space model for graph time series, where both the latent state and the observation equation are parametric graph-induced models with a limited number of parameters that need to be learned. More specifically, we consider the state equation to follow a stochastic partial differential equation driven by noise over the graphs edges accounting not only for potential edge uncertainties but also for increasing the degrees of freedom in the latter in a tractable manner. The graph structure conditioning of the noise dispersion allows the state variable to deviate from the stochastic process in certain neighborhoods. The observation model is a sampled and graph-filtered version of the state capturing multi-hop neighboring influence. The goal is to learn the parameters in both state and observation models from the partially observed data for downstream tasks such as prediction and imputation. The model is inferred first through a maximum likelihood approach that provides theoretical tractability but is limited in expressivity and scalability. To improve on the latter, we use the state-space formulation to build a principled deep learning architecture that jointly learns the parameters and tracks the state in an end-to-end manner in the spirit of Kalman neural networks.


Interactive Multi-Objective Probabilistic Preference Learning with Soft and Hard Bounds

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High-stakes decision-making involves navigating multiple competing objectives with expensive evaluations. For instance, in brachytherapy, clinicians must balance maximizing tumor coverage (e.g., an aspirational target or soft bound of >95% coverage) against strict organ dose limits (e.g., a non-negotiable hard bound of <601 cGy to the bladder), with each plan evaluation being resource-intensive. Selecting Pareto-optimal solutions that match implicit preferences is challenging, as exhaustive Pareto frontier exploration is computationally and cognitively prohibitive, necessitating interactive frameworks to guide users. While decision-makers (DMs) often possess domain knowledge to narrow the search via such soft-hard bounds, current methods often lack systematic approaches to iteratively refine these multi-faceted preference structures. Critically, DMs must trust their final decision, confident they haven't missed superior alternatives; this trust is paramount in high-consequence scenarios. We present Active-MoSH, an interactive local-global framework designed for this process. Its local component integrates soft-hard bounds with probabilistic preference learning, maintaining distributions over DM preferences and bounds for adaptive Pareto subset refinement. This is guided by an active sampling strategy optimizing exploration-exploitation while minimizing cognitive burden. To build DM trust, Active-MoSH's global component, T-MoSH, leverages multi-objective sensitivity analysis to identify potentially overlooked, high-value points beyond immediate feedback. We demonstrate Active-MoSH's performance benefits through diverse synthetic and real-world applications. A user study on AI-generated image selection further validates our hypotheses regarding the framework's ability to improve convergence, enhance DM trust, and provide expressive preference articulation, enabling more effective DMs.


Advancements and Challenges in Continual Reinforcement Learning: A Comprehensive Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The diversity of tasks and dynamic nature of reinforcement learning (RL) require RL agents to be able to learn sequentially and continuously, a learning paradigm known as continuous reinforcement learning. This survey reviews how continual learning transforms RL agents into dynamic continual learners. This enables RL agents to acquire and retain useful and reusable knowledge seamlessly. The paper delves into fundamental aspects of continual reinforcement learning, exploring key concepts, significant challenges, and novel methodologies. Special emphasis is placed on recent advancements in continual reinforcement learning within robotics, along with a succinct overview of evaluation environments utilized in prominent research, facilitating accessibility for newcomers to the field. The review concludes with a discussion on limitations and promising future directions, providing valuable insights for researchers and practitioners alike.


Less Greedy Equivalence Search

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) is a classic score-based algorithm for causal discovery from observational data. In the sample limit, it recovers the Markov equivalence class of graphs that describe the data. Still, it faces two challenges in practice: computational cost and finite-sample accuracy. In this paper, we develop Less Greedy Equivalence Search (LGES), a variant of GES that retains its theoretical guarantees while partially addressing these limitations. LGES modifies the greedy step: rather than always applying the highest-scoring insertion, it avoids edge insertions between variables for which the score implies some conditional independence. This more targeted search yields up to a \(10\)-fold speed-up and a substantial reduction in structural error relative to GES. Moreover, LGES can guide the search using prior assumptions, while correcting these assumptions when contradicted by the data. Finally, LGES can exploit interventional data to refine the learned observational equivalence class. We prove that LGES recovers the true equivalence class in the sample limit from observational and interventional data, even with misspecified prior assumptions. Experiments demonstrate that LGES outperforms GES and other baselines in speed, accuracy, and robustness to misspecified assumptions. Our code is available at https://github.com/CausalAILab/lges.


Multi-agent Markov Entanglement

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Value decomposition has long been a fundamental technique in multi-agent dynamic programming and reinforcement learning (RL). Specifically, the value function of a global state $(s_1,s_2,\ldots,s_N)$ is often approximated as the sum of local functions: $V(s_1,s_2,\ldots,s_N)\approx\sum_{i=1}^N V_i(s_i)$. This approach traces back to the index policy in restless multi-armed bandit problems and has found various applications in modern RL systems. However, the theoretical justification for why this decomposition works so effectively remains underexplored. In this paper, we uncover the underlying mathematical structure that enables value decomposition. We demonstrate that a multi-agent Markov decision process (MDP) permits value decomposition if and only if its transition matrix is not "entangled" -- a concept analogous to quantum entanglement in quantum physics. Drawing inspiration from how physicists measure quantum entanglement, we introduce how to measure the "Markov entanglement" for multi-agent MDPs and show that this measure can be used to bound the decomposition error in general multi-agent MDPs. Using the concept of Markov entanglement, we proved that a widely-used class of index policies is weakly entangled and enjoys a sublinear $\mathcal O(\sqrt{N})$ scale of decomposition error for $N$-agent systems. Finally, we show how Markov entanglement can be efficiently estimated in practice, providing practitioners with an empirical proxy for the quality of value decomposition.


Using Large Language Models to Suggest Informative Prior Distributions in Bayesian Statistics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Selecting prior distributions in Bayesian statistics is challenging, resource-intensive, and subjective. We analyze using large-language models (LLMs) to suggest suitable, knowledge-based informative priors. We developed an extensive prompt asking LLMs not only to suggest priors but also to verify and reflect on their choices. We evaluated Claude Opus, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and ChatGPT-4o-mini on two real datasets: heart disease risk and concrete strength. All LLMs correctly identified the direction for all associations (e.g., that heart disease risk is higher for males). The quality of suggested priors was measured by their Kullback-Leibler divergence from the maximum likelihood estimator's distribution. The LLMs suggested both moderately and weakly informative priors. The moderate priors were often overconfident, resulting in distributions misaligned with the data. In our experiments, Claude and Gemini provided better priors than ChatGPT. For weakly informative priors, a key performance difference emerged: ChatGPT and Gemini defaulted to an "unnecessarily vague" mean of 0, while Claude did not, demonstrating a significant advantage. The ability of LLMs to identify correct associations shows their great potential as an efficient, objective method for developing informative priors. However, the primary challenge remains in calibrating the width of these priors to avoid over- and under-confidence.


ScienceBoard: Evaluating Multimodal Autonomous Agents in Realistic Scientific Workflows

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have extended their impact beyond Natural Language Processing, substantially fostering the development of interdisciplinary research. Recently, various LLM-based agents have been developed to assist scientific discovery progress across multiple aspects and domains. Among these, computer-using agents, capable of interacting with operating systems as humans do, are paving the way to automated scientific problem-solving and addressing routines in researchers' workflows. Recognizing the transformative potential of these agents, we introduce ScienceBoard, which encompasses two complementary contributions: (i) a realistic, multi-domain environment featuring dynamic and visually rich scientific workflows with integrated professional software, where agents can autonomously interact via different interfaces to accelerate complex research tasks and experiments; and (ii) a challenging benchmark of 169 high-quality, rigorously validated real-world tasks curated by humans, spanning scientific-discovery workflows in domains such as biochemistry, astronomy, and geoinformatics. Extensive evaluations of agents with state-of-the-art backbones (e.g., GPT-4o, Claude 3.7, UI-TARS) show that, despite some promising results, they still fall short of reliably assisting scientists in complex workflows, achieving only a 15% overall success rate. In-depth analysis further provides valuable insights for addressing current agent limitations and more effective design principles, paving the way to build more capable agents for scientific discovery. Our code, environment, and benchmark are at https://qiushisun.github.io/ScienceBoard-Home/.


Epistemic Artificial Intelligence is Essential for Machine Learning Models to Truly 'Know When They Do Not Know'

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite AI's impressive achievements, including recent advances in generative and large language models, there remains a significant gap in the ability of AI systems to handle uncertainty and generalize beyond their training data. AI models consistently fail to make robust enough predictions when facing unfamiliar or adversarial data. Traditional machine learning approaches struggle to address this issue, due to an overemphasis on data fitting, while current uncertainty quantification approaches suffer from serious limitations. This position paper posits a paradigm shift towards epistemic artificial intelligence, emphasizing the need for models to learn from what they know while at the same time acknowledging their ignorance, using the mathematics of second-order uncertainty measures. This approach, which leverages the expressive power of such measures to efficiently manage uncertainty, offers an effective way to improve the resilience and robustness of AI systems, allowing them to better handle unpredictable real-world environments.


Offensive Language Detection on Social Media Using XLNet

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The widespread use of text-based communication on social media-through chats, comments, and microblogs-has improved user interaction but has also led to an increase in offensive content, including hate speech, racism, and other forms of abuse. Due to the enormous volume of user-generated content, manual moderation is impractical, which creates a need for automated systems that can detect offensive language. Deep learning models, particularly those using transfer learning, have demonstrated significant success in understanding natural language through large-scale pretraining. In this study, we propose an automatic offensive language detection model based on XLNet, a generalized autoregressive pretraining method, and compare its performance with BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers), which is a widely used baseline in natural language processing (NLP). Both models are evaluated using the Offensive Language Identification Dataset (OLID), a benchmark Twitter dataset that includes hierarchical annotations. Our experimental results show that XLNet outperforms BERT in detecting offensive content and in categorizing the types of offenses, while BERT performs slightly better in identifying the targets of the offenses. Additionally, we find that oversampling and undersampling strategies are effective in addressing class imbalance and improving classification performance. These findings highlight the potential of transfer learning and XLNet-based architectures to create robust systems for detecting offensive language on social media platforms.


Beyond Reactive Safety: Risk-Aware LLM Alignment via Long-Horizon Simulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Given the growing influence of language model-based agents on high-stakes societal decisions, from public policy to healthcare, ensuring their beneficial impact requires understanding the far-reaching implications of their suggestions. We propose a proof-of-concept framework that projects how model-generated advice could propagate through societal systems on a macroscopic scale over time, enabling more robust alignment. To assess the long-term safety awareness of language models, we also introduce a dataset of 100 indirect harm scenarios, testing models' ability to foresee adverse, non-obvious outcomes from seemingly harmless user prompts. Our approach achieves not only over 20% improvement on the new dataset but also an average win rate exceeding 70% against strong baselines on existing safety benchmarks (AdvBench, SafeRLHF, WildGuardMix), suggesting a promising direction for safer agents.