Deep neural networks have demonstrated remarkable performance across numerous learning tasks but often suffer from miscalibration, resulting in unreliable probability outputs. This has inspired many recent works on mitigating miscalibration, particularly through post-hoc recalibration methods that aim to obtain calibrated probabilities without sacrificing the classification performance of pre-trained models. In this study, we summarize and categorize previous works into three general strategies: intuitively designed methods, binning-based methods, and methods based on formulations of ideal calibration. Through theoretical and practical analysis, we highlight ten common limitations in previous approaches. To address these limitations, we propose a probabilistic learning framework for calibration called h-calibration, which theoretically constructs an equivalent learning formulation for canonical calibration with boundedness. On this basis, we design a simple yet effective post-hoc calibration algorithm. Our method not only overcomes the ten identified limitations but also achieves markedly better performance than traditional methods, as validated by extensive experiments. We further analyze, both theoretically and experimentally, the relationship and advantages of our learning objective compared to traditional proper scoring rule. In summary, our probabilistic framework derives an approximately equivalent differentiable objective for learning error-bounded calibrated probabilities, elucidating the correspondence and convergence properties of computational statistics with respect to theoretical bounds in canonical calibration. The theoretical effectiveness is verified on standard post-hoc calibration benchmarks by achieving state-of-the-art performance. This research offers valuable reference for learning reliable likelihood in related fields.

The task of statistical inference, which includes the building of confidence intervals and tests for parameters and effects of interest to a researcher, is still an open area of investigation in a differentially private (DP) setting. Indeed, in addition to the randomness due to data sampling, DP delivers another source of randomness consisting of the noise added to protect an individual's data from being disclosed to a potential attacker. As a result of this convolution of noises, in many cases it is too complicated to determine the stochastic behavior of the statistics and parameters resulting from a DP procedure. In this work, we contribute to this line of investigation by employing a simulation-based matching approach, solved through tools from the fiducial framework, which aims to replicate the data generation pipeline (including the DP step) and retrieve an approximate distribution of the estimates resulting from this pipeline. For this purpose, we focus on the analysis of categorical (nominal) data that is common in national surveys, for which sensitivity is naturally defined, and on additive privacy mechanisms. We prove the validity of the proposed approach in terms of coverage and highlight its good computational and statistical performance for different inferential tasks in simulated and applied data settings.

Recent variational Bayes methods for geospatial regression, proposed as an alternative to computationally expensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, have leveraged Nearest Neighbor Gaussian processes (NNGP) to achieve scalability. Yet, these variational methods remain inferior in accuracy and speed compared to spNNGP, the state-of-the-art MCMC-based software for NNGP. We introduce spVarBayes, a suite of fast variational Bayesian approaches for large-scale geospatial data analysis using NNGP. Our contributions are primarily computational. We replace auto-differentiation with a combination of calculus of variations, closed-form gradient updates, and linear response corrections for improved variance estimation. We also accommodate covariates (fixed effects) in the model and offer inference on the variance parameters. Simulation experiments demonstrate that we achieve comparable accuracy to spNNGP but with reduced computational costs, and considerably outperform existing variational inference methods in terms of both accuracy and speed. Analysis of a large forest canopy height dataset illustrates the practical implementation of proposed methods and shows that the inference results are consistent with those obtained from the MCMC approach. The proposed methods are implemented in publicly available Github R-package spVarBayes.

We introduce a new framework of episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with adversarial preferences, which we refer to as preference-based MDPs (PbMDPs). Unlike standard episodic MDPs with adversarial losses, where the numerical value of the loss is directly observed, in PbMDPs the learner instead observes preferences between two candidate arms, which represent the choices being compared. In this work, we focus specifically on the setting where the reward functions are determined by Borda scores. We begin by establishing a regret lower bound for PbMDPs with Borda scores. As a preliminary step, we present a simple instance to prove a lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{HSAT})$ for episodic MDPs with adversarial losses, where $H$ is the number of steps per episode, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the number of episodes. Leveraging this construction, we then derive a regret lower bound of $Ω( (H^2 S K)^{1/3} T^{2/3} )$ for PbMDPs with Borda scores, where $K$ is the number of arms. Next, we develop algorithms that achieve a regret bound of order $T^{2/3}$. We first propose a global optimization approach based on online linear optimization over the set of all occupancy measures, achieving a regret bound of $\tilde{O}((H^2 S^2 K)^{1/3} T^{2/3} )$ under known transitions. However, this approach suffers from suboptimal dependence on the potentially large number of states $S$ and computational inefficiency. To address this, we propose a policy optimization algorithm whose regret is roughly bounded by $\tilde{O}( (H^6 S K^5)^{1/3} T^{2/3} )$ under known transitions, and further extend the result to the unknown-transition setting.

The epidemic failure of replicability across empirical science and machine learning has recently motivated the formal study of replicable learning algorithms [Impagliazzo et al. (2022)]. In batch settings where data comes from a fixed i.i.d. source (e.g., hypothesis testing, supervised learning), the design of data-efficient replicable algorithms is now more or less understood. In contrast, there remain significant gaps in our knowledge for control settings like reinforcement learning where an agent must interact directly with a shifting environment. Karbasi et. al show that with access to a generative model of an environment with $S$ states and $A$ actions (the RL 'batch setting'), replicably learning a near-optimal policy costs only $\tilde{O}(S^2A^2)$ samples. On the other hand, the best upper bound without a generative model jumps to $\tilde{O}(S^7 A^7)$ [Eaton et al. (2024)] due to the substantial difficulty of environment exploration. This gap raises a key question in the broader theory of replicability: Is replicable exploration inherently more expensive than batch learning? Is sample-efficient replicable RL even possible? In this work, we (nearly) resolve this problem (for low-horizon tabular MDPs): exploration is not a significant barrier to replicable learning! Our main result is a replicable RL algorithm on $\tilde{O}(S^2A)$ samples, bridging the gap between the generative and episodic settings. We complement this with a matching $\tildeΩ(S^2A)$ lower bound in the generative setting (under the common parallel sampling assumption) and an unconditional lower bound in the episodic setting of $\tildeΩ(S^2)$ showcasing the near-optimality of our algorithm with respect to the state space $S$.

As privacy regulations become more stringent and access to real-world data becomes increasingly constrained, synthetic data generation has emerged as a vital solution, especially for tabular datasets, which are central to domains like finance, healthcare and the social sciences. This survey presents a comprehensive and focused review of recent advances in synthetic tabular data generation, emphasizing methods that preserve complex feature relationships, maintain statistical fidelity, and satisfy privacy requirements. A key contribution of this work is the introduction of a novel taxonomy based on practical generation objectives, including intended downstream applications, privacy guarantees, and data utility, directly informing methodological design and evaluation strategies. Therefore, this review prioritizes the actionable goals that drive synthetic data creation, including conditional generation and risk-sensitive modeling. Additionally, the survey proposes a benchmark framework to align technical innovation with real-world demands. By bridging theoretical foundations with practical deployment, this work serves as both a roadmap for future research and a guide for implementing synthetic tabular data in privacy-critical environments.

The ability to perform reliable long-horizon task planning is crucial for deploying robots in real-world environments. However, directly employing Large Language Models (LLMs) as action sequence generators often results in low success rates due to their limited reasoning ability for long-horizon embodied tasks. In the STEP framework, we construct a subgoal tree through a pair of closed-loop models: a subgoal decomposition model and a leaf node termination model. Within this framework, we develop a hierarchical tree structure that spans from coarse to fine resolutions. The subgoal decomposition model leverages a foundation LLM to break down complex goals into manageable subgoals, thereby spanning the subgoal tree. The leaf node termination model provides real-time feedback based on environmental states, determining when to terminate the tree spanning and ensuring each leaf node can be directly converted into a primitive action. Experiments conducted in both the VirtualHome WAH-NL benchmark and on real robots demonstrate that STEP achieves long-horizon embodied task completion with success rates up to 34% (WAH-NL) and 25% (real robot) outperforming SOTA methods.

Legged machines are becoming increasingly agile and adaptive but they have so far lacked the morphological diversity of legged animals, which have been rearranged and reshaped to fill millions of niches. Unlike their biological counterparts, legged machines have largely converged over the past decade to canonical quadrupedal and bipedal architectures that cannot be easily reconfigured to meet new tasks or recover from injury. Here we introduce autonomous modular legs: agile yet minimal, single-degree-of-freedom jointed links that can learn complex dynamic behaviors and may be freely attached to form legged metamachines at the meter scale. This enables rapid repair, redesign, and recombination of highly-dynamic modular agents that move quickly and acrobatically (non-quasistatically) through unstructured environments. Because each module is itself a complete agent, legged metamachines are able to sustain deep structural damage that would completely disable other legged robots. We also show how to encode the vast space of possible body configurations into a compact latent design genome that can be efficiently explored, revealing a wide diversity of novel legged forms.

Modern deep neural networks are powerful predictive tools yet often lack valid inference for causal parameters, such as treatment effects or entire survival curves. While frameworks like Double Machine Learning (DML) and Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) can debias machine-learning fits, existing neural implementations either rely on "targeted losses" that do not guarantee solving the efficient influence function equation or computationally expensive post-hoc "fluctuations" for multi-parameter settings. We propose Targeted Deep Architectures (TDA), a new framework that embeds TMLE directly into the network's parameter space with no restrictions on the backbone architecture. Specifically, TDA partitions model parameters - freezing all but a small "targeting" subset - and iteratively updates them along a targeting gradient, derived from projecting the influence functions onto the span of the gradients of the loss with respect to weights. This procedure yields plug-in estimates that remove first-order bias and produce asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Crucially, TDA easily extends to multi-dimensional causal estimands (e.g., entire survival curves) by merging separate targeting gradients into a single universal targeting update. Theoretically, TDA inherits classical TMLE properties, including double robustness and semiparametric efficiency. Empirically, on the benchmark IHDP dataset (average treatment effects) and simulated survival data with informative censoring, TDA reduces bias and improves coverage relative to both standard neural-network estimators and prior post-hoc approaches. In doing so, TDA establishes a direct, scalable pathway toward rigorous causal inference within modern deep architectures for complex multi-parameter targets.

In many critical applications, resource constraints limit the amount of information that can be gathered to make predictions. For example, in healthcare, patient data often spans diverse features ranging from lab tests to imaging studies. Each feature may carry different information and must be acquired at a respective cost of time, money, or risk to the patient. Moreover, temporal prediction tasks, where both instance features and labels evolve over time, introduce additional complexity in deciding when or what information is important. In this work, we propose NOCTA, a Non-Greedy Objective Cost-Tradeoff Acquisition method that sequentially acquires the most informative features at inference time while accounting for both temporal dynamics and acquisition cost. We first introduce a cohesive estimation target for our NOCTA setting, and then develop two complementary estimators: 1) a non-parametric method based on nearest neighbors to guide the acquisition (NOCTA-NP), and 2) a parametric method that directly predicts the utility of potential acquisitions (NOCTA-P). Experiments on synthetic and real-world medical datasets demonstrate that both NOCTA variants outperform existing baselines.