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 Learning Graphical Models


Reinforcement Learning from Adversarial Preferences in Tabular MDPs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a new framework of episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with adversarial preferences, which we refer to as preference-based MDPs (PbMDPs). Unlike standard episodic MDPs with adversarial losses, where the numerical value of the loss is directly observed, in PbMDPs the learner instead observes preferences between two candidate arms, which represent the choices being compared. In this work, we focus specifically on the setting where the reward functions are determined by Borda scores. We begin by establishing a regret lower bound for PbMDPs with Borda scores. As a preliminary step, we present a simple instance to prove a lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{HSAT})$ for episodic MDPs with adversarial losses, where $H$ is the number of steps per episode, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the number of episodes. Leveraging this construction, we then derive a regret lower bound of $Ω( (H^2 S K)^{1/3} T^{2/3} )$ for PbMDPs with Borda scores, where $K$ is the number of arms. Next, we develop algorithms that achieve a regret bound of order $T^{2/3}$. We first propose a global optimization approach based on online linear optimization over the set of all occupancy measures, achieving a regret bound of $\tilde{O}((H^2 S^2 K)^{1/3} T^{2/3} )$ under known transitions. However, this approach suffers from suboptimal dependence on the potentially large number of states $S$ and computational inefficiency. To address this, we propose a policy optimization algorithm whose regret is roughly bounded by $\tilde{O}( (H^6 S K^5)^{1/3} T^{2/3} )$ under known transitions, and further extend the result to the unknown-transition setting.


From Generative to Episodic: Sample-Efficient Replicable Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The epidemic failure of replicability across empirical science and machine learning has recently motivated the formal study of replicable learning algorithms [Impagliazzo et al. (2022)]. In batch settings where data comes from a fixed i.i.d. source (e.g., hypothesis testing, supervised learning), the design of data-efficient replicable algorithms is now more or less understood. In contrast, there remain significant gaps in our knowledge for control settings like reinforcement learning where an agent must interact directly with a shifting environment. Karbasi et. al show that with access to a generative model of an environment with $S$ states and $A$ actions (the RL 'batch setting'), replicably learning a near-optimal policy costs only $\tilde{O}(S^2A^2)$ samples. On the other hand, the best upper bound without a generative model jumps to $\tilde{O}(S^7 A^7)$ [Eaton et al. (2024)] due to the substantial difficulty of environment exploration. This gap raises a key question in the broader theory of replicability: Is replicable exploration inherently more expensive than batch learning? Is sample-efficient replicable RL even possible? In this work, we (nearly) resolve this problem (for low-horizon tabular MDPs): exploration is not a significant barrier to replicable learning! Our main result is a replicable RL algorithm on $\tilde{O}(S^2A)$ samples, bridging the gap between the generative and episodic settings. We complement this with a matching $\tildeΩ(S^2A)$ lower bound in the generative setting (under the common parallel sampling assumption) and an unconditional lower bound in the episodic setting of $\tildeΩ(S^2)$ showcasing the near-optimality of our algorithm with respect to the state space $S$.


Synthetic Tabular Data Generation: A Comparative Survey for Modern Techniques

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As privacy regulations become more stringent and access to real-world data becomes increasingly constrained, synthetic data generation has emerged as a vital solution, especially for tabular datasets, which are central to domains like finance, healthcare and the social sciences. This survey presents a comprehensive and focused review of recent advances in synthetic tabular data generation, emphasizing methods that preserve complex feature relationships, maintain statistical fidelity, and satisfy privacy requirements. A key contribution of this work is the introduction of a novel taxonomy based on practical generation objectives, including intended downstream applications, privacy guarantees, and data utility, directly informing methodological design and evaluation strategies. Therefore, this review prioritizes the actionable goals that drive synthetic data creation, including conditional generation and risk-sensitive modeling. Additionally, the survey proposes a benchmark framework to align technical innovation with real-world demands. By bridging theoretical foundations with practical deployment, this work serves as both a roadmap for future research and a guide for implementing synthetic tabular data in privacy-critical environments.


STEP Planner: Constructing cross-hierarchical subgoal tree as an embodied long-horizon task planner

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The ability to perform reliable long-horizon task planning is crucial for deploying robots in real-world environments. However, directly employing Large Language Models (LLMs) as action sequence generators often results in low success rates due to their limited reasoning ability for long-horizon embodied tasks. In the STEP framework, we construct a subgoal tree through a pair of closed-loop models: a subgoal decomposition model and a leaf node termination model. Within this framework, we develop a hierarchical tree structure that spans from coarse to fine resolutions. The subgoal decomposition model leverages a foundation LLM to break down complex goals into manageable subgoals, thereby spanning the subgoal tree. The leaf node termination model provides real-time feedback based on environmental states, determining when to terminate the tree spanning and ensuring each leaf node can be directly converted into a primitive action. Experiments conducted in both the VirtualHome WAH-NL benchmark and on real robots demonstrate that STEP achieves long-horizon embodied task completion with success rates up to 34% (WAH-NL) and 25% (real robot) outperforming SOTA methods.


Reconfigurable legged metamachines that run on autonomous modular legs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Legged machines are becoming increasingly agile and adaptive but they have so far lacked the morphological diversity of legged animals, which have been rearranged and reshaped to fill millions of niches. Unlike their biological counterparts, legged machines have largely converged over the past decade to canonical quadrupedal and bipedal architectures that cannot be easily reconfigured to meet new tasks or recover from injury. Here we introduce autonomous modular legs: agile yet minimal, single-degree-of-freedom jointed links that can learn complex dynamic behaviors and may be freely attached to form legged metamachines at the meter scale. This enables rapid repair, redesign, and recombination of highly-dynamic modular agents that move quickly and acrobatically (non-quasistatically) through unstructured environments. Because each module is itself a complete agent, legged metamachines are able to sustain deep structural damage that would completely disable other legged robots. We also show how to encode the vast space of possible body configurations into a compact latent design genome that can be efficiently explored, revealing a wide diversity of novel legged forms.


Targeted Deep Architectures: A TMLE-Based Framework for Robust Causal Inference in Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern deep neural networks are powerful predictive tools yet often lack valid inference for causal parameters, such as treatment effects or entire survival curves. While frameworks like Double Machine Learning (DML) and Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) can debias machine-learning fits, existing neural implementations either rely on "targeted losses" that do not guarantee solving the efficient influence function equation or computationally expensive post-hoc "fluctuations" for multi-parameter settings. We propose Targeted Deep Architectures (TDA), a new framework that embeds TMLE directly into the network's parameter space with no restrictions on the backbone architecture. Specifically, TDA partitions model parameters - freezing all but a small "targeting" subset - and iteratively updates them along a targeting gradient, derived from projecting the influence functions onto the span of the gradients of the loss with respect to weights. This procedure yields plug-in estimates that remove first-order bias and produce asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Crucially, TDA easily extends to multi-dimensional causal estimands (e.g., entire survival curves) by merging separate targeting gradients into a single universal targeting update. Theoretically, TDA inherits classical TMLE properties, including double robustness and semiparametric efficiency. Empirically, on the benchmark IHDP dataset (average treatment effects) and simulated survival data with informative censoring, TDA reduces bias and improves coverage relative to both standard neural-network estimators and prior post-hoc approaches. In doing so, TDA establishes a direct, scalable pathway toward rigorous causal inference within modern deep architectures for complex multi-parameter targets.


NOCTA: Non-Greedy Objective Cost-Tradeoff Acquisition for Longitudinal Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In many critical applications, resource constraints limit the amount of information that can be gathered to make predictions. For example, in healthcare, patient data often spans diverse features ranging from lab tests to imaging studies. Each feature may carry different information and must be acquired at a respective cost of time, money, or risk to the patient. Moreover, temporal prediction tasks, where both instance features and labels evolve over time, introduce additional complexity in deciding when or what information is important. In this work, we propose NOCTA, a Non-Greedy Objective Cost-Tradeoff Acquisition method that sequentially acquires the most informative features at inference time while accounting for both temporal dynamics and acquisition cost. We first introduce a cohesive estimation target for our NOCTA setting, and then develop two complementary estimators: 1) a non-parametric method based on nearest neighbors to guide the acquisition (NOCTA-NP), and 2) a parametric method that directly predicts the utility of potential acquisitions (NOCTA-P). Experiments on synthetic and real-world medical datasets demonstrate that both NOCTA variants outperform existing baselines.


Partially Observable Reference Policy Programming: Solving POMDPs Sans Numerical Optimisation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes Partially Observable Reference Policy Programming, a novel anytime online approximate POMDP solver which samples meaningful future histories very deeply while simultaneously forcing a gradual policy update. We provide theoretical guarantees for the algorithm's underlying scheme which say that the performance loss is bounded by the average of the sampling approximation errors rather than the usual maximum, a crucial requirement given the sampling sparsity of online planning. Empirical evaluations on two large-scale problems with dynamically evolving environments -- including a helicopter emergency scenario in the Corsica region requiring approximately 150 planning steps -- corroborate the theoretical results and indicate that our solver considerably outperforms current online benchmarks.


Fast and Scalable Game-Theoretic Trajectory Planning with Intentional Uncertainties

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trajectory planning involving multi-agent interactions has been a long-standing challenge in the field of robotics, primarily burdened by the inherent yet intricate interactions among agents. While game-theoretic methods are widely acknowledged for their effectiveness in managing multi-agent interactions, significant impediments persist when it comes to accommodating the intentional uncertainties of agents. In the context of intentional uncertainties, the heavy computational burdens associated with existing game-theoretic methods are induced, leading to inefficiencies and poor scalability. In this paper, we propose a novel game-theoretic interactive trajectory planning method to effectively address the intentional uncertainties of agents, and it demonstrates both high efficiency and enhanced scalability. As the underpinning basis, we model the interactions between agents under intentional uncertainties as a general Bayesian game, and we show that its agent-form equivalence can be represented as a potential game under certain minor assumptions. The existence and attainability of the optimal interactive trajectories are illustrated, as the corresponding Bayesian Nash equilibrium can be attained by optimizing a unified optimization problem. Additionally, we present a distributed algorithm based on the dual consensus alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) tailored to the parallel solving of the problem, thereby significantly improving the scalability. The attendant outcomes from simulations and experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is effective across a range of scenarios characterized by general forms of intentional uncertainties. Its scalability surpasses that of existing centralized and decentralized baselines, allowing for real-time interactive trajectory planning in uncertain game settings.


Predicting Delayed Trajectories Using Network Features: A Study on the Dutch Railway Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Dutch railway network is one of the busiest in the world, with delays being a prominent concern for the principal passenger railway operator NS. This research addresses a gap in delay prediction studies within the Dutch railway network by employing an XGBoost Classifier with a focus on topological features. Current research predominantly emphasizes short-term predictions and neglects the broader network-wide patterns essential for mitigating ripple effects. This research implements and improves an existing methodology, originally designed to forecast the evolution of the fast-changing US air network, to predict delays in the Dutch Railways. By integrating Node Centrality Measures and comparing multiple classifiers like RandomForest, DecisionTree, GradientBoosting, AdaBoost, and LogisticRegression, the goal is to predict delayed trajectories. However, the results reveal limited performance, especially in non-simultaneous testing scenarios, suggesting the necessity for more context-specific adaptations. Regardless, this research contributes to the understanding of transportation network evaluation and proposes future directions for developing more robust predictive models for delays.