Graphs have been commonly used to represent complex data structures. In models dealing with graph-structured data, multivariate parameters may not only exhibit sparse patterns but have structured sparsity and smoothness in the sense that both zero and non-zero parameters tend to cluster together. We propose a new prior for high-dimensional parameters with graphical relations, referred to as the Treebased Low-rank Horseshoe (T-LoHo) model, that generalizes the popular univariate Bayesian horseshoe shrinkage prior to the multivariate setting to detect structured sparsity and smoothness simultaneously. The T-LoHo prior can be embedded in many high-dimensional hierarchical models. To illustrate its utility, we apply it to regularize a Bayesian high-dimensional regression problem where the regression coefficients are linked by a graph, so that the resulting clusters have flexible shapes and satisfy the cluster contiguity constraint with respect to the graph. We design an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers full Bayesian inference with uncertainty measures for model parameters such as the number of clusters. We offer theoretical investigations of the clustering effects and posterior concentration results. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the model with simulation studies and a real data application for anomaly detection on a road network. The results indicate substantial improvements over other competing methods such as the sparse fused lasso.

Much of reinforcement learning theory is built on top of oracles that are computationally hard to implement. Specifically for learning near-optimal policies in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), existing algorithms either need to make strong assumptions about the model dynamics (e.g.

Much of reinforcement learning theory is built on top of oracles that are computationally hard to implement. Specifically for learning near-optimal policies in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), existing algorithms either need to make strong assumptions about the model dynamics (e.g.

We show that Deep Neural Networks introduce two heteroscedastic Gumbel noise sources into Q-Learning. To account for these noise sources, we propose Double Gumbel Q-Learning, a Deep Q-Learning algorithm applicable for both discrete and continuous control. In discrete control, we derive a closed-form expression for the loss function of our algorithm. In continuous control, this loss function is intractable and we therefore derive an approximation with a hyperparameter whose value regulates pessimism in Q-Learning. We present a default value for our pessimism hyperparameter that enables DoubleGum to outperform DDPG, TD3, SAC, XQL, quantile regression, and Mixture-of-Gaussian Critics in aggregate over 33 tasks from DeepMind Control, MuJoCo, MetaWorld, and Box2D and show that tuning this hyperparameter may further improve sample efficiency.

We investigate a stochastic counterpart of majority votes over finite ensembles of classifiers, and study its generalization properties. While our approach holds for arbitrary distributions, we instantiate it with Dirichlet distributions: this allows for a closed-form and differentiable expression for the expected risk, which then turns the generalization bound into a tractable training objective. The resulting stochastic majority vote learning algorithm achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and benefits from (non-vacuous) tight generalization bounds, in a series of numerical experiments when compared to competing algorithms which also minimize PACBayes objectives - both with uninformed (data-independent) and informed (datadependent) priors.

We investigate the parameterized complexity of Bayesian Network Structure Learn-1 ing (BNSL), a classical problem that has received significant attention in empirical2 but also purely theoretical studies. We follow up on previous works that have3 analyzed the complexity of BNSL w.r.t. the so-called superstructure of the input.4 While known results imply that BNSL is unlikely to be fixed-parameter tractable5 even when parameterized by the size of a vertex cover in the superstructure, here we6 show that a different kind of parameterization--notably by the size of a feedback7 edge set--yields fixed-parameter tractability. We proceed by showing that this8 result can be strengthened to a localized version of the feedback edge set, and9 provide corresponding lower bounds that complement previous results to provide a10 complexity classification of BNSL w.r.t.

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for discrete statistical models, which can find exact solutions to a large class of discrete inference problems, even with infinite support and continuous priors. To express such models, we introduce a probabilistic programming language that supports discrete and continuous sampling, discrete observations, affine functions, (stochastic) branching, and conditioning on discrete events. Our key tool is probability generating functions: they provide a compact closed-form representation of distributions that are definable by programs, thus enabling the exact computation of posterior probabilities, expectation, variance, and higher moments. Our inference method is provably correct and fully automated in a tool called Genfer, which uses automatic differentiation (specifically, Taylor polynomials), but does not require computer algebra. Our experiments show that Genfer is often faster than the existing exact inference tools PSI, Dice, and Prodigy. On a range of real-world inference problems that none of these exact tools can solve, Genfer's performance is competitive with approximate Monte Carlo methods, while avoiding approximation errors.