Probabilistic graphical modeling is a branch of machine learning that uses probability distributions to describe the world, make predictions, and support decision-making under uncertainty. Underlying this modeling framework is an elegant body of theory that bridges two mathematical traditions: probability and graph theory. This framework provides compact yet expressive representations of joint probability distributions, yielding powerful generative models for probabilistic reasoning. This tutorial provides a concise introduction to the formalisms, methods, and applications of this modeling framework. After a review of basic probability and graph theory, we explore three dominant themes: (1) the representation of multivariate distributions in the intuitive visual language of graphs, (2) algorithms for learning model parameters and graphical structures from data, and (3) algorithms for inference, both exact and approximate.

--Smart electric wheelchairs can improve user experience by supporting the driver with shared control. State-of-the-art work showed the potential of shared control in improving safety in navigation for non-holonomic robots. However, for holonomic systems, current approaches often lead to unintuitive behavior for the user and fail to utilize the full potential of omnidirectional driving. Therefore, we propose a reinforcement learning-based method, which takes a 2D user input and outputs a 3D motion while ensuring user comfort and reducing cognitive load on the driver . Our approach is trained in Isaac Gym and tested in simulation in Gazebo. We compare different RL agent architectures and reward functions based on metrics considering cognitive load and user comfort. We show that our method ensures collision-free navigation while smartly orienting the wheelchair and showing better or competitive smoothness compared to a previous non-learning-based method. We further perform a sim-to-real transfer and demonstrate, to the best of our knowledge, the first real-world implementation of RL-based shared control for an omnidirectional mobility platform.

This PhD thesis presents a distributional view of optimization in place of a worst-case perspective. We motivate this view with an investigation of the failure point of classical optimization. Subsequently we consider the optimization of a randomly drawn objective function. This is the setting of Bayesian Optimization. After a review of Bayesian optimization we outline how such a distributional view may explain predictable progress of optimization in high dimension. It further turns out that this distributional view provides insights into optimal step size control of gradient descent. To enable these results, we develop mathematical tools to deal with random input to random functions and a characterization of non-stationary isotropic covariance kernels. Finally, we outline how assumptions about the data, specifically exchangability, can lead to random objective functions in machine learning and analyze their landscape.

Conformal prediction (CP) is an Uncertainty Representation technique that delivers finite-sample calibrated prediction regions for any underlying Machine Learning model. Its status as an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) tool, though, has remained conceptually opaque: While Conformal Prediction Regions (CPRs) give an ordinal representation of uncertainty (larger regions typically indicate higher uncertainty), they lack the capability to cardinally quantify it (twice as large regions do not imply twice the uncertainty). We adopt a category-theoretic approach to CP -- framing it as a morphism, embedded in a commuting diagram, of two newly-defined categories -- that brings us three joys. First, we show that -- under minimal assumptions -- CP is intrinsically a UQ mechanism, that is, its cardinal UQ capabilities are a structural feature of the method. Second, we demonstrate that CP bridges (and perhaps subsumes) the Bayesian, frequentist, and imprecise probabilistic approaches to predictive statistical reasoning. Finally, we show that a CPR is the image of a covariant functor. This observation is relevant to AI privacy: It implies that privacy noise added locally does not break the global coverage guarantee.

Regularized linear discriminant analysis (RLDA) is a widely used tool for classification and dimensionality reduction, but its performance in high-dimensional scenarios is inconsistent. Existing theoretical analyses of RLDA often lack clear insight into how data structure affects classification performance. To address this issue, we derive a non-asymptotic approximation of the misclassification rate and thus analyze the structural effect and structural adjustment strategies of RLDA. Based on this, we propose the Spectral Enhanced Discriminant Analysis (SEDA) algorithm, which optimizes the data structure by adjusting the spiked eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix. By developing a new theoretical result on eigenvectors in random matrix theory, we derive an asymptotic approximation on the misclassification rate of SEDA. The bias correction algorithm and parameter selection strategy are then obtained. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that SEDA achieves higher classification accuracy and dimensionality reduction compared to existing LDA methods.

Personal use of this material is permitted. Abstract --Efficient planning of activities is essential for modern industrial assembly lines to uphold manufacturing standards, prevent project constraint violations, and achieve cost-effective operations. While exact solutions to such challenges can be obtained through Integer Programming (IP), the dependence of the search space on input parameters often makes IP computationally infeasible for large-scale scenarios. Heuristic methods, such as Genetic Algorithms, can also be applied, but they frequently produce suboptimal solutions in extensive cases. This paper introduces a novel mathematical model of a generic industrial assembly line formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), without imposing assumptions on the type of assembly line a notable distinction from most existing models. The proposed model is employed to create a virtual environment for training Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agents to optimize task and resource scheduling. T o enhance the efficiency of agent training, the paper proposes two innovative tools. The first is an action-masking technique, which ensures the agent selects only feasible actions, thereby reducing training time. The second is a multi-agent approach, where each workstation is managed by an individual agent, as a result, the state and action spaces were reduced. A centralized training framework with decentralized execution is adopted, offering a scalable learning architecture for optimizing industrial assembly lines. This framework allows the agents to learn offline and subsequently provide real-time solutions during operations by leveraging a neural network that maps the current factory state to the optimal action. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme is validated through numerical simulations, demonstrating significantly faster convergence to the optimal solution compared to a comparable model-based approach.

This thesis advances the computational understanding and manipulation of text styles through three interconnected pillars: (1) Text Style Transfer (TST), which alters stylistic properties (e.g., sentiment, formality) while preserving content; (2)Authorship Attribution (AA), identifying the author of a text via stylistic fingerprints; and (3) Authorship V erification (A V), determining whether two texts share the same authorship. We address critical challenges in these areas by leveraging parameter-efficient adaptation of large language models (LLMs), contrastive disentanglement of stylistic features, and instruction-based fine-tuning for explainable verification. First, for TST, we conduct a comprehensive survey and reproducibility study of 19 state-of-the-art algorithms, establishing benchmarks across diverse datasets. Building on these insights, we introduce LLM-Adapters, a unified framework for parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) that enables cost-effective adaptation of LLMs for style-centric tasks. This culminates in Adapter-TST, a novel architecture that models multiple stylistic attributes (e.g., sentiment, tense) using lightweight neural adapters. Adapter-TST achieves superior performance in multi-attribute transfer and compositional editing while reducing computational costs by 80% compared to full fine-tuning. For AA, we propose ContrastDistAA, a contrastive learning framework that disentangles content and style features to address performance degradation under topic shifts. Our method advances both individual-level attribution and regional linguistic analysis, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy by isolating culturally influenced stylistic patterns.

This study evaluated the probability and uncertainty forecasts of five recently proposed Bayesian deep learning methods relative to a deterministic residual neural network (ResNet) baseline for 0-1 h convective initiation (CI) nowcasting using GOES-16 satellite infrared observations. Uncertainty was assessed by how well probabilistic forecasts were calibrated and how well uncertainty separated forecasts with large and small errors. Most of the Bayesian deep learning methods produced probabilistic forecasts that outperformed the deterministic ResNet, with one, the initial-weights ensemble + Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, an ensemble of deterministic ResNets with different initial weights to start training and dropout activated during inference, producing the most skillful and well-calibrated forecasts. The initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout benefited from generating multiple solutions that more thoroughly sampled the hypothesis space. The Bayesian ResNet ensemble was the only one that performed worse than the deterministic ResNet at longer lead times, likely due to the challenge of optimizing a larger number of parameters. To address this issue, the Bayesian-MOPED (MOdel Priors with Empirical Bayes using Deep neural network) ResNet ensemble was adopted, and it enhanced forecast skill by constraining the hypothesis search near the deterministic ResNet hypothesis. All Bayesian methods demonstrated well-calibrated uncertainty and effectively separated cases with large and small errors. In case studies, the initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout demonstrated better forecast skill than the Bayesian-MOPED ensemble and the deterministic ResNet on selected CI events in clear-sky regions. However, the initial-weights ensemble + MC dropout exhibited poorer generalization in clear-sky and anvil cloud regions without CI occurrence compared to the deterministic ResNet and Bayesian-MOPED ensemble.

A common approach for handling missing values in data analysis pipelines is multiple imputation via software packages such as MICE (Van Buuren and Groothuis-Oudshoorn, 2011) and Amelia (Honaker et al., 2011). These packages typically assume the data are missing at random (MAR), and impose parametric or smoothing assumptions upon the imputing distributions in a way that allows imputation to proceed even if not all missingness patterns have support in the data. Such assumptions are unrealistic in practice, and induce model misspecification bias on any analysis performed after such imputation. In this paper, we provide a principled alternative. Specifically, we develop a new characterization for the full data law in graphical models of missing data. This characterization is constructive, is easily adapted for the calculation of imputation distributions for both MAR and MNAR (missing not at random) mechanisms, and is able to handle lack of support for certain patterns of missingness. We use this characterization to develop a new imputation algorithm -- Multivariate Imputation via Supported Pattern Recursion (MISPR) -- which uses Gibbs sampling, by analogy with the Multivariate Imputation with Chained Equations (MICE) algorithm, but which is consistent under both MAR and MNAR settings, and is able to handle missing data patterns with no support without imposing additional assumptions beyond those already imposed by the missing data model itself. In simulations, we show MISPR obtains comparable results to MICE when data are MAR, and superior, less biased results when data are MNAR. Our characterization and imputation algorithm based on it are a step towards making principled missing data methods more practical in applied settings, where the data are likely both MNAR and sufficiently high dimensional to yield missing data patterns with no support at available sample sizes.

Calibrating the confidence of neural network classifiers is essential for quantifying the reliability of their predictions during inference. However, conventional Gaussian Process (GP) calibration methods often fail to capture the internal hierarchical structure of deep neural networks, limiting both interpretability and effectiveness for assessing predictive reliability. We propose a Semantic-Aware Layer-wise Gaussian Process (SAL-GP) framework that mirrors the layered architecture of the target neural network. Instead of applying a single global GP correction, SAL-GP employs a multi-layer GP model, where each layer's feature representation is mapped to a local calibration correction. These layerwise GPs are coupled through a structured multi-layer kernel, enabling joint marginalization across all layers. This design allows SAL-GP to capture both local semantic dependencies and global calibration coherence, while consistently propagating predictive uncertainty through the network. The resulting framework enhances interpretability aligned with the network architecture and enables principled evaluation of confidence consistency and uncertainty quantification in deep models.