Classical estimators, the cornerstones of statistical inference, face insurmountable challenges when applied to important emerging classes of Archimedean copulas. These models exhibit pathological properties, including numerically unstable densities, non-monotonic parameter-to-dependence mappings, and vanishingly small likelihood gradients, rendering methods like Maximum Likelihood (MLE) and Method of Moments (MoM) inconsistent or computationally infeasible. We introduce IGNIS, a unified neural estimation framework that sidesteps these barriers by learning a direct, robust mapping from data-driven dependency measures to the underlying copula parameter theta. IGNIS utilizes a multi-input architecture and a theory-guided output layer (softplus(z) + 1) to automatically enforce the domain constraint theta_hat >= 1. Trained and validated on four families (Gumbel, Joe, and the numerically challenging A1/A2), IGNIS delivers accurate and stable estimates for real-world financial and health datasets, demonstrating its necessity for reliable inference in modern, complex dependence models where traditional methods fail.

Currently, large partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are often solved by sampling-based online methods which interleave planning and execution phases. However, a pre-computed offline policy is more desirable in POMDP applications with time or energy constraints. But previous offline algorithms are not able to scale up to large POMDPs. In this article, we propose a new sampling-based algorithm, the partially observable Monte-Carlo graph search (POMCGS) to solve large POMDPs offline. Different from many online POMDP methods, which progressively develop a tree while performing (Monte-Carlo) simulations, POMCGS folds this search tree on the fly to construct a policy graph, so that computations can be drastically reduced, and users can analyze and validate the policy prior to embedding and executing it. Moreover, POMCGS, together with action progressive widening and observation clustering methods provided in this article, is able to address certain continuous POMDPs. Through experiments, we demonstrate that POMCGS can generate policies on the most challenging POMDPs, which cannot be computed by previous offline algorithms, and these policies' values are competitive compared with the state-of-the-art online POMDP algorithms.

-- Physics-based simulations and learning-based models are vital for complex robotics tasks like deformable object manipulation and liquid handling. For instance, accurately pouring liquid from one container to another poses challenges, particularly when models are trained on limited demonstrations and may perform poorly in novel situations. This paper proposes an uncertainty-aware Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm designed to mitigate these inaccuracies. By incorporating estimates of model uncertainty, the proposed MCTS strategy biases the search towards actions with lower predicted uncertainty. This approach enhances the reliability of planning under uncertain conditions. Applied to a liquid pouring task, our method demonstrates improved success rates even with models trained on minimal data, outperforming traditional methods and showcasing its potential for robust decision-making in robotics. Physics-based simulations and learning-based models are extensively used in robotics to perform complex tasks such as deformable object manipulation [1]-[5], contact-rich manipulation [6]-[8], control of soft robots [9], [10], and liquid handling [11], [12]. These models are often inaccurate in predicting the outcome of actions (e.g., because of the epistemic uncertainty of learned models or the sim-to-real gap of physics simulators).

Fairness in AI is traditionally studied as a static property evaluated once, over a fixed dataset. However, real-world AI systems operate sequentially, with outcomes and environments evolving over time. This paper proposes a framework for analysing fairness as a runtime property. Using a minimal yet expressive model based on sequences of coin tosses with possibly evolving biases, we study the problems of monitoring and enforcing fairness expressed in either toss outcomes or coin biases. Since there is no one-size-fits-all solution for either problem, we provide a summary of monitoring and enforcement strategies, parametrised by environment dynamics, prediction horizon, and confidence thresholds. For both problems, we present general results under simple or minimal assumptions. We survey existing solutions for the monitoring problem for Markovian and additive dynamics, and existing solutions for the enforcement problem in static settings with known dynamics.

Many robotic systems require extended deployments in complex, dynamic environments. In such deployments, parts of the environment may change between subsequent robot observations. Most robotic mapping or environment modeling algorithms are incapable of representing dynamic features in a way that enables predicting their future state. Instead, they opt to filter certain state observations, either by removing them or some form of weighted averaging. This paper introduces Perpetua, a method for modeling the dynamics of semi-static features. Perpetua is able to: incorporate prior knowledge about the dynamics of the feature if it exists, track multiple hypotheses, and adapt over time to enable predicting of future feature states. Specifically, we chain together mixtures of "persistence" and "emergence" filters to model the probability that features will disappear or reappear in a formal Bayesian framework. The approach is an efficient, scalable, general, and robust method for estimating the states of features in an environment, both in the present as well as at arbitrary future times. Through experiments on simulated and real-world data, we find that Perpetua yields better accuracy than similar approaches while also being online adaptable and robust to missing observations.

Black box optimization (BBO) focuses on optimizing unknown functions in high-dimensional spaces. In many applications, sampling the unknown function is expensive, imposing a tight sample budget. Ongoing work is making progress on reducing the sample budget by learning the shape/structure of the function, known as kernel learning. We propose a new method to learn the kernel of a Gaussian Process. Our idea is to create a continuous kernel space in the latent space of a variational autoencoder, and run an auxiliary optimization to identify the best kernel. Results show that the proposed method, Kernel Optimized Blackbox Optimization ( KOBO), outperforms state of the art by estimating the optimal at considerably lower sample budgets. Results hold not only across synthetic benchmark functions but also in real applications. We show that a hearing aid may be personalized with fewer audio queries to the user, or a generative model could converge to desirable images from limited user ratings.

Loco-manipulation of quadrupedal robots has broadened robotic applications, but using legs as manipulators often compromises locomotion, while mounting arms complicates the system. To mitigate this issue, we introduce bipedalism for quadrupedal robots, thus freeing the front legs for versatile interactions with the environment. We propose a risk-adaptive distributional Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework designed for quadrupedal robots walking on their hind legs, balancing worst-case conservativeness with optimal performance in this inherently unstable task. During training, the adaptive risk preference is dynamically adjusted based on the uncertainty of the return, measured by the coefficient of variation of the estimated return distribution. Extensive experiments in simulation show our method's superior performance over baselines. Real-world deployment on a Unitree Go2 robot further demonstrates the versatility of our policy, enabling tasks like cart pushing, obstacle probing, and payload transport, while showcasing robustness against challenging dynamics and external disturbances.

Causal discovery from observational data is challenging, especially with large datasets and complex relationships. Traditional methods often struggle with scalability and capturing global structural information. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a novel graph neural network (GNN)-based probabilistic framework that learns a probability distribution over the entire space of causal graphs, unlike methods that output a single deterministic graph. Our framework leverages a GNN that encodes both node and edge attributes into a unified graph representation, enabling the model to learn complex causal structures directly from data. The GNN model is trained on a diverse set of synthetic datasets augmented with statistical and information-theoretic measures, such as mutual information and conditional entropy, capturing both local and global data properties. We frame causal discovery as a supervised learning problem, directly predicting the entire graph structure. Our approach demonstrates superior performance, outperforming both traditional and recent non-GNN-based methods, as well as a GNN-based approach, in terms of accuracy and scalability on synthetic and real-world datasets without further training. This probabilistic framework significantly improves causal structure learning, with broad implications for decision-making and scientific discovery across various fields.

Despite substantial progress in applying neural networks (NN) to multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) areas, they still largely suffer from a lack of transparency and interoperability. However, its implicit cooperative mechanism is not yet fully understood due to black-box networks. In this work, we study an interpretable value decomposition framework via concept bottleneck models, which promote trustworthiness by conditioning credit assignment on an intermediate level of human-like cooperation concepts. To address this problem, we propose a novel value-based method, named Concepts learning for Multi-agent Q-learning (CMQ), that goes beyond the current performance-vs-interpretability trade-off by learning interpretable cooperation concepts. CMQ represents each cooperation concept as a supervised vector, as opposed to existing models where the information flowing through their end-to-end mechanism is concept-agnostic. Intuitively, using individual action value conditioning on global state embeddings to represent each concept allows for extra cooperation representation capacity. Empirical evaluations on the StarCraft II micromanagement challenge and level-based foraging (LBF) show that CMQ achieves superior performance compared with the state-of-the-art counterparts. The results also demonstrate that CMQ provides more cooperation concept representation capturing meaningful cooperation modes, and supports test-time concept interventions for detecting potential biases of cooperation mode and identifying spurious artifacts that impact cooperation.

In response to Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, recent research efforts increasingly rely on Machine Learning (ML)-based solutions, whose effectiveness largely depends on the quality of labeled training datasets. To address the scarcity of such datasets, data augmentation with synthetic traces is often employed. However, current synthetic trace generation methods struggle to capture the complex temporal patterns and spatial distributions exhibited in emerging DDoS attacks. This results in insufficient resemblance to real traces and unsatisfied detection accuracy when applied to ML tasks. In this paper, we propose Dual-Stream Temporal-Field Diffusion (DSTF-Diffusion), a multi-view, multi-stream network traffic generative model based on diffusion models, featuring two main streams: The field stream utilizes spatial mapping to bridge network data characteristics with pre-trained realms of stable diffusion models, effectively translating complex network interactions into formats that stable diffusion can process, while the spatial stream adopts a dynamic temporal modeling approach, meticulously capturing the intrinsic temporal patterns of network traffic. Extensive experiments demonstrate that data generated by our model exhibits higher statistical similarity to originals compared to current state-of-the-art solutions, and enhance performances on a wide range of downstream tasks.