Linear contextual bandits represent a fundamental class of models with numerous real-world applications, and it is critical to developing algorithms that can effectively manage noise with unknown variance, ensuring provable guarantees for both worst-case constant-variance noise and deterministic reward scenarios.

A nonparametric model using a sequence of Bernstein polynomials is constructed to approximate arbitrary isotropic covariance functions valid in $\mathbb{R}^\infty$ and related approximation properties are investigated using the popular $L_{\infty}$ norm and $L_2$ norms. A computationally efficient sieve maximum likelihood (sML) estimation is then developed to nonparametrically estimate the unknown isotropic covaraince function valid in $\mathbb{R}^\infty$. Consistency of the proposed sieve ML estimator is established under increasing domain regime. The proposed methodology is compared numerically with couple of existing nonparametric as well as with commonly used parametric methods. Numerical results based on simulated data show that our approach outperforms the parametric methods in reducing bias due to model misspecification and also the nonparametric methods in terms of having significantly lower values of expected $L_{\infty}$ and $L_2$ norms. Application to precipitation data is illustrated to showcase a real case study. Additional technical details and numerical illustrations are also made available.

Provably efficient Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) based on optimism or posterior sampling (PSRL) is ensured to attain the global optimality asymptotically by introducing the complexity measure of the model. However, the complexity might grow exponentially for the simplest nonlinear models, where global convergence is impossible within finite iterations. When the model suffers a large generalization error, which is quantitatively measured by the model complexity, the uncertainty can be large. The sampled model that current policy is greedily optimized upon will thus be unsettled, resulting in aggressive policy updates and over-exploration. In this work, we propose Conservative Dual Policy Optimization (CDPO) that involves a Referential Update and a Conservative Update. The policy is first optimized under a reference model, which imitates the mechanism of PSRL while offering more stability. A conservative range of randomness is guaranteed by maximizing the expectation of model value. Without harmful sampling procedures, CDPO can still achieve the same regret as PSRL. More importantly, CDPO enjoys monotonic policy improvement and global optimality simultaneously.

Many of the causal discovery methods rely on the faithfulness assumption to guarantee asymptotic correctness. However, the assumption can be approximately violated in many ways, leading to sub-optimal solutions. Although there is a line of research in Bayesian network structure learning that focuses on weakening the assumption, such as exact search methods with well-defined score functions, they do not scale well to large graphs. In this work, we introduce several strategies to improve the scalability of exact score-based methods in the linear Gaussian setting. In particular, we develop a super-structure estimation method based on the support of inverse covariance matrix which requires assumptions that are strictly weaker than faithfulness, and apply it to restrict the search space of exact search. We also propose a local search strategy that performs exact search on the local clusters formed by each variable and its neighbors within two hops in the superstructure. Numerical experiments validate the efficacy of the proposed procedure, and demonstrate that it scales up to hundreds of nodes with a high accuracy.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has witnessed significant progress with the development of value function factorization methods. It allows optimizing a joint action-value function through the maximization of factorized per-agent utilities. In this paper, we show that in partially observable MARL problems, an agent's ordering over its own actions could impose concurrent constraints (across different states) on the representable function class, causing significant estimation errors during training. We tackle this limitation and propose PAC, a new framework leveraging Assistive information generated from Counterfactual Predictions of optimal joint action selection, which enable explicit assistance to value function factorization through a novel counterfactual loss. A variational inference-based information encoding method is developed to collect and encode the counterfactual predictions from an estimated baseline. To enable decentralized execution, we also derive factorized per-agent policies inspired by a maximum-entropy MARL framework. We evaluate the proposed PAC on multi-agent predator-prey and a set of StarCraft II micromanagement tasks. Empirical results demonstrate improved results of PAC over state-of-the-art value-based and policy-based multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms on all benchmarks.