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 Learning Graphical Models


Representation Learning of Auxiliary Concepts for Improved Student Modeling and Exercise Recommendation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Personalized recommendation is a key feature of intelligent tutoring systems, typically relying on accurate models of student knowledge. Knowledge Tracing (KT) models enable this by estimating a student's mastery based on their historical interactions. Many KT models rely on human-annotated knowledge concepts (KCs), which tag each exercise with one or more skills or concepts believed to be necessary for solving it. However, these KCs can be incomplete, error-prone, or overly general. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model that learns sparse binary representations of exercises, where each bit indicates the presence or absence of a latent concept. We refer to these representations as auxiliary KCs. These representations capture conceptual structure beyond human-defined annotations and are compatible with both classical models (e.g., BKT) and modern deep learning KT architectures. We demonstrate that incorporating auxiliary KCs improves both student modeling and adaptive exercise recommendation. For student modeling, we show that augmenting classical models like BKT with auxiliary KCs leads to improved predictive performance. For recommendation, we show that using auxiliary KCs enhances both reinforcement learning-based policies and a simple planning-based method (expectimax), resulting in measurable gains in student learning outcomes within a simulated student environment.


A State-Space Approach to Nonstationary Discriminant Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Classical discriminant analysis assumes identically distributed training data, yet in many applications observations are collected over time and the class-conditional distributions drift. This population drift renders stationary classifiers unreliable. We propose a principled, model-based framework that embeds discriminant analysis within state-space models to obtain nonstationary linear discriminant analysis (NSLDA) and nonstationary quadratic discriminant analysis (NSQDA). For linear-Gaussian dynamics, we adapt Kalman smoothing to handle multiple samples per time step and develop two practical extensions: (i) an expectation-maximization (EM) approach that jointly estimates unknown system parameters, and (ii) a Gaussian mixture model (GMM)-Kalman method that simultaneously recovers unobserved time labels and parameters, a scenario common in practice. To address nonlinear or non-Gaussian drift, we employ particle smoothing to estimate time-varying class centroids, yielding fully nonstationary discriminant rules. Extensive simulations demonstrate consistent improvements over stationary linear discriminant analysis (LDA), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), and support vector machine (SVM) baselines, with robustness to noise, missing data, and class imbalance. This paper establishes a unified and data-efficient foundation for discriminant analysis under temporal distribution shift.


Low-dimensional embeddings of high-dimensional data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large collections of high-dimensional data have become nearly ubiquitous across many academic fields and application domains, ranging from biology to the humanities. Since working directly with high-dimensional data poses challenges, the demand for algorithms that create low-dimensional representations, or embeddings, for data visualization, exploration, and analysis is now greater than ever. In recent years, numerous embedding algorithms have been developed, and their usage has become widespread in research and industry. This surge of interest has resulted in a large and fragmented research field that faces technical challenges alongside fundamental debates, and it has left practitioners without clear guidance on how to effectively employ existing methods. Aiming to increase coherence and facilitate future work, in this review we provide a detailed and critical overview of recent developments, derive a list of best practices for creating and using low-dimensional embeddings, evaluate popular approaches on a variety of datasets, and discuss the remaining challenges and open problems in the field.


Mining Mental Health Signals: A Comparative Study of Four Machine Learning Methods for Depression Detection from Social Media Posts in Sorani Kurdish

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Depression is a common mental health condition that can lead to hopelessness, loss of interest, self-harm, and even suicide. Early detection is challenging due to individuals not self-reporting or seeking timely clinical help. With the rise of social media, users increasingly express emotions online, offering new opportunities for detection through text analysis. While prior research has focused on languages such as English, no studies exist for Sorani Kurdish. This work presents a machine learning and Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach to detect depression in Sorani tweets. A set of depression-related keywords was developed with expert input to collect 960 public tweets from X (Twitter platform). The dataset was annotated into three classes: Shows depression, Not-show depression, and Suspicious by academics and final year medical students at the University of Kurdistan Hewlêr. Four supervised models, including Support Vector Machines, Multinomial Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Random Forest, were trained and evaluated, with Random Forest achieving the highest performance accuracy and F1-score of 80%. This study establishes a baseline for automated depression detection in Kurdish language contexts.




The Implicit Delta Method

Neural Information Processing Systems

Epistemic uncertainty quantification is a crucial part of drawing credible conclusions from predictive models, whether concerned about the prediction at a given point or any downstream evaluation that uses the model as input.