This work establishes that sparse Bayesian neural networks achieve optimal posterior contraction rates over anisotropic Besov spaces and their hierarchical compositions. These structures reflect the intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying function, thereby mitigating the curse of dimensionality. Our analysis shows that Bayesian neural networks equipped with either sparse or continuous shrinkage priors attain the optimal rates which are dependent on the intrinsic dimension of the true structures. Moreover, we show that these priors enable rate adaptation, allowing the posterior to contract at the optimal rate even when the smoothness level of the true function is unknown. The proposed framework accommodates a broad class of functions, including additive and multiplicative Besov functions as special cases. These results advance the theoretical foundations of Bayesian neural networks and provide rigorous justification for their practical effectiveness in high-dimensional, structured estimation problems.

The ability to model interactions among agents is crucial for effective coordination and understanding their cooperation mechanisms in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). However, previous efforts to model high-order interactions have been primarily hindered by the combinatorial explosion or the opaque nature of their black-box network structures. In this paper, we propose a novel value decomposition framework, called Continued Fraction Q-Learning (QCoFr), which can flexibly capture arbitrary-order agent interactions with only linear complexity O(n) in the number of agents, thus avoiding the combinatorial explosion when modeling rich cooperation. Furthermore, we introduce the variational information bottleneck to extract latent information for estimating credits. This latent information helps agents filter out noisy interactions, thereby significantly enhancing both cooperation and interpretability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that QCoFr not only consistently achieves better performance but also provides interpretability that aligns with our theoretical analysis.

We provide the first sharp characterization of the optimal first-order query complexity of agnostic active learning, and propose a new general active learning algorithm which achieves it. Remarkably, the optimal query complexity admits a leading term which is always strictly smaller than the sample complexity of passive supervised learning (by a factor proportional to the best-in-class error rate). This was not previously known to be possible. For comparison, in all previous general analyses, the leading term exhibits an additional factor, such as the disagreement coefficient or related complexity measures, and therefore only provides improvements over passive learning in restricted cases. The present work completely removes such factors from the leading term, implying that every concept class benefits from active learning in the non-realizable case. Whether such benefits are possible has been the driving question underlying the past two decades of research on the theory of agnostic active learning. This work finally settles this fundamental question.

Multi-environment POMDPs (ME-POMDPs) extend standard POMDPs with discrete model uncertainty. ME-POMDPs represent a finite set of POMDPs that share the same state, action, and observation spaces, but may arbitrarily vary in their transition, observation, and reward models. Such models arise, for instance, when multiple domain experts disagree on how to model a problem. The goal is to find a single policy that is robust against any choice of POMDP within the set, i.e., a policy that maximizes the worst-case reward across all POMDPs. We generalize and expand on existing work in the following way. First, we show that ME-POMDPs can be generalized to POMDPs with sets of initial beliefs, which we call adversarial-belief POMDPs (AB-POMDPs). Second, we show that any arbitrary ME-POMDP can be reduced to a ME-POMDP that only varies in its transition and reward functions or only in its observation and reward functions, while preserving (optimal) policies. We then devise exact and approximate (point-based) algorithms to compute robust policies for AB-POMDPs, and thus ME-POMDPs. We demonstrate that we can compute policies for standard POMDP benchmarks extended to the multi-environment setting.

Effective conversational agents like large language models (LLMs) must personalize their interactions to adapt to user preferences, personalities, and attributes across diverse domains like education and healthcare. Current methods like Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), often prioritize helpfulness and safety but fall short in fostering truly empathetic, adaptive, and personalized dialogues. Existing personalization approaches typically rely on extensive user history, limiting their effectiveness for new or context-limited users. To address these limitations, we propose leveraging a user model to incorporate a curiosity-based intrinsic reward into multi-turn RLHF. This novel reward mechanism encourages the LLM agent to actively infer user traits by optimizing conversations to improve its user model's accuracy. Consequently, the agent delivers more personalized interactions by learning more about the user. We demonstrate our method's effectiveness in two distinct domains: significantly improving personalization performance in a conversational recommendation task, and personalizing conversations for different learning styles in an educational setting. We show improved generalization capabilities compared to traditional multi-turn RLHF, all while maintaining conversation quality. Our method offers a promising solution for creating more personalized, adaptive, and engaging conversational agents.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for Bayesian time-series modeling, yet their cubic computational cost remains a severe barrier for application to long, high-cadence datasets in astronomy. While specialized scalable solvers like Celerite elegantly reduce this scaling to linear time, repeatedly evaluating the exact likelihood during iterative Bayesian sampling is a bottleneck for developing more complex models, like hierarchical or additive models in which Celerite is only one component. To make this inference computationally tractable, we introduce a generative surrogate framework. By utilizing a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to learn a compressed representation of the Celerite prior, we map highly correlated stochastic dependencies into a low-dimensional, isotropic manifold. This transition completely bypasses exact covariance operations, shifting the computational burden to a rapid neural network forward pass. Through an extensive simulation study, we show that the generative surrogate accurately reproduces the structural fidelity of exact physical kernels like Celerite. Finally, we demonstrate embedding our VAE approximation into an additive model that combines Celerite and a hidden Markov model (HMM) for stellar flare detection in time series data of stars. We evaluate the joint VAE+HMM architecture against the exact Celerite+HMM framework on empirical astrophysical time series and demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves significant reductions in computational time, enabling the rigorous, large-scale characterization of stellar flares across massive data archives.

There is a precise sense in which drawing causal inferences from observational data is hard, even when identifiability is assumed. In particular, Robins and Ritov (1997) and Robins et al. (2003) showed that causal effects can be discontinuous as a function of the data distribution: two arbitrarily close data distributions might correspond to different causal effects. This is a fact independent of the choice of estimator; however, not all estimators are equally unstable. Our contribution is to surface a second layer of instability that depends on the choice of estimator. We show that many standard point estimates can be read as point summaries of multimodal distributions over the space of structural causal models. As such, estimators can jump discontinuously in the data distribution. This defines a taxonomy of estimators that admits a decision-theoretic reading: stability depends on whether the implicit loss function an estimator optimizes is aligned with the causal effect itself. Specifically, inverse propensity weighted estimators and regression estimators are examples of discontinuous summaries, while explicit posterior means and medians are shown to be continuous.

Bayesian experimental design (BED) has traditionally been based on maximising expected uncertainty reductions from prior to posterior. A major shortfall of this approach is that it leads to doubly intractable objectives that are difficult to optimise, while customising them to particular downstream tasks of interest can also be difficult. Following first principles decision theory, we demonstrate that BED can alternatively be formulated in terms of an expected future loss (EFL) on downstream actions, providing a simple and naturally task-driven framework. Critically, we then show that all such EFLs can be rearranged into singly intractable objectives that can be jointly optimised with respect to both the design policy and a downstream action policy using stochastic gradients, an approach we refer to as ACTION-BED. This formulation further sidesteps the need for any explicit posterior or marginal likelihood estimation and is naturally implicit, requiring only the ability to sample from the joint model over model parameters and data, and evaluate the downstream loss function. It thus allows design policies to be learned more effectively, efficiently, and simply than existing methods, while providing easy customisation to different downstream tasks and losses.

Bayesian model averaging in support-indexed regression induces a posterior distribution over active predictor supports. Under predictor redundancy, posterior mass can spread across many nearly interchangeable supports, making exact-support summaries unstable or hard to interpret even when prediction is stable. We study how to report an already fitted Bayesian model averaging posterior without changing the Bayesian target. A report uses hard or soft regions of support space, and its compressed reporting law is compared with the reference posterior through an explicit density ratio. This ratio gives computable total-variation and Kullback--Leibler distortion, bounds for bounded predictive summaries, retained-mass diagnostics, and fallback-weight diagnostics. The framework covers fixed hard regions, metric-ball regions, posterior-cluster regions, and pooled-pruned region dictionaries. We prove exact error formulas and validation bounds for these region reports, and give conditions under which a few regions can replace a long list of individual supports. In simulations, our region reports often give shorter and clearer summaries while preserving the main posterior information, and the density-ratio diagnostics show when too much information has been lost.

Machine learning (ML) systems increasingly support decision-making in high-stakes settings such as robotics, autonomous systems, finance, homeland security, and critical infrastructure protection. In these domains, robustness and reliability are essential because failures can translate into physical harm, financial loss, or operational breakdown (García and Fernández, 2015). A recurring weakness is that many ML pipelines implicitly assume that training and deployment data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), even though real deployments often violate this assumption through sensor drift, changing environments, and distribution shift (Quiñonero-Candela et al., 2009). In security-relevant contexts, this problem is amplified because adversaries can deliberately manipulate observations, rewards, or the environment to induce targeted shifts and drive the system toward failure (Barreno et al., 2006; Biggio and Roli, 2018; Vassilev et al., 2024). These concerns motivate the relatively recent field of adversarial machine learning (AML), which studies how malicious perturbations can break learning systems and how to design defenses against them (Biggio and Roli, 2018; Goodfellow, Shlens and Szegedy, 2015).