While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities, their output quality remains inconsistent across various application scenarios, making it difficult to identify trustworthy responses, especially in complex tasks requiring multi-step reasoning. In this paper, we propose a Token-level Uncertainty estimation framework for Reasoning (TokUR) that enables LLMs to self-assess and self-improve their responses in mathematical reasoning. Specifically, we introduce low-rank random weight perturbation during LLM decoding to generate predictive distributions for token-level uncertainty estimation, and we aggregate these uncertainty quantities to capture the semantic uncertainty of generated responses. Experiments on mathematical reasoning datasets of varying difficulty demonstrate that TokUR exhibits a strong correlation with answer correctness and model robustness, and the uncertainty signals produced by TokUR can be leveraged to enhance the model's reasoning performance at test time. These results highlight the effectiveness of TokUR as a principled and scalable approach for improving the reliability and interpretability of LLMs in challenging reasoning tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been transformative across many domains. However, hallucination -- confidently outputting incorrect information -- remains one of the leading challenges for LLMs. This raises the question of how to accurately assess and quantify the uncertainty of LLMs. Extensive literature on traditional models has explored Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) to measure uncertainty and employed calibration techniques to address the misalignment between uncertainty and accuracy. While some of these methods have been adapted for LLMs, the literature lacks an in-depth analysis of their effectiveness and does not offer a comprehensive benchmark to enable insightful comparison among existing solutions. In this work, we fill this gap via a systematic survey of representative prior works on UQ and calibration for LLMs and introduce a rigorous benchmark. Using two widely used reliability datasets, we empirically evaluate six related methods, which justify the significant findings of our review. Finally, we provide outlooks for key future directions and outline open challenges. To the best of our knowledge, this survey is the first dedicated study to review the calibration methods and relevant metrics for LLMs.

Recent advances in Bayesian probability theory and its application to cognitive science in combination with the development of a new generation of computational tools and methods for probabilistic computation have led to a 'probabilistic turn' in pragmatics and semantics. In particular, the framework of Rational Speech Act theory has been developed to model broadly Gricean accounts of pragmatic phenomena in Bayesian terms, starting with fairly simple reference games and covering ever more complex communicative exchanges such as verbal syllogistic reasoning. This paper explores in which way a similar Bayesian approach might be applied to relevance-theoretic pragmatics (Sperber & Wilson, 1995) by study a paradigmatic pragmatic phenomenon: the communication of implicit meaning by ways of (conversational) implicatures.

The capability of predicting environmental dynamics underpins both biological neural systems and general embodied AI in adapting to their surroundings. Yet prevailing approaches rest on static world models that falter when confronted with novel or rare configurations. We investigate in-context environment learning (ICEL), shifting attention from zero-shot performance to the growth and asymptotic limits of the world model. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) we formalize in-context learning of a world model and identify two core mechanisms: environment recognition and environment learning; (2) we derive error upper-bounds for both mechanisms that expose how the mechanisms emerge; and (3) we empirically confirm that distinct ICL mechanisms exist in the world model, and we further investigate how data distribution and model architecture affect ICL in a manner consistent with theory. These findings demonstrate the potential of self-adapting world models and highlight the key factors behind the emergence of ICEL, most notably the necessity of long context and diverse environments.

Despite widespread success in language understanding and generation, large language models (LLMs) exhibit unclear and often inconsistent behavior when faced with tasks that require probabilistic reasoning. In this work, we present the first comprehensive study of the reasoning capabilities of LLMs over explicit discrete probability distributions. Given observations from a probability distribution, we evaluate models on three carefully designed tasks, mode identification, maximum likelihood estimation, and sample generation, by prompting them to provide responses to queries about either the joint distribution or its conditionals. These tasks thus probe a range of probabilistic skills, including frequency analysis, marginalization, and generative behavior. Through comprehensive empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that there exists a clear performance gap between smaller and larger models, with the latter demonstrating stronger inference and surprising capabilities in sample generation. Furthermore, our investigations reveal notable limitations, including sensitivity to variations in the notation utilized to represent probabilistic outcomes and performance degradation of over 60% as context length increases. Together, our results provide a detailed understanding of the probabilistic reasoning abilities of LLMs and identify key directions for future improvement.

Universal grasping with multi-fingered dexterous hands is a fundamental challenge in robotic manipulation. While recent approaches successfully learn closed-loop grasping policies using reinforcement learning (RL), the inherent difficulty of high-dimensional, long-horizon exploration necessitates complex reward and curriculum design, often resulting in suboptimal solutions across diverse objects. We propose DemoGrasp, a simple yet effective method for learning universal dexterous grasping. We start from a single successful demonstration trajectory of grasping a specific object and adapt to novel objects and poses by editing the robot actions in this trajectory: changing the wrist pose determines where to grasp, and changing the hand joint angles determines how to grasp. We formulate this trajectory editing as a single-step Markov Decision Process (MDP) and use RL to optimize a universal policy across hundreds of objects in parallel in simulation, with a simple reward consisting of a binary success term and a robot-table collision penalty. In simulation, DemoGrasp achieves a 95% success rate on DexGraspNet objects using the Shadow Hand, outperforming previous state-of-the-art methods. It also shows strong transferability, achieving an average success rate of 84.6% across diverse dexterous hand embodiments on six unseen object datasets, while being trained on only 175 objects. Through vision-based imitation learning, our policy successfully grasps 110 unseen real-world objects, including small, thin items. It generalizes to spatial, background, and lighting changes, supports both RGB and depth inputs, and extends to language-guided grasping in cluttered scenes.

Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) poses a significant and challenging problem critical for applications in robotics and logistics, particularly due to its combinatorial complexity and the partial observability inherent in realistic environments. Decentralized reinforcement learning methods commonly encounter two substantial difficulties: first, they often yield self-centered behaviors among agents, resulting in frequent collisions, and second, their reliance on complex communication modules leads to prolonged training times, sometimes spanning weeks. To address these challenges, we propose an efficient decentralized planning framework based on the Decision Transformer (DT), uniquely leveraging offline reinforcement learning to substantially reduce training durations from weeks to mere hours. Crucially, our approach effectively handles long-horizon credit assignment and significantly improves performance in scenarios with sparse and delayed rewards. Furthermore, to overcome adaptability limitations inherent in standard RL methods under dynamic environmental changes, we integrate a large language model (GPT-4o) to dynamically guide agent policies. Extensive experiments in both static and dynamically changing environments demonstrate that our DT-based approach, augmented briefly by GPT-4o, significantly enhances adaptability and performance.

Psychological attributes rarely operate in isolation: coaches reason about networks of related traits. We analyze a new dataset of 164 female volleyball players from Italy's C and D leagues that combines standardized psychological profiling with background information. To learn directed relationships among mixed-type variables (ordinal questionnaire scores, categorical demographics, continuous indicators), we introduce latent MMHC, a hybrid structure learner that couples a latent Gaussian copula and a constraint-based skeleton with a constrained score-based refinement to return a single DAG. We also study a bootstrap-aggregated variant for stability. In simulations spanning sample size, sparsity, and dimension, latent Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC) attains lower structural Hamming distance and higher edge recall than recent copula-based learners while maintaining high specificity. Applied to volleyball, the learned network organizes mental skills around goal setting and self-confidence, with emotional arousal linking motivation and anxiety, and locates Big-Five traits (notably neuroticism and extraversion) upstream of skill clusters. Scenario analyses quantify how improvements in specific skills propagate through the network to shift preparation, confidence, and self-esteem. The approach provides an interpretable, data-driven framework for profiling psychological traits in sport and for decision support in athlete development.

We study masked discrete diffusion -- a flexible paradigm for text generation in which tokens are progressively corrupted by special mask symbols before being denoised. Although this approach has demonstrated strong empirical performance, its theoretical complexity in high-dimensional settings remains insufficiently understood. Existing analyses largely focus on uniform discrete diffusion, and more recent attempts addressing masked diffusion either (1) overlook widely used Euler samplers, (2) impose restrictive bounded-score assumptions, or (3) fail to showcase the advantages of masked discrete diffusion over its uniform counterpart. To address this gap, we show that Euler samplers can achieve $ε$-accuracy in total variation (TV) with $\tilde{O}(d^{2}ε^{-3/2})$ discrete score evaluations, thereby providing the first rigorous analysis of typical Euler sampler in masked discrete diffusion. We then propose a Mask-Aware Truncated Uniformization (MATU) approach that both removes bounded-score assumptions and preserves unbiased discrete score approximation. By exploiting the property that each token can be unmasked at most once, MATU attains a nearly $ε$-free complexity of $O(d\,\ln d\cdot (1-ε^2))$. This result surpasses existing uniformization methods under uniform discrete diffusion, eliminating the $\ln(1/ε)$ factor and substantially speeding up convergence. Our findings not only provide a rigorous theoretical foundation for masked discrete diffusion, showcasing its practical advantages over uniform diffusion for text generation, but also pave the way for future efforts to analyze diffusion-based language models developed under masking paradigm.

Despite growing interest in developing legged robots that emulate biological locomotion for agile navigation of complex environments, acquiring a diverse repertoire of skills remains a fundamental challenge in robotics. Existing methods can learn motion behaviors from expert data, but they often fail to acquire multiple locomotion skills through a single policy and lack smooth skill transitions. We propose a multi-skill learning framework based on Conditional Adversarial Motion Priors (CAMP), with the aim of enabling quadruped robots to efficiently acquire a diverse set of locomotion skills from expert demonstrations. Precise skill reconstruction is achieved through a novel skill discriminator and skill-conditioned reward design. The overall framework supports the active control and reuse of multiple skills, providing a practical solution for learning generalizable policies in complex environments.