Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of interest in employing flexible machine learning models for instrumental variable (IV) regression, but the development of uncertainty quantification methodology is still lacking. In this work we present a scalable quasi-Bayesian procedure for IV regression, building upon the recently developed kernelized IV models. Contrary to Bayesian modeling for IV, our approach does not require additional assumptions on the data generating process, and leads to a scalable approximate inference algorithm with time cost comparable to the corresponding point estimation methods. Our algorithm can be further extended to work with neural network models. We analyze the theoretical properties of the proposed quasi-posterior, and demonstrate through empirical evaluation the competitive performance of our method.

Attention is all you need.

We consider the problem of embedding a dynamic network, to obtain time-evolving vector representations of each node, which can then be used to describe changes in behaviour of individual nodes, communities, or the entire graph. Given this open-ended remit, we argue that two types of stability in the spatio-temporal positioning of nodes are desirable: to assign the same position, up to noise, to nodes behaving similarly at a given time (cross-sectional stability) and a constant position, up to noise, to a single node behaving similarly across different times (longitudinal stability). Similarity in behaviour is defined formally using notions of exchangeability under a dynamic latent position network model. By showing how this model can be recast as a multilayer random dot product graph, we demonstrate that unfolded adjacency spectral embedding satisfies both stability conditions. We also show how two alternative methods, omnibus and independent spectral embedding, alternately lack one or the other form of stability.

Active learning sequentially selects the best instance for labeling by optimizing an acquisition function to enhance data/label efficiency. The selection can be either from a discrete instance set (pool-based scenario) or a continuous instance space (query synthesis scenario). In this work, we study both active learning scenarios for Gaussian Process Classification (GPC). The existing active learning strategies that maximize the Estimated Error Reduction (EER) aim at reducing the classification error after training with the new acquired instance in a onestep-look-ahead manner. The computation of EER-based acquisition functions is typically prohibitive as it requires retraining the GPC with every new query.

We consider reinforcement learning in an environment modeled by an episodic, finite, stage-dependent Markov decision process of horizon H with S states, and A actions. The performance of an agent is measured by the regret after interacting with the environment for T episodes. We propose an optimistic posterior sampling algorithm for reinforcement learning (OPSRL), a simple variant of posterior sampling that only needs a number of posterior samples logarithmic in H, S, A, and T per state-action pair.

We propose a novel approach to interactive theorem proving (ITP) using deep reinforcement learning. The proposed framework is able to learn proof search strategies as well as tactic and arguments prediction in an end-to-end manner. We formulate the process of ITP as a Markov decision process (MDP) in which each state represents a set of potential derivation paths. This structure allows us to introduce a search mechanism which enables the agent to efficiently discard (predicted) dead-end derivations and restart from promising alternatives. We implement the framework in the HOL4 theorem prover. Experimental results show that the framework using learned search strategies outperforms existing automated theorem provers (i.e.

We study social learning dynamics motivated by reviews on online platforms. The agents collectively follow a simple multi-armed bandit protocol, but each agent acts myopically, without regards to exploration. We allow a wide range of myopic behaviors that are consistent with (parameterized) confidence intervals for the arms' expected rewards. We derive stark exploration failures for any such behavior, and provide matching positive results. As a special case, we obtain the first general results on failure of the greedy algorithm in bandits, thus providing a theoretical foundation for why bandit algorithms should explore.1