The full Bayesian method for applying neural networks to a prediction problemis to set up the prior/hyperprior structure for the net and then perform the necessary integrals. However, these integrals arenot tractable analytically, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are slow, especially if the parameter space is high-dimensional. Using Gaussian processes we can approximate the weight space integral analytically, so that only a small number of hyperparameters need be integrated over by MCMC methods. We have applied this idea to classification problems, obtaining excellent resultson the real-world problems investigated so far. 1 INTRODUCTION To make predictions based on a set of training data, fundamentally we need to combine our prior beliefs about possible predictive functions with the data at hand. In the Bayesian approach to neural networks a prior on the weights in the net induces a prior distribution over functions.

We describe the implementation of a hidden Markov model state decoding system, a component for a wordspotting speech recognition system.The key specification for this state decoder design is microwatt power dissipation; this requirement led to a continuoustime, analogcircuit implementation. We characterize the operation of a 10-word (81 state) state decoder test chip.

We propose and analyze an algorithm that approximates solutions to the problem of optimal stopping in a discounted irreducible aperiodic Markovchain. The scheme involves the use of linear combinations offixed basis functions to approximate a Q-function. The weights of the linear combination are incrementally updated through an iterative process similar to Q-Iearning, involving simulation ofthe underlying Markov chain. Due to space limitations, we only provide an overview of a proof of convergence (with probability 1)and bounds on the approximation error. This is the first theoretical result that establishes the soundness of a Q-Iearninglike algorithmwhen combined with arbitrary linear function approximators tosolve a sequential decision problem.

The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm has been extensively studied and has been applied with considerable success to a wide variety of problems. However, the algorithm is derived from heuristic ideasand this leads to a number of significant limitations. In this paper, we consider the problem of modelling the probability densityof data in a space of several dimensions in terms of a smaller number of latent, or hidden, variables. We introduce a novel form of latent variable model, which we call the GTM algorithm (forGenerative Topographic Mapping), which allows general nonlinear transformations from latent space to data space, and which is trained using the EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm. Ourapproach overcomes the limitations of the SOM, while introducing no significant disadvantages. We demonstrate the performance ofthe GTM algorithm on simulated data from flow diagnostics for a multiphase oil pipeline.

When triangulating a belief network we aim to obtain a junction tree of minimum state space. According to (Rose, 1970), searching for the optimal triangulation can be cast as a search over all the permutations of the graph's vertices. Our approach is to embed the discrete set of permutations in a convex continuous domain D. By suitably extending the cost function over D and solving the continous nonlinear optimization task we hope to obtain a good triangulation with respect to the aformentioned cost. This paper presents two ways of embedding the triangulation problem into continuous domain and shows that they perform well compared to the best known heuristic.

It is shown that conventional computers can be exponentiallx faster than planar Hopfield networks: although there are planar Hopfield networks that take exponential time to converge, a stable state of an arbitrary planar Hopfield network can be found by a conventional computer in polynomial time.

Neural Computing Research Group Aston University, Birmingham, B4 7ET, U.K. http://www.ncrg.aston.ac.uk/ Abstract The techniques of Bayesian inference have been applied with great success to many problems in neural computing including evaluation of regression functions, determination of error bars on predictions, and the treatment of hyper-parameters. However, the problem of model comparison is a much more challenging one for which current techniques have significant limitations. In this paper we show how an extended form of Markov chain Monte Carlo, called chaining, is able to provide effective estimates of the relative probabilities of different models. We present results from the robot arm problem and compare them with the corresponding results obtained using the standard Gaussian approximation framework. Initially this is chosen to be some prior distribution p(wIM), which can be combined with a likelihood function p( Dlw, M) using Bayes' theorem to give a posterior distribution p(wID, M) in the form ( ID M) p(Dlw,M)p(wIM) p w, p(DIM) (1) where D is the data set. Predictions of the model are obtained by performing integrations weighted by the posterior distribution.

Many real world patterns have a hierarchical underlying structure in which simple features have a higher order structure among themselves. Because these relationships are often statistical in nature, it is natural to view the process of discovering such structures as a statistical inference problem in which a hierarchical model is fit to data. Hierarchical statistical structure can be conveniently represented with Bayesian belief networks (Pearl, 1988; Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter, 1988; Neal, 1992). These 530 M.S. Lewicki and T. 1. Sejnowski models are powerful, because they can capture complex statistical relationships among the data variables, and also mathematically convenient, because they allow efficient computation of the joint probability for any given set of model parameters. The joint probability density of a network of binary states is given by a product of conditional probabilities (1) where W is the weight matrix that parameterizes the model. Note that the probability ofan individual state Si depends only on its parents.

A modification is described to the use of mean field approximations inthe E step of EM algorithms for analysing data from latent structure models, as described by Ghahramani (1995), among others. Themodification involves second-order Taylor approximations to expectations computed in the E step. The potential benefits of the method are illustrated using very simple latent profile models. 1 Introduction Ghahramani (1995) advocated the use of mean field methods as a means to avoid the heavy computation involved in the E step of the EM algorithm used for estimating parameters within a certain latent structure model, and Ghahramani & Jordan (1995) used the same ideas in a more complex situation. Dunmur & Titterington (1996a) identified Ghahramani's model as a so-called latent profile model, they observed that Zhang (1992,1993) had used mean field methods for a similar purpose, and they showed, in a simulation study based on very simple examples, that the mean field version of the EM algorithm often performed very respectably. By this it is meant that, when data were generated from the model under analysis, the estimators of the underlying parameters were efficient, judging by empirical results, especially in comparison with estimators obtained by employing the'correct' EM algorithm: the examples therefore had to be simple enough that the correct EM algorithm is numerically feasible, although any success reported for the mean field 432 A. P. Dunmur and D. M. Titterington version is, one hopes, an indication that the method will also be adequate in more complex situations in which the correct EM algorithm is not implementable because of computational complexity. In spite of the above positive remarks, there were circumstances in which there was a perceptible, if not dramatic, lack of efficiency in the simple (naive) mean field estimators, and the objective of this contribution is to propose and investigate ways of refining the method so as to improve performance without detracting from the appealing, and frequently essential, simplicity of the approach. The procedure used here is based on a second order correction to the naive mean field well known in statistical physics and sometimes called the cavity or TAP method (Mezard, Parisi & Virasoro, 1987). It has been applied recently in cluster analysis (Hofmann & Buhmann, 1996). In Section 2 we introduce the structure of our model, Section 3 explains the refined mean field approach, Section 4 provides numerical results, and Section 5 contains a statement of our conclusions.

The classes in classification tasks often have a natural ordering, and the training and testing examples are often incomplete. We propose a nonlinear ordinalmodel for classification into ordered classes. Predictive, simulation-based approaches are used to learn from past and classify future incompleteexamples. These techniques are illustrated by making prognoses for patients who have suffered severe head injuries.