These include Boltzmann machines (Hinton and Sejnowski 1986), binary sigmoidal belief networks (Neal 1992) and Helmholtz machines (Hinton et al. 1995; Dayan et al. 1995). However, some hidden variables, such as translation or scaling in images of shapes, are best represented using continuous values. Continuous-valued Boltzmann machines have been developed (Movellan and McClelland 1993), but these suffer from long simulation settling times and the requirement of a "negative phase" during learning. Tibshirani (1992) and Bishop et al. (1996) consider learning mappings from a continuous latent variable space to a higher-dimensional input space. MacKay (1995) has developed "density networks" that can model both continuous and categorical latent spaces using stochasticity at the topmost network layer. In this paper I consider a new hierarchical top-down connectionist model that has stochastic hidden variables at all layers; moreover, these variables can adapt to be continuous or categorical. The proposed top-down model can be viewed as a continuous-valued belief network, which can be simulated by performing a quick top-down pass (Pearl 1988).

The classes in classification tasks often have a natural ordering, and the training and testing examples are often incomplete. We propose a nonlinear ordinal model for classification into ordered classes. Predictive, simulation-based approaches are used to learn from past and classify future incomplete examples. These techniques are illustrated by making prognoses for patients who have suffered severe head injuries.

We develop a recursive node-elimination formalism for efficiently approximating large probabilistic networks. No constraints are set on the network topologies. Yet the formalism can be straightforwardly integrated with exact methods whenever they are/become applicable. The approximations we use are controlled: they maintain consistently upper and lower bounds on the desired quantities at all times. We show that Boltzmann machines, sigmoid belief networks, or any combination (i.e., chain graphs) can be handled within the same framework.

This paper presents a new approach to speech recognition with hybrid HMM/ANN technology. While the standard approach to hybrid HMMI ANN systems is based on the use of neural networks as posterior probability estimators, the new approach is based on the use of mutual information neural networks trained with a special learning algorithm in order to maximize the mutual information between the input classes of the network and its resulting sequence of firing output neurons during training. It is shown in this paper that such a neural network is an optimal neural vector quantizer for a discrete hidden Markov model system trained on Maximum Likelihood principles. One of the main advantages of this approach is the fact, that such neural networks can be easily combined with HMM's of any complexity with context-dependent capabilities. It is shown that the resulting hybrid system achieves very high recognition rates, which are now already on the same level as the best conventional HMM systems with continuous parameters, and the capabilities of the mutual information neural networks are not yet entirely exploited.

We propose and analyze an algorithm that approximates solutions to the problem of optimal stopping in a discounted irreducible aperiodic Markov chain. The scheme involves the use of linear combinations of fixed basis functions to approximate a Q-function. The weights of the linear combination are incrementally updated through an iterative process similar to Q-Iearning, involving simulation of the underlying Markov chain. Due to space limitations, we only provide an overview of a proof of convergence (with probability 1) and bounds on the approximation error. This is the first theoretical result that establishes the soundness of a Q-Iearninglike algorithm when combined with arbitrary linear function approximators to solve a sequential decision problem.

Images are ambiguous at each of many levels of a contextual hierarchy. Nevertheless, the high-level interpretation of most scenes is unambiguous, as evidenced by the superior performance of humans. This observation argues for global vision models, such as deformable templates. Unfortunately, such models are computationally intractable for unconstrained problems. We propose a compositional model in which primitives are recursively composed, subject to syntactic restrictions, to form tree-structured objects and object groupings. Ambiguity is propagated up the hierarchy in the form of multiple interpretations, which are later resolved by a Bayesian, equivalently minimum-description-Iength, cost functional.

The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm has been extensively studied and has been applied with considerable success to a wide variety of problems. However, the algorithm is derived from heuristic ideas and this leads to a number of significant limitations. In this paper, we consider the problem of modelling the probability density of data in a space of several dimensions in terms of a smaller number of latent, or hidden, variables. We introduce a novel form of latent variable model, which we call the GTM algorithm (for Generative Topographic Mapping), which allows general nonlinear transformations from latent space to data space, and which is trained using the EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm. Our approach overcomes the limitations of the SOM, while introducing no significant disadvantages. We demonstrate the performance of the GTM algorithm on simulated data from flow diagnostics for a multiphase oil pipeline.

The essential property of BBNs is summarized by the Markov condition, which asserts that each variable is independent of its non-descendants given its parents.

Coarse codes are widely used throughout the brain to encode sensory and motor variables. Methods designed to interpret these codes, such as population vector analysis, are either inefficient, i.e., the variance of the estimate is much larger than the smallest possible variance, or biologically implausible, like maximum likelihood. Moreover, these methods attempt to compute a scalar or vector estimate of the encoded variable. Neurons are faced with a similar estimation problem. They must read out the responses of the presynaptic neurons, but, by contrast, they typically encode the variable with a further population code rather than as a scalar. We show how a nonlinear recurrent network can be used to perform these estimation in an optimal way while keeping the estimate in a coarse code format. This work suggests that lateral connections in the cortex may be involved in cleaning up uncorrelated noise among neurons representing similar variables.

This paper develops arguments for a family of temporal log-linear models to represent spatiotemporal correlations among the spiking events in a group of neurons. The models can represent not just pairwise correlations but also correlations of higher order. Methods are discussed for inferring the existence or absence of correlations and estimating their strength. A frequentist and a Bayesian approach to correlation detection are compared.