Local "belief propagation" rules of the sort proposed by Pearl [15] are guaranteed to converge to the correct posterior probabilities in singly connected graphical models. Recently, a number of researchers have empirically demonstratedgood performance of "loopy belief propagation" using these same rules on graphs with loops. Perhaps the most dramatic instance is the near Shannon-limit performance of "Turbo codes", whose decoding algorithm is equivalent to loopy belief propagation. Except for the case of graphs with a single loop, there has been little theoretical understandingof the performance of loopy propagation. Here we analyze belief propagation in networks with arbitrary topologies when the nodes in the graph describe jointly Gaussian random variables.

This paper argues that two apparently distinct modes of generalizing concepts -abstracting rules and computing similarity to exemplars - should both be seen as special cases of a more general Bayesian learning framework. Bayesexplains the specific workings of these two modes - which rules are abstracted, how similarity is measured - as well as why generalization shouldappear rule-or similarity-based in different situations. This analysis also suggests why the rules/similarity distinction, even if not computationally fundamental, may still be useful at the algorithmic level as part of a principled approximation to fully Bayesian learning.

Zoubin Ghahramani and Matthew J. Beal Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit University College London 17 Queen Square, London WC1N 3AR, England {zoubin,m.beal}Ggatsby.ucl.ac.uk Abstract We present an algorithm that infers the model structure of a mixture offactor analysers using an efficient and deterministic variational approximationto full Bayesian integration over model parameters. Thisprocedure can automatically determine the optimal number of components and the local dimensionality of each component (Le. the number of factors in each factor analyser). Alternatively it can be used to infer posterior distributions over number of components and dimensionalities. Since all parameters are integrated out the method is not prone to overfitting. Using a stochastic procedure for adding components it is possible to perform thevariational optimisation incrementally and to avoid local maxima.

Three contributions to developing an algorithm for assisting engineers indesigning analog circuits are provided in this paper. First, a method for representing highly nonlinear and noncontinuous analog circuits using Kirchoff current law potential functions within the context of a Markov field is described. Second, a relatively efficient algorithmfor optimizing the Markov field objective function is briefly described and the convergence proof is briefly sketched. And third, empirical results illustrating the strengths and limitations ofthe approach are provided within the context of a JFET transistor design problem. The proposed algorithm generated a set of circuit components for the JFET circuit model that accurately generated the desired characteristic curves. 1 Analog circuit design using Markov random fields

We propose a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm which is a generalization ofthe stochastic dynamics method. The algorithm performs exploration of the state space using its intrinsic geometric structure, facilitating efficientsampling of complex distributions. Applied to Bayesian learning in neural networks, our algorithm was found to perform at least as well as the best state-of-the-art method while consuming considerably less time. 1 Introduction

In recent years, Bayesian networks have become highly successful tool for diagnosis, analysis,and decision making in real-world domains. We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayes networks from data.

The support vector machine (SVM) is a state-of-the-art technique for regression and classification, combining excellent generalisation properties with a sparse kernel representation. However, it does suffer from a number of disadvantages, notably the absence of probabilistic outputs,the requirement to estimate a tradeoff parameter and the need to utilise'Mercer' kernel functions. In this paper we introduce the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), a Bayesian treatment ofa generalised linear model of identical functional form to the SVM. The RVM suffers from none of the above disadvantages, and examples demonstrate that for comparable generalisation performance, theRVM requires dramatically fewer kernel functions.

The problem of reinforcement learning in a non-Markov environment is explored using a dynamic Bayesian network, where conditional independence assumptionsbetween random variables are compactly represented by network parameters. The parameters are learned online, and approximations areused to perform inference and to compute the optimal value function. The relative effects of inference and value function approximations onthe quality of the final policy are investigated, by learning to solve a moderately difficult driving task. The two value function approximations, linearand quadratic, were found to perform similarly, but the quadratic model was more sensitive to initialization. Both performed below thelevel of human performance on the task.

I present a simple variation of importance sampling that explicitly searches forimportant regions in the target distribution. I prove that the technique yieldsunbiased estimates, and show empirically it can reduce the variance of standard Monte Carlo estimators. This is achieved by concentrating samplesin more significant regions of the sample space. 1 Introduction It is well known that general inference and learning with graphical models is computationally hard[1] and it is therefore necessary to consider restricted architectures [13], or approximate algorithms to perform these tasks [3, 7]. Among the most convenient and successful techniques are stochastic methods which are guaranteed to converge to a correct solution in the limit oflarge samples [10, 11, 12, 15]. These methods can be easily applied to complex inference problems that overwhelm deterministic approaches.

Although one can derive the Gaussian noise assumption based on a maximum entropy approach, the main reason for this assumption is practicability: underthe Gaussian noise assumption the maximum likelihood parameter estimate can simply be found by minimization of the squared error. Despite its common use it is far from clear that the Gaussian noise assumption is a good choice for many practical problems. Areasonable approach therefore would be a noise distribution which contains the Gaussian as a special case but which has a tunable parameter that allows for more flexible distributions.