Such learning tasks can typically be characterized by the existence of a model and a loss function. A fitted model of complexity k is a function of the data points D and depends on a specific set of fitted parameters B. The loss function (goodnessof-fit) is a functional of the model and maps each specific model to a scalar used to evaluate the model, e.g., likelihood for density estimation or sum-of-squares for regression. Figure 1 illustrates a typical empirical curve for loss function versus complexity, for mixtures of Markov models fitted to a large data set of 900,000 sequences. The complexity k is the number of Markov models being used in the mixture (see Cadez et al. (2000) for further details on the model and the data set). The empirical curve has a distinctly concave appearance, with large relative gains in fit for low complexity models and much more modest relative gains for high complexity models.

High dimensional data modeling is difficult mainly because the so-called "curse of dimensionality". We propose a technique called "Gaussianization" for high dimensional density estimation, which alleviates the curse of dimensionality by exploiting the independence structures in the data. Gaussianization is motivated from recent developments in the statistics literature: projection pursuit, independent component analysis and Gaussian mixture models with semi-tied covariances. We propose an iterative Gaussianization procedure which converges weakly: at each iteration, the data is first transformed to the least dependent coordinates and then each coordinate is marginally Gaussianized by univariate techniques. Gaussianization offers density estimation sharper than traditional kernel methods and radial basis function methods.

We present a simple sparse greedy technique to approximate the maximum a posteriori estimate of Gaussian Processes with much improved scaling behaviour in the sample size m.

The neurons in these networks are the random variables, whereas the connections between them model the causal dependencies. Usually, some of the nodes have a direct relation with the random variables in the problem and are called'visibles'. The other nodes, known as'hiddens', are used to model more complex probability distributions. Learning in graphical models can be done as long as the likelihood that the visibles correspond to a pattern in the data set, can be computed. In general the time it takes, scales exponentially with the number of hidden neurons.

Many algorithms for approximate reinforcement learning are not known to converge. In fact, there are counterexamples showing that the adjustable weights in some algorithms may oscillate within a region rather than converging to a point. This paper shows that, for two popular algorithms, such oscillation is the worst that can happen: the weights cannot diverge, but instead must converge to a bounded region. The algorithms are SARSA(O) and V(O); the latter algorithm was used in the well-known TD-Gammon program. 1 Introduction Although there are convergent online algorithms (such as TD()') [1]) for learning the parameters of a linear approximation to the value function of a Markov process, no way is known to extend these convergence proofs to the task of online approximation of either the state-value (V*) or the action-value (Q*) function of a general Markov decision process. In fact, there are known counterexamples to many proposed algorithms.

We propose a method of approximate dynamic programming for Markov decision processes (MDPs) using algebraic decision diagrams (ADDs). We produce near-optimal value functions and policies with much lower time and space requirements than exact dynamic programming. Our method reduces the sizes of the intermediate value functions generated during value iteration by replacing the values at the terminals of the ADD with ranges of values. Our method is demonstrated on a class of large MDPs (with up to 34 billion states), and we compare the results with the optimal value functions.

We study the problem of combining the outcomes of several different classifiers in a way that provides a coherent inference that satisfies some constraints. In particular, we develop two general approaches for an important subproblem - identifying phrase structure. The first is a Markovian approach that extends standard HMMs to allow the use of a rich observation structure and of general classifiers to model state-observation dependencies. The second is an extension of constraint satisfaction formalisms. We develop efficient combination algorithms under both models and study them experimentally in the context of shallow parsing.

In this paper we will discuss a variational mean-field theory and its application to BNs, sigmoidal BNs in particular. We present a variational derivation of the mean-field theory, proposed by Plefka[2].

One way to approximate inference in richly-connected graphical models is to apply the sum-product algorithm (a.k.a. The sum-product algorithm can be directly applied in Gaussian networks and in graphs for coding, but for many conditional probability functions - including the sigmoid function - direct application of the sum-product algorithm is not possible. We introduce "accumulator networks" that have low local complexity (but exponential global complexity) so the sum-product algorithm can be directly applied. In an accumulator network, the probability of a child given its parents is computed by accumulating the inputs from the parents in a Markov chain or more generally a tree. After giving expressions for inference and learning in accumulator networks, we give results on the "bars problem" and on the problem of extracting translated, overlapping faces from an image. 1 Introduction Graphical probability models with hidden variables are capable of representing complex dependencies between variables, filling in missing data and making Bayesoptimal decisions using probabilistic inferences (Hinton and Sejnowski 1986; Pearl 1988; Neal 1992).

Antarctica contains the most fertile meteorite hunting grounds on Earth. The pristine, dry and cold environment ensures that meteorites deposited there are preserved for long periods. Subsequent glacial flow of the ice sheets where they land concentrates them in particular areas. To date, most meteorites recovered throughout history have been done so in Antarctica in the last 20 years. Furthermore, they are less likely to be contaminated by terrestrial compounds.