We present a simple approach for computing reasonable policies for factored Markov decision processes (MDPs), when the optimal value function can be approximated by a compact linear form. Our method is based on solving a single linear program that approximates the best linear fit to the optimal value function. By applying an efficient constraint generation procedure we obtain an iterative solution method that tackles concise linear programs. This direct linear programming approach experimentally yields a significant reduction in computation time over approximate value-and policy-iteration methods (sometimes reducing several hours to a few seconds). However, the quality of the solutions produced by linear programming is weaker-usually about twice the approximation error for the same approximating class. Nevertheless, the speed advantage allows one to use larger approximation classes to achieve similar error in reasonable time.

Many domains are naturally organized in an abstraction hierarchy or taxonomy, where the instances in "nearby" classes in the taxonomy are similar. In this paper, we provide a general probabilistic framework for clustering data into a set of classes organized as a taxonomy, where each class is associated with a probabilistic model from which the data was generated. The clustering algorithm simultaneously optimizes three things: the assignment of data instances to clusters, the models associated with the clusters, and the structure of the abstraction hierarchy. A unique feature of our approach is that it utilizes global optimization algorithms for both of the last two steps, reducing the sensitivity to noise and the propensity to local maxima that are characteristic of algorithms such as hierarchical agglomerative clustering that only take local steps. We provide a theoretical analysis for our algorithm, showing that it converges to a local maximum of the joint likelihood of model and data.

Discriminative classifiers model the posterior p(ylx) directly, or learn a direct map from inputs x to the class labels. There are several compelling reasons for using discriminative rather than generative classifiers, one of which, succinctly articulated by Vapnik [6], is that "one should solve the [classification] problem directly and never solve a more general problem as an intermediate step [such as modeling p(xly)]." Indeed, leaving aside computational issues and matters such as handling missing data, the prevailing consensus seems to be that discriminative classifiers are almost always to be preferred to generative ones. Another piece of prevailing folk wisdom is that the number of examples needed to fit a model is often roughly linear in the number of free parameters of a model. This has its theoretical basis in the observation that for "many" models, the VC dimension is roughly linear or at most some low-order polynomial in the number of parameters (see, e.g., [1, 3]), and it is known that sample complexity in the discriminative setting is linear in the VC dimension [6]. In this paper, we study empirically and theoretically the extent to which these beliefs are true. A parametric family of probabilistic models p(x, y) can be fit either to optimize the joint likelihood of the inputs and the labels, or fit to optimize the conditional likelihood p(ylx), or even fit to minimize the 0-1 training error obtained by thresholding p(ylx) to make predictions.

The mutual information of two random variables z and J with joint probabilities {7rij} is commonly used in learning Bayesian nets as well as in many other fields. The chances 7rij are usually estimated by the empirical sampling frequency nij In leading to a point estimate J(nij In) for the mutual information. To answer questions like "is J (nij In) consistent with zero?" or "what is the probability that the true mutual information is much larger than the point estimate?"

We present an algorithm that induces a class of models with thin junction trees--models that are characterized by an upper bound on the size of the maximal cliques of their triangulated graph. By ensuring that the junction tree is thin, inference in our models remains tractable throughout the learning process. This allows both an efficient implementation of an iterative scaling parameter estimation algorithm and also ensures that inference can be performed efficiently with the final model. We illustrate the approach with applications in handwritten digit recognition and DNA splice site detection.

Over the last years, particle filters have been applied with great success to a variety of state estimation problems. We present a statistical approach to increasing the efficiency of particle filters by adapting the size of sample sets on-the-fly. The key idea of the KLD-sampling method is to bound the approximation error introduced by the sample-based representation of the particle filter. The name KLD-sampling is due to the fact that we measure the approximation error by the Kullback-Leibler distance. Our adaptation approach chooses a small number of samples if the density is focused on a small part of the state space, and it chooses a large number of samples if the state uncertainty is high. Both the implementation and computation overhead of this approach are small. Extensive experiments using mobile robot localization as a test application show that our approach yields drastic improvements over particle filters with fixed sample set sizes and over a previously introduced adaptation technique.

Singularities are ubiquitous in the parameter space of hierarchical models such as multilayer perceptrons. At singularities, the Fisher information matrix degenerates, and the Cramer-Rao paradigm does no more hold, implying that the classical model selection theory such as AIC and MDL cannot be applied. It is important to study the relation between the generalization error and the training error at singularities. The present paper demonstrates a method of analyzing these errors both for the maximum likelihood estimator and the Bayesian predictive distribution in terms of Gaussian random fields, by using simple models. 1 Introduction A neural network is specified by a number of parameters which are synaptic weights and biases. Learning takes place by modifying these parameters from observed input-output examples.

This paper presents reinforcement learning with a Long Short Term Memory recurrent neural network: RL-LSTM. Model-free RL-LSTM using Advantage(,x) learning and directed exploration can solve non-Markovian tasks with long-term dependencies between relevant events. This is demonstrated in a T-maze task, as well as in a difficult variation of the pole balancing task. 1 Introduction Reinforcement learning (RL) is a way of learning how to behave based on delayed reward signals [12]. Among the more important challenges for RL are tasks where part of the state of the environment is hidden from the agent. Such tasks are called non-Markovian tasks or Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes. Many real world tasks have this problem of hidden state. For instance, in a navigation task different positions in the environment may look the same, but one and the same action may lead to different next states or rewards. Thus, hidden state makes RL more realistic.

A nonlinear supervised learning model, the Specialized Mappings Architecture (SMA), is described and applied to the estimation of human body pose from monocular images. The SMA consists of several specialized forward mapping functions and an inverse mapping function. Each specialized function maps certain domains of the input space (image features) onto the output space (body pose parameters). The key algorithmic problems faced are those of learning the specialized domains and mapping functions in an optimal way, as well as performing inference given inputs and knowledge of the inverse function. Solutions to these problems employ the EM algorithm and alternating choices of conditional independence assumptions. Performance of the approach is evaluated with synthetic and real video sequences of human motion.

We propose a novel method for the analysis of sequential data that exhibits an inherent mode switching. In particular, the data might be a non-stationary time series from a dynamical system that switches between multiple operating modes. Unlike other approaches, our method processes the data incrementally and without any training of internal parameters. We use an HMM with a dynamically changing number of states and an online variant of the Viterbi algorithm that performs an unsupervised segmentation and classification of the data on-the-fly, i.e. the method is able to process incoming data in real-time. The main idea of the approach is to track and segment changes of the probability density of the data in a sliding window on the incoming data stream.