We discuss algorithms for estimating the Shannon entropy h of finite symbol sequences with long range correlations. In particular, we consider algorithms which estimate h from the code lengths produced by some compression algorithm. Our interest is in describing their convergence with sequence length, assuming no limits for the space and time complexities of the compression algorithms. A scaling law is proposed for extrapolation from finite sample lengths. This is applied to sequences of dynamical systems in non-trivial chaotic regimes, a 1-D cellular automaton, and to written English texts.

This article is an edited transcript of a lecture given at IJCAI-99, Stockholm, Sweden, on 4 August 1999. The article summarizes concepts, principles, and tools that were found useful in applications involving causal modeling. The principles are based on structural-model semantics in which functional (or counterfactual) relationships representing autonomous physical processes are the fundamental building blocks. The article presents the conceptual basis of this semantics, illustrates its application in simple problems, and discusses its ramifications to computational and cognitive problems concerning causation.

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide useful tools for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing the topology of environments such as road networks and office buildings, which are typical for robot navigation and planning. The work presented here describes a formal framework for incorporating readily available odometric information and geometrical constraints into both the models and the algorithm that learns them. By taking advantage of such information, learning HMMs/POMDPs can be made to generate better solutions and require fewer iterations, while being robust in the face of data reduction. Experimental results, obtained from both simulated and real robot data, demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

We propose a general Bayesian framework for performing independent (leA) which relies on ensemble learning and linearcomponent analysis response theory known from statistical physics. We apply it to both discrete and continuous sources. For the continuous source the underdetermined (overcomplete) case is studied. The naive mean-field approach fails in this case whereas linear response theory-which gives an improved estimate of covariances-is very efficient. The examples given are for sources without temporal correlations. However, this derivation can easily to treat temporal correlations. Finally, the frameworkbe extended of generating new leA algorithms without needingoffers a simple way to define the prior distribution of the sources explicitly.

We propose a novel probabilistic framework for semantic video indexing. We define probabilistic multimedia objects (multijects) to map low-level media features to high-level semantic labels.

A serious problem in learning probabilistic models is the presence of hidden variables. These variables are not observed, yet interact with several of the observed variables. As such, they induce seemingly complex dependencies among the latter. In recent years, much attention has been devoted to the development of algorithms for learning parameters, and in some cases structure, in the presence of hidden variables. In this paper, we address the related problem of detecting hidden variables that interact with the observed variables.

Recent work has exploited boundedness of data in the unsupervised learning of new types of generative model. For nonnegative data it was recently shown that the maximum-entropy generative model is a Nonnegative Boltzmann Distribution not a Gaussian distribution, when the model is constrained to match the first and second order statistics of the data. Learning for practical sized problems is made difficult by the need to compute expectations under the model distribution. The computational cost of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and low fidelity of naive mean field techniques has led to increasing interest in advanced mean field theories and variational methods. Here I present a secondorder mean-field approximation for the Nonnegative Boltzmann Machine model, obtained using a "high-temperature" expansion. The theory is tested on learning a bimodal 2-dimensional model, a high-dimensional translationally invariant distribution, and a generative model for handwritten digits.

Variational approximations are becoming a widespread tool for Bayesian learning of graphical models. We provide some theoretical results for the variational updates in a very general family of conjugate-exponential graphical models. We show how the belief propagation and the junction tree algorithms can be used in the inference step of variational Bayesian learning. Applying these results to the Bayesian analysis of linear-Gaussian state-space models we obtain a learning procedure that exploits the Kalman smoothing propagation, while integrating over all model parameters. We demonstrate how this can be used to infer the hidden state dimensionality of the state-space model in a variety of synthetic problems and one real high-dimensional data set. 1 Introduction Bayesian approaches to machine learning have several desirable properties.

We use graphical models to explore the question of how people learn simple causal relationships from data. The two leading psychological theories can both be seen as estimating the parameters of a fixed graph. We argue that a complete account of causal induction should also consider how people learn the underlying causal graph structure, and we propose to model this inductive process as a Bayesian inference. Our argument is supported through the discussion of three data sets. 1 Introduction Causality plays a central role in human mental life. Our behavior depends upon our understanding of the causal structure of our environment, and we are remarkably good at inferring causation from mere observation. Constructing formal models of causal induction is currently a major focus of attention in computer science [7], psychology [3,6], and philosophy [5]. This paper attempts to connect these literatures, by framing the debate between two major psychological theories in the computational language of graphical models. We show that existing theories equate human causal induction with maximum likelihood parameter estimation on a fixed graphical structure, and we argue that to fully account for human behavioral data, we must also postulate that people make Bayesian inferences about the underlying causal graph structure itself.

Antarctica contains the most fertile meteorite hunting grounds on Earth. The pristine, dry and cold environment ensures that meteorites deposited there are preserved for long periods. Subsequent glacial flow of the ice sheets where they land concentrates them in particular areas. To date, most meteorites recovered throughout history have been done so in Antarctica in the last 20 years. Furthermore, they are less likely to be contaminated by terrestrial compounds.