We propose a novel method for the analysis of sequential data that exhibits an inherent mode switching. In particular, the data might be a non-stationary time series from a dynamical system that switches between multiple operating modes. Unlike other approaches, our method processes the data incrementally and without any training of internal parameters. We use an HMM with a dynamically changing number of states and an online variant of the Viterbi algorithm that performs an unsupervised segmentation and classification of the data on-the-fly, i.e. the method is able to process incoming data in real-time. The main idea of the approach is to track and segment changes of the probability density of the data in a sliding window on the incoming data stream.

In previous work on "transformed mixtures of Gaussians" and "transformed hidden Markov models", we showed how the EM algorithm in a discrete latent variable model can be used to jointly normalize data (e.g., center images, pitch-normalize spectrograms) and learn a mixture model of the normalized data. The only input to the algorithm is the data, a list of possible transformations, and the number of clusters to find. The main criticism of this work was that the exhaustive computation of the posterior probabilities over transformations would make scaling up to large feature vectors and large sets of transformations intractable. Here, we describe how a tremendous speedup is acheived through the use of a variational technique for decoupling transformations, and a fast Fourier transform method for computing posterior probabilities.

Over the last years, particle filters have been applied with great success to a variety of state estimation problems. We present a statistical approach to increasing the efficiency of particle filters by adapting the size of sample sets on-the-fly. The key idea of the KLD-sampling method is to bound the approximation error introduced by the sample-based representation of the particle filter. The name KLD-sampling is due to the fact that we measure the approximation error by the Kullback-Leibler distance. Our adaptation approach chooses a small number of samples if the density is focused on a small part of the state space, and it chooses a large number of samples if the state uncertainty is high. Both the implementation and computation overhead of this approach are small. Extensive experiments using mobile robot localization as a test application show that our approach yields drastic improvements over particle filters with fixed sample set sizes and over a previously introduced adaptation technique.

In this paper we introduce a new sparseness inducing prior which does not involve any (hyper)parameters that need to be adjusted or estimated. Although other applications are possible, we focus here on supervised learning problems: regression and classification. Experiments with several publicly available benchmark data sets show that the proposed approach yields state-of-the-art performance. In particular, our method outperforms support vector machines and performs competitively with the best alternative techniques, both in terms of error rates and sparseness, although it involves no tuning or adjusting of sparsenesscontrolling hyper-parameters.

The adaptive TAP Gibbs free energy for a general densely connected probabilistic model with quadratic interactions and arbritary single site constraints is derived. We show how a specific sequential minimization of the free energy leads to a generalization of Minka's expectation propagation. Lastly, we derive a sparse representation version of the sequential algorithm. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated on classification and density estimation with Gaussian processes and on an independent component analysis problem.

We describe the application of kernel methods to Natural Language Processing (NLP) problems. In many NLP tasks the objects being modeled are strings, trees, graphs or other discrete structures which require some mechanism to convert them into feature vectors. We describe kernels for various natural language structures, allowing rich, high dimensional representations of these structures. We show how a kernel over trees can be applied to parsing using the voted perceptron algorithm, and we give experimental results on the ATIS corpus of parse trees.

We propose a generative model for text and other collections of discrete data that generalizes or improves on several previous models including naive Bayes/unigram, mixture of unigrams [6], and Hofmann's aspect model, also known as probabilistic latent semantic indexing (pLSI) [3]. In the context of text modeling, our model posits that each document is generated as a mixture of topics, where the continuous-valued mixture proportions are distributed as a latent Dirichlet random variable. Inference and learning are carried out efficiently via variational algorithms.

We show that it is possible to extend hidden Markov models to have a countably infinite number of hidden states. By using the theory of Dirichlet processes we can implicitly integrate out the infinitely many transition parameters, leaving only three hyperparameters which can be learned from data. These three hyperparameters define a hierarchical Dirichlet process capable of capturing a rich set of transition dynamics. The three hyperparameters control the time scale of the dynamics, the sparsity of the underlying state-transition matrix, and the expected number of distinct hidden states in a finite sequence. In this framework it is also natural to allow the alphabet of emitted symbols to be infinite-- consider, for example, symbols being possible words appearing in English text.

We present an algorithm that induces a class of models with thin junction trees--models that are characterized by an upper bound on the size of the maximal cliques of their triangulated graph. By ensuring that the junction tree is thin, inference in our models remains tractable throughout the learning process. This allows both an efficient implementation of an iterative scaling parameter estimation algorithm and also ensures that inference can be performed efficiently with the final model. We illustrate the approach with applications in handwritten digit recognition and DNA splice site detection.

SMC is often referred to as particle filtering (PF) in the context of computing filtering distributions for statistical inference and learning. It is known that the performance of PF often deteriorates in high-dimensional state spaces. In the past, we have shown that if a model admits partial analytical tractability, it is possible to combine PF with exact algorithms (Kalman filters, HMM filters, junction tree algorithm) to obtain efficient high dimensional filters (Doucet, de Freitas, Murphy and Russell 2000, Doucet, Godsill and Andrieu 2000). In particular, we exploited a marginalisation technique known as Rao-Blackwellisation (RB). Here, we attack a more complex model that does not admit immediate analytical tractability.