In pattern classification tasks, errors are introduced because of differences between the true model and the one obtained via model estimation. Using likelihood-ratio based classification, it is possible to correct for this discrepancy by finding class-pair specific terms to adjust the likelihood ratio directly, and that can make class-pair preference relationships intransitive. In this work, we introduce new methodology that makes necessary corrections to the likelihood ratio, specifically those that are necessary to achieve perfect classification (but not perfect likelihood-ratio correction which can be overkill). The new corrections, while weaker than previously reported such adjustments, are analytically challenging since they involve discontinuous functions, therefore requiring several approximations. We test a number of these new schemes on an isolatedword speech recognition task as well as on the UCI machine learning data sets. Results show that by using the bias terms calculated in this new way, classification accuracy can substantially improve over both the baseline and over our previous results.

The detection and pose estimation of people in images and video is made challenging by the variability of human appearance, the complexity of natural scenes, and the high dimensionality of articulated body models. To cope with these problems we represent the 3D human body as a graphical model in which the relationships between the body parts are represented by conditional probability distributions. We formulate the pose estimation problem as one of probabilistic inference over a graphical model where the random variables correspond to the individual limb parameters (position and orientation). Because the limbs are described by 6-dimensional vectors encoding pose in 3-space, discretization is impractical and the random variables in our model must be continuousvalued. To approximate belief propagation in such a graph we exploit a recently introduced generalization of the particle filter. This framework facilitates the automatic initialization of the body-model from low level cues and is robust to occlusion of body parts and scene clutter.

We develop a protocol for optimizing dynamic behavior of a network of simple electronic components, such as a sensor network, an ad hoc network of mobile devices, or a network of communication switches. This protocol requires only local communication and simple computations which are distributed among devices. The protocol is scalable to large networks. As a motivating example, we discuss a problem involving optimization of power consumption, delay, and buffer overflow in a sensor network. Our approach builds on policy gradient methods for optimization of Markov decision processes. The protocol can be viewed as an extension of policy gradient methods to a context involving a team of agents optimizing aggregate performance through asynchronous distributed communication and computation. We establish that the dynamics of the protocol approximate the solution to an ordinary differential equation that follows the gradient of the performance objective.

Recent multi-agent extensions of Q-Learning require knowledge of other agents' payoffs and Q-functions, and assume game-theoretic play at all times by all other agents. This paper proposes a fundamentally different approach, dubbed "Hyper-Q" Learning, in which values of mixed strategies rather than base actions are learned, and in which other agents' strategies are estimated from observed actions via Bayesian inference. Hyper-Q may be effective against many different types of adaptive agents, even if they are persistently dynamic. Against certain broad categories of adaptation, it is argued that Hyper-Q may converge to exact optimal time-varying policies. In tests using Rock-Paper-Scissors, Hyper-Q learns to significantly exploit an Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent (IGA) player, as well as a Policy Hill Climber (PHC) player. Preliminary analysis of Hyper-Q against itself is also presented.

To provide a compact generative representation of the sequential activity of a number of individuals within a group there is a tradeoff between the definition of individual specific and global models. This paper proposes a linear-time distributed model for finite state symbolic sequences representing traces of individual user activity by making the assumption that heterogeneous user behavior may be'explained' by a relatively small number of common structurally simple behavioral patterns which may interleave randomly in a user-specific proportion. The results of an empirical study on three different sources of user traces indicates that this modelling approach provides an efficient representation scheme, reflected by improved prediction performance as well as providing lowcomplexity and intuitively interpretable representations.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate infinity-sample properties of risk minimization based multi-category classification methods. These methods can be considered as natural extensions to binary large margin classification. We establish conditions that guarantee the infinity-sample consistency of classifiers obtained in the risk minimization framework. Examples are provided for two specific forms of the general formulation, which extend a number of known methods. Using these examples, we show that some risk minimization formulations can also be used to obtain conditional probability estimates for the underlying problem. Such conditional probability information will be useful for statistical inferencing tasks beyond classification.

We describe a new approximation algorithm for solving partially observable MDPs. Our bounded policy iteration approach searches through the space of bounded-size, stochastic finite state controllers, combining several advantages of gradient ascent (efficiency, search through restricted controller space) and policy iteration (less vulnerability to local optima).

In applying Hidden Markov Models to the analysis of massive data streams, it is often necessary to use an artificially reduced set of states; this is due in large part to the fact that the basic HMM estimation algorithms have a quadratic dependence on the size of the state set. We present algorithms that reduce this computational bottleneck to linear or near-linear time, when the states can be embedded in an underlying grid of parameters. This type of state representation arises in many domains; in particular, we show an application to traffic analysis at a high-volume Web site.

We describe a Markov chain method for sampling from the distribution of the hidden state sequence in a nonlinear dynamical system, given a sequence of observations. This method updates all states in the sequence simultaneously using an embedded Hidden Markov Model (HMM). An update begins with the creation of "pools" of candidate states at each time. We then define an embedded HMM whose states are indexes within these pools. Using a forward-backward dynamic programming algorithm, we can efficiently choose a state sequence with the appropriate probabilities from the exponentially large number of state sequences that pass through states in these pools. We illustrate the method in a simple one-dimensional example, and in an example showing how an embedded HMM can be used to in effect discretize the state space without any discretization error. We also compare the embedded HMM to a particle smoother on a more substantial problem of inferring human motion from 2D traces of markers.

We address the problem of learning topic hierarchies from data. The model selection problem in this domain is daunting--which of the large collection of possible trees to use? We take a Bayesian approach, generating anappropriate prior via a distribution on partitions that we refer to as the nested Chinese restaurant process. This nonparametric prior allows arbitrarilylarge branching factors and readily accommodates growing data collections. We build a hierarchical topic model by combining this prior with a likelihood that is based on a hierarchical variant of latent Dirichlet allocation. We illustrate our approach on simulated data and with an application to the modeling of NIPS abstracts.