We present a novel method for approximate inference in Bayesian models and regularized risk functionals. It is based on the propagation of mean and variance derived from the Laplace approximation of conditional probabilities in factorizing distributions, much akin to Minka's Expectation Propagation. In the jointly normal case, it coincides with the latter and belief propagation, whereas in the general case, it provides an optimization strategy containing Support Vector chunking, the Bayes Committee Machine, and Gaussian Process chunking as special cases.

Recent work has examined the estimation of models of stimulus-driven neural activity in which some linear filtering process is followed by a nonlinear, probabilistic spiking stage. We analyze the estimation of one such model for which this nonlinear step is implemented by a noisy, leaky, integrate-and-fire mechanism with a spike-dependent aftercurrent. This model is a biophysically plausible alternative to models with Poisson (memory-less) spiking, and has been shown to effectively reproduce various spiking statistics of neurons in vivo. However, the problem of estimating the model from extracellular spike train data has not been examined in depth. We formulate the problem in terms of maximum likelihood estimation, and show that the computational problem of maximizing the likelihood is tractable.

We address the problem of learning topic hierarchies from data. The model selection problem in this domain is daunting--which of the large collection of possible trees to use? We take a Bayesian approach, generating an appropriate prior via a distribution on partitions that we refer to as the nested Chinese restaurant process. This nonparametric prior allows arbitrarily large branching factors and readily accommodates growing data collections. We build a hierarchical topic model by combining this prior with a likelihood that is based on a hierarchical variant of latent Dirichlet allocation. We illustrate our approach on simulated data and with an application to the modeling of NIPS abstracts.

The bootstrap has become a popular method for exploring model (structure) uncertainty. Our experiments with artificial and realworld data demonstrate that the graphs learned from bootstrap samples can be severely biased towards too complex graphical models. Accounting for this bias is hence essential, e.g., when exploring model uncertainty. We find that this bias is intimately tied to (well-known) spurious dependences induced by the bootstrap. The leading-order bias-correction equals one half of Akaike's penalty for model complexity. We demonstrate the effect of this simple bias-correction in our experiments. We also relate this bias to the bias of the plugin estimator for entropy, as well as to the difference between the expected test and training errors of a graphical model, which asymptotically equals Akaike's penalty (rather than one half).

In this paper we present Discriminative Random Fields (DRF), a discriminative framework for the classification of natural image regions by incorporating neighborhood spatial dependencies in the labels as well as the observed data. The proposed model exploits local discriminative models and allows to relax the assumption of conditional independence of the observed data given the labels, commonly used in the Markov Random Field (MRF) framework. The parameters of the DRF model are learned using penalized maximum pseudo-likelihood method. Furthermore, the form of the DRF model allows the MAP inference for binary classification problems using the graph min-cut algorithms. The performance of the model was verified on the synthetic as well as the real-world images. The DRF model outperforms the MRF model in the experiments.

When we learn a new motor skill, we have to contend with both the variability inherent in our sensors and the task. The sensory uncertainty can be reduced by using information about the distribution of previously experienced tasks. Here we impose a distribution on a novel sensorimotor task and manipulate the variability of the sensory feedback. We show that subjects internally represent both the distribution of the task as well as their sensory uncertainty. Moreover, they combine these two sources of information in a way that is qualitatively predicted by optimal Bayesian processing. We further analyze if the subjects can represent multimodal distributions such as mixtures of Gaussians. The results show that the CNS employs probabilistic models during sensorimotor learning even when the priors are multimodal.

When we model a higher order functions, such as learning and memory, we face a difficulty of comparing neural activities with hidden variables that depend on the history of sensory and motor signals and the dynamics of the network. Here, we propose novel method for estimating hidden variables of a learning agent, such as connection weights from sequences of observable variables. Bayesian estimation is a method to estimate the posterior probability of hidden variables from observable data sequence using a dynamic model of hidden and observable variables. In this paper, we apply particle filter for estimating internal parameters and metaparameters of a reinforcement learning model. We verified the effectiveness of the method using both artificial data and real animal behavioral data.

In this paper we obtain convergence bounds for the concentration of Bayesian posterior distributions (around the true distribution) using a novel method that simplifies and enhances previous results. Based on the analysis, we also introduce a generalized family of Bayesian posteriors, and show that the convergence behavior of these generalized posteriors is completely determined by the local prior structure around the true distribution. This important and surprising robustness property does not hold for the standard Bayesian posterior in that it may not concentrate when there exist "bad" prior structures even at places far away from the true distribution.

We consider learning to classify cognitive states of human subjects, based on their brain activity observed via functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). This problem is important because such classifiers constitute "virtual sensors" of hidden cognitive states, which may be useful in cognitive science research and clinical applications. In recent work, Mitchell, et al. [6,7,9] have demonstrated the feasibility of training such classifiers for individual human subjects (e.g., to distinguish whether the subject is reading an ambiguous or unambiguous sentence, or whether they are reading a noun or a verb). Here we extend that line of research, exploring how to train classifiers that can be applied across multiple human subjects, including subjects who were not involved in training the classifier. We describe the design of several machine learning approaches to training multiple-subject classifiers, and report experimental results demonstrating the success of these methods in learning cross-subject classifiers for two different fMRI data sets.

Approximate linear programming (ALP) has emerged recently as one of the most promising methods for solving complex factored MDPs with finite state spaces. In this work we show that ALP solutions are not limited only to MDPs with finite state spaces, but that they can also be applied successfully to factored continuous-state MDPs (CMDPs). We show how one can build an ALPbased approximation for such a model and contrast it to existing solution methods. We argue that this approach offers a robust alternative for solving high dimensional continuous-state space problems. The point is supported by experiments on three CMDP problems with 24-25 continuous state factors.