We consider Bayesian mixture approaches, where a predictor is constructed by forming a weighted average of hypotheses from some space of functions. While such procedures are known to lead to optimal predictors in several cases, where sufficiently accurate prior information is available, it has not been clear how they perform when some of the prior assumptions are violated. In this paper we establish data-dependent bounds for such procedures, extending previous randomized approaches such as the Gibbs algorithm to a fully Bayesian setting. The finite-sample guarantees established in this work enable the utilization of Bayesian mixture approaches in agnostic settings, where the usual assumptions of the Bayesian paradigm fail to hold. Moreover, the bounds derived can be directly applied to non-Bayesian mixture approaches such as Bagging and Boosting.

An essential step in understanding the function of sensory nervous systems isto characterize as accurately as possible the stimulus-response function (SRF) of the neurons that relay and process sensory information. Oneincreasingly common experimental approach is to present a rapidly varying complex stimulus to the animal while recording the responses ofone or more neurons, and then to directly estimate a functional transformation of the input that accounts for the neuronal firing. The estimation techniques usually employed, such as Wiener filtering or other correlation-based estimation of the Wiener or Volterra kernels, are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation in a Gaussian-output-noise regression model. We explore the use of Bayesian evidence-optimization techniques to condition these estimates. We show that by learning hyperparameters thatcontrol the smoothness and sparsity of the transfer function it is possible to improve dramatically the quality of SRF estimates, as measured by their success in predicting responses to novel input.

Cortical synaptic plasticity depends on the relative timing of pre-and postsynaptic spikes and also on the temporal pattern of presynaptic spikes and of postsynaptic spikes. We study the hypothesis that cortical synaptic plasticitydoes not associate individual spikes, but rather whole firing episodes,and depends only on when these episodes start and how long they last, but as little as possible on the timing of individual spikes. Here we present the mathematical background for such a study. Standard methodsfrom hidden Markov models are used to define what "firing episodes" are. Estimating the probability of being in such an episode requires not only the knowledge of past spikes, but also of future spikes. We show how to construct a causal learning rule, which depends only on past spikes, but associates pre-and postsynaptic firing episodes as if it also knew future spikes. We also show that this learning rule agrees with some features of synaptic plasticity in superficial layers of rat visual cortex (Froemke and Dan, Nature 416:433, 2002).

We consider a statistical framework for learning in a class of networks ofspiking neurons. Our aim is to show how optimal local learning rules can be readily derived once the neural dynamics and desired functionality of the neural assembly have been specified, in contrast to other models which assume (sub-optimal) learning rules. Within this framework we derive local rules for learning temporal sequencesin a model of spiking neurons and demonstrate its superior performance to correlation (Hebbian) based approaches. We further show how to include mechanisms such as synaptic depression andoutline how the framework is readily extensible to learning in networks of highly complex spiking neurons. A stochastic quantalvesicle release mechanism is considered and implications on the complexity of learning discussed.

We argue that human inductive generalization is best explained in a Bayesian framework, rather than by traditional models based on similarity computations.We go beyond previous work on Bayesian concept learning by introducing an unsupervised method for constructing flexible hypothesisspaces, and we propose a version of the Bayesian Occam's razorthat trades off priors and likelihoods to prevent under-or over-generalization in these flexible spaces. We analyze two published data sets on inductive reasoning as well as the results of a new behavioral study that we have carried out.

People routinely make sophisticated causal inferences unconsciously, effortlessly, andfrom very little data - often from just one or a few observations. Weargue that these inferences can be explained as Bayesian computations over a hypothesis space of causal graphical models, shaped by strong top-down prior knowledge in the form of intuitive theories.

We present an account of human concept learning-that is, learning of categories from examples-based on the principle of minimum description length(MDL). In support of this theory, we tested a wide range of two-dimensional concept types, including both regular (simple) and highly irregular (complex) structures, and found the MDL theory to give a good account of subjects' performance. This suggests that the intrinsic complexityofa concept (that is, its description -length) systematically influences its leamability.

We explore the consequences of viewing semantic association as the result of attempting to predict the concepts likely to arise in a particular context. We argue that the success of existing accounts of semantic representation comes as a result of indirectly addressing this problem, and show that a closer correspondence to human data can be obtained by taking a probabilistic approach that explicitly models the generative structure of language.

A wide range of sensor-rich, networked embedded systems are being created that must operate robustly for years in the face of novel failures by managing complex autonomic processes. These systems are being composed, for example, into vast networks of space, air, ground, and underwater vehicles. Our objective is to revolutionize the way in which we control these new artifacts by creating reactive model-based programming languages that enable everyday systems to reason intelligently and enable machines to explore other worlds. A model-based program is state and fault aware; it elevates the programming task to specifying intended state evolutions of a system. The program's executive automatically coordinates system interactions to achieve these states, entertaining known and potential failures, using models of its constituents and environment. At the executive's core is a method, called CONFLICT-DIRECTED A*, which quickly prunes promising but infeasible solutions, using a form of one-shot learning. This approach has been demonstrated on a range of systems, including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Deep Space One probe. Model-based programming is being generalized to hybrid discrete-continuous systems and the coordination of networks of robotic vehicles.

Imitation can be viewed as a means of enhancing learning in multiagent environments. It augments an agent's ability to learn useful behaviors by making intelligent use of the knowledge implicit in behaviors demonstrated by cooperative teachers or other more experienced agents. We propose and study a formal model of implicit imitation that can accelerate reinforcement learning dramatically in certain cases. Roughly, by observing a mentor, a reinforcement-learning agent can extract information about its own capabilities in, and the relative value of, unvisited parts of the state space. We study two specific instantiations of this model, one in which the learning agent and the mentor have identical abilities, and one designed to deal with agents and mentors with different action sets. We illustrate the benefits of implicit imitation by integrating it with prioritized sweeping, and demonstrating improved performance and convergence through observation of single and multiple mentors. Though we make some stringent assumptions regarding observability and possible interactions, we briefly comment on extensions of the model that relax these restricitions.