The application of latent/hidden variable Dynamic Bayesian Networks isconstrained by the complexity of marginalising over latent variables. For this reason either small latent dimensions or Gaussian latentconditional tables linearly dependent on past states are typically considered in order that inference is tractable. We suggest an alternative approach in which the latent variables are modelled using deterministic conditional probability tables.

Using a Markov chain perspective of spectral clustering we present an algorithm to automatically find the number of stable clusters in a dataset. The Markov chain's behaviour is characterized by the spectral properties of the matrix of transition probabilities, from which we derive eigenflows along with their halflives. An eigenflow describes the flow of probability massdue to the Markov chain, and it is characterized by its eigenvalue, orequivalently, by the halflife of its decay as the Markov chain is iterated. A ideal stable cluster is one with zero eigenflow and infinite half-life.The key insight in this paper is that bottlenecks between weakly coupled clusters can be identified by computing the sensitivity of the eigenflow's halflife to variations in the edge weights. We propose a novel EIGENCUTS algorithm to perform clustering that removes these identified bottlenecks in an iterative fashion.

We present a simple direct approach for solving the ICA problem, using density estimation and maximum likelihood. Given a candidate orthogonalframe, we model each of the coordinates using a semi-parametric density estimate based on cubic splines. Since our estimates have two continuous derivatives, we can easily run a second ordersearch for the frame parameters. Our method performs very favorably when compared to state-of-the-art techniques. 1 Introduction Independent component analysis (ICA) is a popular enhancement over principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis. IRP which is assumed to arise from a linear mixing of a latent random source vector S E IRP, (1) X AS; the components Sj, j 1, ...,p of S are assumed to be independently distributed.

Several authors have suggested viewing boosting as a gradient descent search for a good fit in function space. We apply gradient-based boosting methodology to the unsupervised learning problem of density estimation. We show convergence properties of the algorithm and prove that a strength of weak learnability property appliesto this problem as well. We illustrate the potential of this approach through experiments with boosting Bayesian networks to learn density models.

In this paper we show how the generation of documents can be thought of as a k-stage Markov process, which leads to a Fisher kernel fromwhich the n-gram and string kernels can be reconstructed. The Fisher kernel view gives a more flexible insight into the string kernel and suggests how it can be parametrised in a way that reflects thestatistics of the training corpus. Furthermore, the probabilistic modellingapproach suggests extending the Markov process to consider subsequences of varying length, rather than the standard fixed-length approach used in the string kernel. We give a procedure for determining which subsequences are informative features and hence generate a Finite State Machine model, which can again be used to obtain a Fisher kernel. By adjusting the parametrisation we can also influence the weighting received by the features. In this way we are able to obtain a logarithmic weighting in a Fisher kernel. Finally, experiments are reported comparing the different kernels using the standard Bag of Words kernel as a baseline.

We investigate Bayesian alternatives to classical Monte Carlo methods for evaluating integrals. Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) allows the incorporation ofprior knowledge, such as smoothness of the integrand, into the estimation. In a simple problem we show that this outperforms any classical importance sampling method. We also attempt more challenging multidimensionalintegrals involved in computing marginal likelihoods ofstatistical models (a.k.a.

We establish a new hardness result that shows that the difficulty of planning infactored Markov decision processes is representational rather than just computational. More precisely, we give a fixed family of factored MDPswith linear rewards whose optimal policies and value functions simply cannot be represented succinctly in any standard parametric form. Previous hardness results indicated that computing good policies from the MDP parameters was difficult, but left open the possibility of succinct function approximation for any fixed factored MDP. Our result applies even to policies which yield a polynomially poor approximation to the optimal value, and highlights interesting connections with the complexity classof Arthur-Merlin games.

A lot of learning machines with hidden variables used in information sciencehave singularities in their parameter spaces. At singularities, the Fisher information matrix becomes degenerate, resulting that the learning theory of regular statistical models does not hold. Recently, it was proven that, if the true parameter is contained in singularities, then the coefficient of the Bayes generalization erroris equal to the pole of the zeta function of the Kullback information.

Classification trees are one of the most popular types of classifiers, with ease of implementation and interpretation being among their attractive features. Despite the widespread use of classification trees, theoretical analysis of their performance is scarce. In this paper, we show that a new family of classification trees, called dyadic classification trees (DCTs), are near optimal (in a minimax sense) for a very broad range of classification problems.This demonstrates that other schemes (e.g., neural networks, support vector machines) cannot perform significantly better than DCTs in many cases. We also show that this near optimal performance isattained with linear (in the number of training data) complexity growing and pruning algorithms. Moreover, the performance of DCTs on benchmark datasets compares favorably to that of standard CART, which is generally more computationally intensive and which does not possess similar near optimality properties. Our analysis stems from theoretical resultson structural risk minimization, on which the pruning rule for DCTs is based.

The information bottleneck (IB) method is an information-theoretic formulation for clustering problems.